Top match for AFC East supremacy!

One of the best third-day matchups the NFL unfortunately hides in the early slot of Sunday games, though it unquestionably deserved a primetime spot. Both teams have positive records and celebrated blowout victories last week. Under these circumstances, the Buffalo Bills welcome the Miami Dolphins for the top game. A bet on a winner is difficult – as the teams meet on equal terms – but by no means impossible. Of course, a win would be huge for both teams in this divisional duel, as both will most likely be competing for the AFC East title until the very end.

The Bills travelled to the capital, to Washington, on the last game day, where they could win clearly against the Commanders. The hosts brought only three points on the scoreboard in the end. The Bills defence was particularly convincing with five turnovers. The turnover battle could certainly become the decisive factor in the coin-flip game between the Bills and Dolphins. The odds on the markets are slightly in favour of the home side, which – with a spread of 2.5 points – can probably be explained by the home advantage.

The Fins in top form! They made both franchise and NFL history last week, as 70 points was unprecedented for the franchise that was founded in 1965. In addition, they managed 726 offensive yards, which was the second most yards ever. Given that they did it all without their actual number two receiver, Jalen Waddle, and that he is now likely to return, it does beg the question of whether Miami might be unfairly viewed as an underdog in this game.

Buffalo Bills – stats & current form

The Bills stumbled a bit into the new season. They lost the primetime game on the first day against the Jets, where Zach Wilson had to take over as playmaker after the early injury of Aaron Rodgers. Nevertheless, Buffalo had to admit defeat in overtime against New York with 16:22. What was noticeable in this game was that quarterback Josh Allen tried to force too many throws and plays against the strong Jets defence. This is a problem he has had from time to time in the past when he can’t get the offense moving inside the structure.

The direction is right

Over the next two weeks, head coach Sean McDermott’s team put 38 and 37 points on the scoreboard, suggesting the offense has found itself by now. Then last week – against a good Washington defence – they were able to move the ball consistently, down for down. So the development is right. If they can do the same against the Fins, the spectators at Highmark Stadium could see a shootout. The bookies expect this and set the highest over/under limit of the matchday for this match – it is 53.5 points.

By far the most dangerous receiver on the offence is, of course, Stefon Diggs, who broke the 100-yard receiving mark for the second time this season against the Commanders. The second and third string pass receivers are plentiful, but they have so far lacked the class to become a decisive factor over several games.

One of the most interesting matchups of the game will be the Buffalo defense against the Dolphins offense. When NFL stats are sorted by yards-per-game or points-per-game allowed, the home side’s defence finds itself ranked second. Is it “for real”?! The real test will come on Sunday at the latest! Can Buffalo pass this test? In the Bills vs. Dolphins match-up, our forecast is leaning more in the direction of the home side being shown the limits.

Key Players:

• QB: Josh Allen
• RB: James Cook
• WR: Stefon Diggs
• TE: Dawson Knox
• K: Tyler Bass

Miami Dolphins – Statistics & current form

This offense is so much fun! The Miami offence impressed in the first two weeks, but what they put on last week with the actual strong Denver defence was in a class of its own again. This means they have already scored a total of 130 points in three games, giving them an incredible average of 43.3 points. Now, after a week off due to injury, Jaylen Waddle could also return to the offence and give it even more speed. Between the Dolphins and Bills, the prediction from NFL insiders is clearly that he can step up.

Burnable!

But against the Broncos his absence was completely compensated for, as the result also shows. Tyreek Hill was once again outstanding, racking up 157 receiving yards and a touchdown. However, the impact of the running game was at least as big, because the team from Florida had a total of 359 rushing yards. Rookie De’Von Achane excelled here, scoring two touchdowns and over 200 yards. Veteran Raheem Mostert also deserves a mention for his four touchdowns. This offence is currently the best the league has to offer.

But the Vic Fangio defence has also looked good again recently. After allowing 34 points in week one against offensively potent Chargers, they held the Patriots to 17 and the Broncos to 20.

With 550.3 yards per game, Miami is lonely at the top of the league in this statistic. By comparison, the second-place LA Chargers are recording 416.7 yards per match. In addition, the Fins have always scored at least 24 points in their first three games, so the question is whether they can do the same at Highmark Stadium. A strong defence awaits – on paper – once again, but that didn’t impress the Dolphins offence at all last week.

Key Players:

• QB: Tua Tagovailoa
• RB: De’Von Achane
• WR: Tyreek Hill
• TE: Tyler Kroft
• K: Jason Sanders

Buffalo Bills – Miami Dolphins Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

This is the 120th time this AFC East clash has taken place and the team from Florida leads the head-to-head record by a narrow margin of 62 to 56 wins (with one tie). Buffalo’s home record against the Fins, however, is more than respectable, losing only one of their last twelve home games in overtime. For the franchise founded in 1965, a win at “Highmark Stadium” would be their first since 2016.

Buffalo Bills – Miami Dolphins Tip

The Fins are currently the hottest team in the league and therefore we cannot completely understand the slight underdog role in the match. Sure, the 70 points last time shouldn’t be a benchmark, but we trust Mike McDaniels to put together an enormously good gameplan again. That’s why we’re betting on the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins to take the win back to Florida and continue their unbeaten run. The betting odds are at 2.30 at the top, which is of course very attractive.

If we were to choose which team we think is more likely to score three touchdowns, then our tip here also goes to the visitors. In our eyes, Miami simply has more offensive power than the home side, especially when Jalen Waddle returns as a second, equal starting station. On top of that, in the Bills vs. Dolphins game, the odds for at least three successful end zone visits by the Floridians look much more attractive.

The bookmakers, as already mentioned, expect an absolute shootout – and we also expect a lot of points. We think the over/under line is very well chosen, but tend towards more at least 54 points being scored in the game. Nothing really stands in the way of offensive fireworks!