Will Real also steal the second game in Barcelona?

In the final series of the Spanish Basketball League, it comes, as in the previous season, once again to the duel of arch-rivals Barcelona and Real Madrid. The first game on Monday evening went somewhat surprisingly to the Madrilenians, who had the upper hand in the Palau Blaugrana in Catalonia with a surprisingly clear 88:75. In the best-of-five series, therefore, a possible preliminary decision beckons on Wednesday evening.

Unlike in the German Basketball Bundesliga, for example, where the home advantage in the current finals series alternates from match to match, in Spain the first team in the main round also has home advantage in Game 2. This is one of the reasons why significantly lower odds on a home win are again being offered between Barcelona and Real Madrid. However, these prices should be treated with caution in many respects.

On the one hand, due to the aforementioned result from game 1, and on the other hand, due to the fact that the capital club already won the semi-final in the Euroleague a few weeks ago. Moreover, at the moment it feels as if the royals are playing for their coach Pablo Laso, who is currently unavailable due to a heart attack and is being replaced by his assistants. In Game 2 between Barcelona and Real Madrid, a prediction on another away win therefore has the more promising value.

Barcelona – Statistics & current form

For long stretches of the season, FC Barcelona lived up to their own expectations. Coach Sarunas Jasikevicius was allowed to put together a squad in the run-up to this season that is probably unparalleled anywhere in Europe. In both the Spanish league ACB and the Euroleague, the FCB finished first in the regular season and thus underpinned their title claims in both competitions.

In the meantime, however, the Catalans are in danger of going home empty-handed. In the Euroleague, Nikola Mirotic and Co. already failed in the semi-finals and in the domestic league, after the 13-point defeat on Monday, there is already a lot of pressure on the star ensemble, which could have bagged the championship against the same opponent last year. In the event of defeat on Wednesday night, they would have to travel to the capital with a 0-2 series deficit.

Barca with clear disadvantages in the zone

Currently, however, it seems that the Jasikevicius team is not up to the high mental demands at this level. With the exception of the fifth game in the Euroleague quarter-final series against FC Bayern, we would have to look back into the scorebooks for quite some time to give the Catalans credit for a top performance in an important match against an almost equal opponent. Without pressure on their backs, the blue and reds are hard to beat; but in corresponding pressure situations, there is a lack of consistency.

Apart from that, the first team of the main round has weaknesses under the baskets. None of the FCB’s big men is really able to defend Walter Tavares, the 2.20-metre giant of Real. The Royals scored more in the zone in Game 1, grabbed eight more rebounds and also got to the free-throw line almost twice as often as the Blaugrana. If these trends continue on Wednesday night, we’re confident that betting on an away win between Barcelona and Real Madrid will pay off once again.

Predicted Barcelona line-up:
PG: Nick Calathes
SG: Cory Higgins
SF: Alex Abrines
PF: Nikola Mirotic
C: Rolands Smits

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

Real Madrid’s season has had many highs, but also at least as many lows. At one point, coach Pablo Laso was even on the verge of being sacked. However, because an upward trend followed and the team found itself more and more as the season progressed, the experienced head coach is still in office at the Spanish giant.

Nevertheless, the 54-year-old will not be on the sidelines in the final series. The reason is a sad one. Pablo Laso suffered a heart attack a few days ago and will therefore be replaced by his assistant coaches until further notice. Jesus Mateo has taken over the reins and has obviously made some important changes. It is also possible, however, that the team is playing for its ailing coach and has once again moved closer together.

Real ploughing through the play-offs

The Madrid side have played two matches under Jesus Mateo so far, and both times they have come out on top. At Baskonia and in Barcelona, the offensive was particularly convincing with 85 and 88 points respectively. In the playoffs, Real now have six wins in six games. The margin of victory has always been at least eight points. On average, the white ballet has been able to put eleven points between itself and its opponents. In view of this inferred dominance, it would almost be reckless not to make a prediction on the Euroleague finalist between Barcelona and Real Madrid in Game 2.

Besides the higher number of rebounds and free throws, the defence was also the X-factor in Game 1. With Yabusele, Deck, Causeur, Hanga and Tavares, the starting five has exclusively good defenders. Finally, the veterans Llull, Rodriguez, Taylor and Poirier come off the bench and can set the tone especially in the offensive. If the visitors once again allow themselves a lower number of ball losses and produce a similarly decent rate from beyond the three-point line, we wouldn’t be surprised if the odds on Tavares and Co. pay off in the second final match between Barcelona and Real Madrid.

Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
PG: Fabien Causeur
SG: Gabriel Deck
SF: Adam Hanga
PF: Guerschon Yabusele
C: Walter Tavares

Barcelona – Real Madrid Direct comparison / H2H-balance

For the ninth time (!), the arch-rivals face each other on Wednesday night this season. Starting with the Supercopa final in mid-September, through two main round matches each in the league and the Euroleague, to the Copa del Rey final and the aforementioned Euroleague semi-final. The teams played eight duels at the highest level and therefore know each other almost inside out.

With five wins and three defeats, FC Barcelona leads the direct comparison this season. But: The most recent two direct duels went to the Madrid team, who benefited from a strong third quarter in both victories. Above all, the tall build-up player Fabien Causeur, who also has a past with Brose Bamberg in the BBL, is a walking match-up problem for the FCB. Calathes, his counterpart on the Blaugrana side, is too small and too slow to defend him. Thus, the Frenchman will often look for the drive to the basket on Wednesday as well.

Barcelona – Real Madrid Tip

High-class basketball is not only on show in the NBA at the moment, but also in Europe. In many countries, the finals series are currently on the agenda. This is also the case in what is probably the best league on the continent, the ACB league in Spain. As expected, the two most prestigious clubs, Barcelona and Real Madrid, have made it to the final.

After the Madrid team was able to “steal” the first game from the Blaugrana, they now have an excellent starting position in the fight for the championship. Should the betting odds on Walter Tavares, Sergio Llull and Co. also go through in Game 2 between Barcelona and Real Madrid, they would travel back home with a 2-0 lead and from then on would have two match points in front of their chest.

We definitely wouldn’t rule out such a scenario, as the capital club left the much better impression on us in recent weeks. All six 2022 play-off matches were won by at least eight points; moreover, Real also won the most recent two direct duels against the FCB. The Catalans, on the other hand, have problems getting their performance on the floor in big games. Matchup problems against Causeur or Tavares further complicate the task.

We have therefore decided to bet on the away win between Barcelona and Real Madrid.