The SG needs a real handball miracle
Eight handball teams are currently fighting for the four coveted tickets for the Final Four of the Champions League, which will take place on 18/19 June in the Lanxess Arena in Cologne. For the first time since 2014, the SG Flensburg-Handewitt wants to enter the ultimate final round of European handball. However, this will require a medium-sized miracle on Thursday evening.
Because the reigning runners-up lost the first leg in front of their home crowd against FC Barcelona with 29:33 after a disastrous opening phase, the Northern Germans now travel to Catalonia in a very bad starting position. The SG must win by at least four goals at the defending champions. Even an away win in the Palau Blaugrana, however, is already considered highly unlikely. Between Barcelona and Flensburg, the odds for the visitors to win are almost 7.00 at the top.
According to the bookmakers, the team of coach Maik Machulla has no realistic chance. However, this is exactly the chance of the underdogs, who actually played a good game in the first leg in their own hall, but were already trailing 2:9 after ten minutes.
If Johannes Golla and his colleagues manage to start the game better this time, at least a positive result beckons, which would be worth its weight in gold in terms of self-confidence for the upcoming derby against THW Kiel at the weekend. Nevertheless, between Barcelona and Flensburg, a prediction on a home win after regular time is almost without alternative.
Barcelona – statistics & current form
Last season, the FC Barcelona handball team won the European crown for the tenth time overall. For the first time since 2015, the Catalans kept the upper hand in the Final Four of the EHF Champions League and delivered real demonstrations of power on their way to winning the title. In the semi-final, the French club Nantes was defeated 31:26, and in the final, they finally won 36:23 against the Danish representatives Aalborg, who had previously eliminated the co-favourites Paris St. Germain.
The star ensemble of coach Antonio Carlos Ortega, who was previously under contract with Hannover-Burgdorf in the HBL, is also considered the hottest candidate for the Champions League triumph in the current season. However, the Blue-Red team has not come through the competition without losing points so far. In the group phase, for example, “only” nine of 14 matches were won. Nevertheless, this was enough for them to advance directly to the quarter-finals in second place.
Will Barcelona also start the second leg perfectly?
There, the Ortega team finally underlined the quality available. After ten minutes, they were 9:2 ahead in Flensburg and were ultimately able to save this lead over the finish line. Nevertheless, as the game progressed, it became clear that the FCB was nowhere near as dominant as last year. There might be a chance that the SG, with the help of a good start, might be able to upset the overwhelming favourites.
The dress rehearsal did not go according to plan for the Spanish double winners. They only managed a 32-32 draw with Antequera at the weekend. At half-time, the Blaugrana even trailed by one goal. Nevertheless, it has to be said that the Catalans are a power in front of their home crowd and with their own fans behind them, they want to clinch a place in the Final Four. But there is always the potential for surprises, especially with such supposedly self-starters, which is why we are aiming for a better start for the North Germans between Barcelona and Flensburg.
Predicted line-up of Barcelona:
Perez de Vargas, Maciel – Arino, Fernandez, Janc, Gomez, N’Guessan, Petrus, Langaro, Zein, Cindric, Makuc, Mem, Richardson, Benali, Fabregas, Frade – Coach: Ortega
Last matches played by Barcelona:
Liga Asobal
14/05/2022 – Antequera 32 – 32 Barcelona
Champions League Final Stage
11/05/2022 – SG Flensburg-Handewitt 29 – 33 Barcelona
Liga Asobal
07/05/2022 – Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil 27 – 34 Barcelona
30/04/2022 – Barcelona 35 – 19 Frigorificos Morrazo
23/04/2022 – Helvetia Anaitasuna 34 – 35 Barcelona
Flensburg – Statistics & current form
The SG Flensburg-Handewitt had two big goals in mind before the first leg the previous week. On the one hand, the Final Four in the Champions League and, on the other hand, the renewed qualification for the strongest handball competition in Europe next season.
The first goal, however, has become a distant memory. It is hard to imagine that a prediction on the reigning runner-up’s progress in the second leg between Barcelona and Flensburg will pay off.
Flensburg need an absolute cream day
How unlikely such a scenario is is shown, among other things, by the fact that the SG won only four of their 14 matches in the group phase and, with a total of ten plus points, only just made it into the knockout round.
There, however, they surprisingly prevailed against the Polish club Pick Szeged and convinced with a strong start in both the first and second leg. Away from home, the runners-up took an early 5:2 lead, at home it was 13:7 shortly before half-time. In our eyes, these figures are a good argument to check the odds on a decent first half from the outsiders in the second leg between Barcelona and Flensburg.
Bets on the SG scoring five goals first or even still being in the lead after 30 minutes come into question. In both cases, impressively high odds of 2.50 and 4.75 respectively are offered. Value is definitely on offer, especially as it remains to be seen whether the home side will be as motivated or as mentally well-matched as they were in the Flens Arena.
Predicted line-up of Flensburg:
Buric, Möller – Adam, Backhaus, Einarsson, Golla, Gottfridsson, Hald Jensen, Jakobsen, Johannessen, Mensah Larsen, Steinhauser, Svan, Wanne – coach: Machulla
Last games played by Flensburg:
Champions League Final Stage
11/05/2022 – SG Flensburg-Handewitt 29 – 33 Barcelona
Bundesliga
08/05/2022 – TSV Hannover-Burgdorf 26 – 31 SG Flensburg-Handewitt
05/05/2022 – SG Flensburg-Handewitt 26 – 21 FA Göppingen
30/04/2022 – SG Flensburg-Handewitt 33 – 23 HSV Hamburg
10/04/2022 – SG Flensburg-Handewitt 30 – 19 TuS-N-Lübbecke
Barcelona – Flensburg Direct comparison / H2H balance
These clubs have played each other many times in recent years. Actually, always with the better outcome for the Catalans, who have had the upper hand against the German top club nine times in a row since 2014. In the current season alone, there have already been three encounters, all of which went to the FCB. The first leg ended 33:29 for the Spanish leaders; in the group stage, the star ensemble won 29:22 as well as 25:21.
Barcelona – Flensburg tip
Two German teams will fight for a place in the Final Four on Thursday evening. While THW Kiel have a good chance against Paris St. Germain after the 30:30 in the first leg to make it to Cologne in front of their home crowd, the SG Flensburg-Handewitt need a medium-sized handball miracle. The SG already lost the first leg against FC Barcelona with 29:33.
Now, the SG will travel to the Palau Blaugrana, which has always been a witch’s cauldron during important international matches. The Machulla team no longer feels any pressure. The supposedly hopeless starting position could turn into an advantage, especially if they start the game better than in the first leg, where the SG was already trailing 2:9.
While we don’t dare to bet on the underdog achieving a sensation in the duel Barcelona vs. Flensburg, we can well imagine that the start of the game will be different than a week ago. Especially in the first minutes, a lot is possible in handball, so we go with the SG here.
In the quarter-final second leg Barcelona vs. Flensburg, the betting odds on “first five goals” by the SG promise an exciting value.
