The Italian tennis player has won the Beijing tournament again (repeating his 2023 victory) and now faces the Shanghai Masters 1000, where Alcaraz will no longer be competing.

Jannik Sinner has just won the Beijing title, which he already won in 2023 in the final against Medvedev and lost in 2024 in his last match against Alcaraz, and is already thinking about the Shanghai Masters 1000, where he will make his debut against Altmaier. The challenge with the Spaniard for the world tennis throne is therefore reopened. So let’s find out the odds for Sinner to be number 1 on December 31, 2025.
The Italian had no trouble beating the young Tien in two sets, a result that allowed him to earn a hundred more points than last season, when he lost the final in Beijing. Now Sinner will focus on the Shanghai tournament where, in addition to defending the trophy he won in 2024, he will also have to regain the 1,000 points that will be deducted before his debut: but Jannik’s advantage is that Alcaraz has withdrawn from the Masters 1000 due to poor physical condition, so by winning the tournament, Sinner would get very close to the Spaniard, who will only lose 200 points in the rankings.

POINT CALCULATION—   At the end of the Chinese campaign, Alcaraz would find himself with 11,340 points, while Sinner, by winning in Shanghai and then in Vienna, where Carlos is not currently registered, would overtake him with 11,450 points. The problem for the South Tyrolean will come later, between the Paris Bercy tournament and the Finals in Turin, when he will have to give up something like 1,500 points against his rival’s 200. In short, the battle will be close again, and the possibility of Sinner ending 2026 as world number one is offered at 5.00 by Goldbet, Better Lottomatica, and Planetwin365. All that remains is to wait, watch the events unfold, and then do the math.