Roma’s top priority is now the Europa League!

Until the last matchday, FC Porto and Roma had to fear for their place in the UEFA Europa League playoffs. However, with wins against Maccabi Tel Aviv and Eintracht Frankfurt on the last matchday, both teams ultimately made it into the top 24. Now it comes to the direct duel, which on paper is certainly the most notable in the intermediate round of this competition. Accordingly, it is also a challenge to predict the outcome of the game between Porto and AS Roma.
The Italian capital club can throw their better form into the ring. After initial difficulties, the Yellow-Reds have now stabilized under Claudio Ranieri and have recently achieved many good results. However, the Romans are still waiting for their first away win in this Europa League season. On Thursday evening, however, a prediction of success for the away team does not necessarily have to come true in the first leg of the playoff at the Estadio do Dragao for Porto to significantly improve their chances for the second leg. Mats Hummels and Co. would certainly be satisfied with a draw.

In general, there are many indications that point to a rather low-scoring match in the Portuguese port city. This is also confirmed by the Porto vs. AS Roma odds on the goal market, which also tend to focus more on two good defenses and away from a lively offensive spectacle. Regardless of which bet you ultimately decide on for this game, you can bet tax-free at Merkur Bets.

Porto – Statistics & current form

A little over two weeks ago, Martin Anselmí, an Argentine, took over as the new coach of FC Porto. The 39-year-old, who is making his debut in Europe as a coach and was signed from Cruz Azul in Mexico, won his debut 1-0 in Belgrade against Maccabi Tel Aviv at the end of January, but then went two consecutive games without a win. He only managed draws against Rio Ave (2-2) and at home against Sporting Lisbon last weekend (1-1).

Porto’s European record is devastating

But the first three matches with the new strong man on the sidelines have already shown that a lot of emphasis is placed on defensive work. In all three matches, the blue-and-whites conceded a total of less than four goals. However, the defense also allowed very little going forward.

If you also consider that in three of four home games in the Europa League group stage, the Under 2.5 would have been accepted and that at the league level, no other team conceded fewer goals than the “Dragoes”, the odds on a maximum of two goals also appear to be profitable in the important home game against AS Roma. Not least because the team, which is currently only in third place in the league, has not lost any of its eleven home games (9-2-0) and has only conceded a measly four goals in front of its own fans.

After just one win in their last eight competitive games and given that they have only won five of their last 25 (!) knockout matches in European competition (5-4-16), I am too hesitant to make a prediction about the home team between Porto and AS Roma.

Predicted Porto lineup:

AS Roma – statistics & current form

Claudio Ranieri has seen and won it all as a coach. While other people are enjoying their retirement at 73, Ranieri is once again pursuing a matter close to his heart. For the third time, the former mastermind of Leicester City has taken over his boyhood and home club as coach. Because the team is lagging behind in the league as ninth and has fallen behind in the race for the European Cup places and also had to drop out of the Coppa Italia, the UEFA Europa League has top priority in the coming weeks.

The Ranieri-Roma is defined by compact defense work

Incidentally, Ranieri himself should not be seen as an expert on international competition, because despite his outstanding career, the native Roman has lost nine of his only eleven European knockout matches as a coach. Three times he stood on the sidelines for Roma in an international knockout game, and three times his team left the field as losers. However, “I Lupi” are considered to have a better chance of advancing to the last 16 of the Europa League in the playoff against FC Porto.

This is primarily due to their respectable form, which is reflected in seven wins from the last twelve competitive games and only two defeats in the same period. In addition, the Giallorossi’s defense has stepped up a gear or two compared to the desolate start to the season under De Rossi or Juric.

The capital club has conceded more than one goal in just five of the 18 competitive games under Ranieri. In seven of the last ten matches involving Roma, the Under 2.5 would therefore have been successful. In the league phase of the Europa League alone, there were a maximum of two goals in six out of eight cases. The six goals conceded in the preliminary round were the third-best figure of all 36 EL clubs. These statistics again provide good arguments for considering the betting odds for a maximum of one goal for the home side before the Porto v AS Roma game. NEO.bet offers a 1.62 for this.

Predicted AS Roma lineup:

Porto – AS Roma head to head / H2H record

There have been six meetings between these clubs so far. With three wins, two draws and only one defeat, FC Porto lead the direct comparison. However, the last direct duel dates back to 2019, so the relevance of the head-to-head is limited. The cards will be reshuffled on the next two Thursdays.

Porto – AS Roma Tip

One of the remaining high-caliber teams will definitely be caught in the Europa League playoffs. In the most prominent match for a place in the last 16, FC Porto and AS Roma will face each other directly. Before the first leg, I would generally rather go with the Giallorossi, as they are in better form and, in view of the weak season in the league and their elimination in the cup, will now put a lot of energy into the European Cup. We have also seen in the recent past that the Romans do really well in knockout mode with their cool, clever style of play.

For the first of the second matches between Porto and AS Roma, my initial tip is still for under 2.5 goals. The Italians had the third-best defense in the league phase and have recently performed really well defensively across competitions. There is more pressure on the hosts, while the guests from the eternal city can react patiently. A maximum of two goals in the game is therefore just as obvious as a bet on the X2 & Under 3.5 at 2.18.