Can the brave Basques keep up in Catalonia?

FC Barcelona just missed out on first place in the league phase of the Champions League during the week, but as the second-best team, they comfortably advanced to the round of 16, while teams like Bayern, Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City all have to go through the playoffs. Now, however, the Catalans need to turn things around in La Liga as well. However, the tip for the home win of the Blaugrana against Alaves is by no means a sure thing.
Not only have the Catalans only won two of their last nine La Liga games (three draws, four defeats), but the visitors from the Basque Country are also clearly on an upward trend. Since Eduardo Coudet took over as coach at the beginning of December, they have only lost one of eight competitive games (one win, six draws), which should be taken into account in the forecast at Barcelona against Alaves.

Although the risks associated with betting on the Babazorros winning a point at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys are generally unacceptable, which is why we cannot recommend any outsider bets. However, we do not consider a comfortable victory for the Blaugrana to be too realistic either. With that in mind, it makes a lot of sense to look at the odds for the handicap markets in Barcelona against Alaves.

Barcelona – Statistics & current form

Hansi Flick enjoys the highest popularity ratings in Catalonia, mainly because of the fresh football he celebrates with his young wild ones.

The Catalans have already won their first title under Hansi Flick: the Supercopa de Espana, in which Real Madrid were beaten 5-2 in the final. In addition, the Blaugrana also finished second in the league phase of the Champions League, thus qualifying directly for the knockout stage, and are still in the running in the Copa del Rey after beating Betis Sevilla 5-1.

Has Barça overcome their La Liga form slump?

The recent slump in La Liga is all the more incomprehensible after a period of dominant league leadership. After only two of the last nine league games have been won (three draws, four defeats), Barça are now only third behind the two Madrid teams.

Barcelona have already lost three La Liga home games

At least offensively, however, the Blaugrana have been extremely clinical. Lewandowski, Raphinha and Co have already scored an impressive 59 goals. Just in their last home game, they beat Valencia CF 7-1.

And yet: the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys is not nearly the impregnable fortress that Camp Nou has mostly been in recent years. Flick’s team has already lost three of their first nine home games in La Liga this season (six wins), which puts them only sixth in the home table.

Alaves – Statistics & current form

Club Deportivo Alaves have so far been unable to build on their strong tenth place finish in the 2023/24 season. The Basques have recently shown an upward trend. With 21 points from 21 league games, the Babazorros are still only in 17th place in the table and are therefore stuck in the relegation battle.

At the beginning of December, the club bosses therefore also made adjustments on the coaching bench. Since the Argentine Eduardo Coudet has been in charge of the club, many things have changed for the better, although the final turnaround is still a long time coming.

Alaves with upward trend under Coudet

The Babazorros have only lost one of their last eight competitive games (one win, six draws), although they have not kept a clean sheet in any of these eight games. In most cases, however, they have only conceded a maximum of one goal – including in four of their last five La Liga games.

Because the offensive knot has not yet been burst either, this one goal was often enough for the Basques not to get beyond a draw. At least: in the last away game so far, there was a remarkable 3-1 win at Betis Sevilla.

Alaves with convincing away offense

It should be noted, however, that the Basques have usually played very courageously away from home. Deportivo Alaves scored an impressive 15 goals in 11 La Liga away games. This means that the relegation-threatened club has the fourth-best away attack in the Spanish top flight. That could also be a factor in their bid to force a close result against the Catalans.

Barcelona – Alaves head to head record

Head to head: 34 – 7 – 7

The two teams have met 48 times, including in the 2017 Copa del Rey final. FC Barcelona have a clear lead in the all-time head-to-head meetings with 34 wins. The Catalans have not lost any of their last 15 duels with Deportivo Alaves (13 wins, two draws) and also celebrated a 3-0 victory in the first leg at the Basques.

Barcelona – Alaves Tip

The betting odds of the top bookmakers are clearly and unequivocally beating the Blaugrana against Alaves at Barcelona, which is a rather daring assessment. Not only has Hansi Flick’s team won just two of their last nine La Liga games (three draws, four defeats), but they have also suffered three home defeats in the league at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, which is still being used during the renovation of Camp Nou, which means that Barça are only in sixth place in the home table.

Although the guests from the Basque Country are still in acute danger of relegation, the Babazorros have only lost one of eight competitive games under their new coach Eduardo Coudet (one win, six draws), which should not be ignored in the forecast at Barcelona against Alaves.

We therefore consider the approach of setting a handicap of +3 for the guests to be very interesting, which, in addition to any point won by the Basques, also covers any home win for the Catalans with a maximum of two goals difference.