Will Eintracht find their way back into the game in the Rhine-Main derby?

The upcoming Rhine-Main derby between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 has become even more explosive during the week. According to media reports, the SGE has expressed a great interest in signing U21 national player and FSV captain Jonathan Burkardt. Admittedly, these rumors will have no influence on the Frankfurt vs. Mainz tip, because Burkardt himself injured his back thigh in the previous week and will not be available to the Rhine Hessians at the weekend or in the first matches of the new year.

Nevertheless, there are certainly optimists in the environment of the zero-fives who dare to predict an away win for Hendriksen’s team between Frankfurt and Mainz. The guests’ self-confidence has risen dramatically after their 2-1 triumph against Bayern, and their own form is also impressive compared to Eintracht’s condition. While the players from the Main metropolis have only won one of the last five competitive games, the FSV has won four of its last five Bundesliga games.

The fact that lower odds are still being offered on the third-placed team before the neighborhood duel between Frankfurt and Mainz is due, among other things, to the fact that Toppmöller’s team is very difficult to beat at home and has usually achieved good results against the club from the carnival stronghold in recent years. Those who therefore want to bet on the home win in the three-way market can do so at top odds of 1.85.

Frankfurt vs. Mainz Prediction AI

Based on a lot of data and a detailed simulation, the artificial intelligence calculates xG values for both clubs. In the Rhine-Main derby, for example, BETSiE predicts 2.06 goals for the SGE and 1.11 goals for the FSV. With a total of 3.17 xG, even in the 1.66 on Over 2.5 goals, value can still be found. Between Frankfurt and Mainz, the AI forecast ultimately aims for a lively and spectacular match with numerous offensive highlights.

Frankfurt – Statistics & current form

Eintracht Frankfurt had to relinquish their status as the first and fiercest Bayern pursuer in the previous week. Because Bayer Leverkusen won in Augsburg and the Hessians lost their away game at their direct competitor in Leipzig with 1:2, the team of trainer Dino Toppmöller fell back to the third place and continued at the same time the downswing in December 2024. They only managed to win one of the last five competitive games. In addition to the two winless Bundesliga games, the SGE lost for the first time in the Europa League and were knocked out in the round of 16 of the DFB Cup.

Frankfurt are still unbeaten at home in all competitions in 2024/25

For the so far consistently performing eagle bearers, it is therefore important on Saturday afternoon to return to the road to success and to spend the winter in the top three. The odds are good in that before the Rhine-Main derby Frankfurt against Mainz, the advertised odds point to a favorite role for the 2022 Europa League champion.

The advantages for the third-placed team are primarily based on their home strength. In the current season, they have managed to score 14 out of a possible 18 points in six Bundesliga home games (4-2-0). Over the entire calendar year, the Hessians lost only a single match at the Deutsche Bank Park. With Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen, SGE has already defeated two teams this year that are in a similar league to FSV Mainz 05. Incidentally, Eintracht has also won the last three home games against the Rhine-Hessian rivals – always without conceding a goal!

In principle, however, no forecast should be made on Saturday between Frankfurt and Mainz that the home side will once again keep their clean sheet. They have conceded ten goals in their last four competitive games alone. Even in front of their own fans, the ball hit the back of the net at least twice in three of the last four encounters. However, Marmoush and Co. have scored a whopping 18 goals in six home games, which is why the 1.66 at Intertops for Over 2.5 can definitely be recommended.

Mainz – Statistics & current form

In February, Bo Hendriksen celebrates his first year of service as coach of Mainz 05. So far, the Dane, who previously coached FC Zurich in Switzerland, among others, has done a great job. Compared to previous FSV coaching “legends” such as Jürgen Klopp or Thomas Tuchel, the 49-year-old, who is very popular with fans for his emotional and sometimes crazy manner, even has a higher points average. Euphoria is currently being exuded in the carnival stronghold. Even a European Cup place at the end of the season seems within the realm of possibility, provided that the zero-fiveers can continue their previous performances.

Does Mainz also work without Burkardt?

How uncomfortable the Hendriksen team is to play against at the moment was something that FC Bayern had to experience at first hand last week. The record champions lost 2-1 at the new seventh-placed team, thus suffering their first league defeat of the season. The Rhine Hessians had already scored points against the Champions League participants from Dortmund (3-1) and Stuttgart (3-3) in the first half of the season. It is not for nothing that the FSV is already being referred to in the media as a favorite’s fear.

It is also a fact that the red and whites do not have to hide from any opponent in their current form. They have only lost one of their last seven Bundesliga games. In their last five Bundesliga games, Mainz have always scored at least two goals. Apart from that, they have only conceded a single defeat away from home since March 2024 – a 4-3 defeat at Wolfsburg two weeks ago.

It will be interesting to see how the surprise seventh-placed team deals with the fact that Jonny Burkardt, by far their most important offensive player, is out of action. On the other hand, the positive streak of recent weeks has always been built on scoring the opening goal to lead 1-0.

The “zero fives” have scored the first goal of the game five times in a row. Since Eintracht is now the only team in the Bundesliga that has never been behind at half-time in the first 14 match days, it cannot necessarily be assumed that the “zero fives” will be able to continue this streak. The betting odds for the home team to win a point with at least one goal in each half are all the more interesting between Frankfurt and Mainz.

Frankfurt – Mainz Direct comparison / H2H record

In the Bundesliga, Eintracht Frankfurt has not lost any of the last eight Rhine-Main derbies. There have been four wins and four draws during this period. The last defeat was at home in June 2020. However, the SGE has won all three recent home games against FSV in the German top flight and has not conceded a single goal. In general, the home record against the Rhine Hessians is quite successful with nine wins, four draws and three defeats.

Frankfurt – Mainz Tip

After just one win in their last five competitive games, and even four consecutive games without a win, Eintracht Frankfurt are struggling for form. In the Rhine-Main derby on Saturday afternoon, Toppmöller’s team are determined to get their mojo back. Although Mainz are an extremely strong opponent, having beaten Bayern 2-1 in the previous week and only lost one of their last seven Bundesliga matches, I still think SGE will come out on top.

In particular, their home form is an argument to be cited. Added to that is a clearly positive head-to-head against neighboring rivals. Because, in addition, Jonny Burkardt, the most important attacker for the zero-five team, is out, I have ultimately decided to push for a home win between Frankfurt and Mainz. The maximum odds at Betano are 1.85 and are played with six units.