Who will win the heavyweight duel?
It’s Super Bowl time – at least in terms of the strength of the matchup. That’s because our Lions vs. Bills tip pits two of the strongest teams in their conference against each other. They are also the two teams that score the most points per game in the league.
So we can look forward to an offensive spectacle, just like the last Bills game against Los Angeles. However, we don’t expect quite as many points, because on the one hand the Bills defense will make some adjustments and on the other hand the Lions defense is also better than the Rams defense.
Josh Allen is likely to be the best player on the field again on Sunday. The Bills quarterback scored three rushing and three passing touchdowns against LA in a game, which no player in NFL history has ever done before.
He could also decide this duel in favor of the Bills and so our forecast for Lions vs. Bills is a thrilling fight with an open outcome, in which we would again ascribe a decisive role to Josh Allen – including his own touchdowns.
Kickoff of this cracker is on Sunday at 10:25 p.m. in Detroit. The game can also be followed live as a single game on DAZN.
Detroit Lions – Statistics & current form
The Lions are quietly turning into the Kansas City Chiefs 2.0. They, too, have been winning their games in recent weeks in rather unusual and extremely close fashion. Against the Packers on the last game day, it was already their second straight win by just three points.
Overall, however, they have won 11 straight games, giving them the longest winning streak in the league. Nevertheless, we think that they will not go through the rest of the season undefeated and could already stumble against the Bills.
Turnover as the key to victory
What doesn’t favor Detroit in this matchup is the turnover statistics. Jared Goff has thrown ten interceptions this season, while Josh Allen has thrown only five. And the Bills are real ball hunters, having already managed to intercept a total of 13 passes.
In general, the Lions have a turnover ratio of +8, which is worse than the Bills’ +17. This could be important in the end. Besides, we don’t expect Buffalo to be as vulnerable defensively again as they were against the Rams. Such games rarely happen twice in a row.
Tips on over-points as an option
Nevertheless, there could of course be a small shootout on Sunday. The Lions will be able to move down the field with their run game and the Bills will be able to do so based on the skills of their quarterback, who is in MVP form.
This means that the odds for the Lions against the Bills are definitely in play for over-points. At 54.5, these are still within the range that can be typed, since the 50-point mark was also broken in four of the last six Bills games.
Key Players:
- QB: Jared Goff
- RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
- WR: Amon-Ra St.Brown
- TE: Sam Laporta
- K: Jake Bates
Buffalo Bills – Statistics & current form
What a spectacle against the Los Angeles Rams. But they would have preferred to win easily than to concede 44 points and lose the game despite scoring 42 points themselves. Even Josh Allen’s record performance was of little help.
He was the first quarterback ever to score three rushing and three passing touchdowns in a game. It will therefore again depend on him against Detroit. Another rushing touchdown from him is very possible given his current power.
This makes the betting odds for a TD by Allen against Detroit vs. Buffalo one of our top betting tips – especially since the current odds of 2.20 also offer strong value.
Top seed of the AFC still in reach
The loss against LA was of course a small setback in the fight for the number 1 seed in the conference, but we wouldn’t write off Buffalo just yet. The game against Detroit is by far the toughest of their remaining schedule.
After that, the Patriots and the Jets will play twice. So if they win on Sunday, a 14-3 record is very likely. And then the Chiefs would have to continue to win by such a narrow margin and not stumble in their more difficult remaining program.
Tips on Bills playable
With this motivation and certainly a lot of anger after the defeat against the Rams, we now believe Allen and Co. can put in a strong performance in Detroit. Since the Lions have not been playing that well lately either, an away win here would not surprise us.
That makes a bet on the Bills at higher odds for Detroit vs. Buffalo certainly worth considering. The Bills have already shown against the Chiefs that the big teams suit them in top games.
Key Players:
- QB: Josh Allen
- RB: James Cook
- WR: Amari Cooper
- TE: Dalton Kincaid
- K: Tyler Bass
Detroit Lions – Buffalo Bills head-to-head record / H2H record
The Bills have won the last four meetings between the two. The last Lions victory in this matchup dates back 18 years, although it must be said that most of the duels naturally fell during the Lions’ difficult years.
The duel between Allen and Goff is also going 2-0 to the Bills captain, who was able to beat Goff in both the Lions and the Rams jerseys. We also see Josh Allen as the clearly better quarterback in this matchup.
So we expect him to have another good game on Sunday, which puts the focus on the odds for a rushing touchdown by Allen in the Lions vs. Bills game. On the Lions side, we would most likely bet on David Montgomery to score a touchdown.
Detroit Lions – Buffalo Bills Tip
We are more likely to bet on the Bills to win due to the higher odds. However, this is not our preferred option, as bets against the Lions are always a bit risky. They are just too good for that.
But we can still bet on a Bills player. For us, a rushing touchdown from Josh Allen is our number one bet for Lions against Bills. He already has nine rushing touchdowns this season and against the Rams last Sunday, he even scored three.
Alternatively, over-points are our choice in this matchup. Even though the Bills defense should stabilize significantly, the set 54.5 total points are easily achievable. After all, the Lions score 32.1 points on average and the Bills also score a strong 30.5.
