Will the Polish champions win at home?

There are always debutants in the Champions League qualifiers who dream of competing with the best clubs in Europe in the group stage. These clubs are probably most likely to dream of an away game at the Santiago Bernabeu, a clash against Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City or, in general, home games against prominent world clubs.

However, there are high hurdles to overcome on the way into the concert of the greats. For example, the Polish champions from Bialystok, who are taking part for the first time, must eliminate the Norwegian title holders in the third qualifying round. It can be predicted in advance between Jagiellonia and Bodö/Glimt that this will not be an easy task

In comparison to the Poles, the visitors from northern Europe are far more experienced in international competition. Last season, the yellow horde reached the intermediate round of the Conference League. Knutsen’s team are extremely strong, especially in their own stadium and on an artificial pitch that many opponents are not used to. If the double chance X2 bet proves correct in the first leg between Jagiellonia and Bodö/Glimt, this would not only put the Scandinavians in a good starting position, but would also be half the battle for a play-off spot in the eyes of many bookmakers without tax

However, the proverbial bill must not be made without the landlord, who in this case is the host. “Jaga” have made a good start to the season, are brimming with confidence after strong results and see this home game as an absolute highlight in their own club’s history.

Perhaps that’s why the odds on the home team between Jagiellonia and Bodö/Glimt offer more value. All bookmakers are offering odds of over 3.00 on the home side to win.

Jagiellonia – Statistics & current form

Jagiellonia Bialystok have been a fixture in the Polish top flight for 18 years now. While the Podlachians initially struggled at the bottom of the table due to point deductions and accusations of bribery, their fortunes improved relatively quickly. Until last season, two second places in 2016/17 and 2017/18 and a Super Cup triumph in 2010 were the Yellow-Red’s greatest successes.

In 2023/24, they finally won the first ever championship in the club’s history. Thanks to a 3-0 home win, the men from the north-east of Poland were crowned national champions for the first time and can therefore now also prove themselves in Champions League qualifying for the first time. There were no initial difficulties, as the Lithuanian underdogs FK Panevezys were confidently put in their place in the second qualifying round with a 7:1 win in both legs.

However, the team from Bialystok have never made it past the third qualifying round of a European competition. It is quite possible that this fact also influences the Jagiellonia v Bodö/Glimt odds on the three-way market. At least in terms of international experience, “Jaga” should have a clear disadvantage over their opponents. However, whether this point justifies the relatively pronounced underdog role of the Yellow and Reds on Wednesday evening can be doubted with a clear conscience.

Jagiellonia rely on momentum and self-confidence

In addition to the two good performances against Panevezys, coach Adrian Siemieniec’s team has also made a dream start at national level. They have won all three matches so far. As the only team with nine points and a goal difference of 7:2, the Yellow and Reds are already leading the Polish league table again and have set their sights on defending their championship title.

It is particularly noteworthy that the home strength from the previous season has been carried over into the new season. In 2023/24, the Podlachians won twelve of 17 home games and scored an impressive 46 goals in the process – the highest tally in Poland. In the current season, there have been two wins at their own Miejski Stadion, including a clean sheet.

We therefore believe that the home side, who were able to retain the core of their squad in the summer under their 32-year-old head coach and have strengthened their squad in certain areas, can at least secure a draw in the first leg. We don’t even think a home win is out of the question. If you want to make a prediction on the double chance 1X between Jagiellonia and Bodö/Glimt, you can get attractive odds at Crazybuzzer:

Predicted line-up of Jagiellonia:
Abramowicz; Sacek, Dieguez, Skrzypczak, Moutinho; Marczuk, Romanczuk, Nene, Hansen; Imaz, Pululu

Bodö/Glimt – Statistics & current form

Last season, Fotballklubben Bodø/Glimt made a name for themselves in the Conference League. The Norwegians struggled through a total of three qualifying rounds and finally reached the group stage of the third most important club competition in Europe. In a challenging four-team pool with Lugano, Besiktas and Club Brugge, they finished in a strong second place to qualify for the intermediate round. However, their next opponents Ajax Amsterdam turned out to be too big.

Nevertheless, the yellow-and-blacks made it through the winter at international level for the third time in a row. The team’s run to the Conference League quarter-finals in 2021/22 will certainly remain unforgotten, as they were only knocked out in the last eight against eventual champions AS Roma – after a 2:1 first-leg win at home. However, the Norwegians would probably swap all these remarkable triumphs for a first-time appearance in the Champions League group stage

Bodö/Glimt can live well with a draw

This season, the odds are anything but bad, as the Jagiellonia vs Bodö/Glimt odds show the Scandinavians as the favorites to advance. Incidentally, they would then face Red Star Belgrade in the play-offs. First, however, the task against the Polish champions must be completed, which could turn out to be complicated insofar as the Yellow and Blacks do not always get all their horsepower on the road away from home.

Even at national level, coach Kjetil Knutsen’s side have won just two of their last five away games. One point from their last two games away from home doesn’t read particularly scary either. Moreover, 18 of their 27 defeats on the European stage have come at home.

On Wednesday evening, the three-time Norwegian champions will therefore primarily be concerned with not leaving the pitch as losers. As the visitors would settle for a draw, we are deliberately not betting on an away win. Strictly speaking, we even believe that the yellow horde will have to stretch themselves mightily to avoid losing the first leg in the cauldron in Poland. Nevertheless, the prospects of making the play-offs are still there, as Knutsen’s team will enjoy exponential home advantage on artificial turf in the second leg next week.

Predicted line-up of Bodö/Glimt:
Haikin; Sjovold, Moe, Gundersen, Bjorkan; Saltnes, Berg, Evjen; Hauge, Kapskarmo, Mikkelsen

Jagiellonia – Bodö/Glimt Direct comparison / H2H balance

Surprisingly, the first leg is the first meeting between these clubs in the European Cup. For Jagiellonia, it is the first meeting with a club from Norway. Bodö/Glimt, meanwhile, have played against Polish representatives four times in the last four years without a single win. The yellow-and-blacks were eliminated on the European stage after a first and second leg against both Legia Warsaw (CL qualifiers 2021/22) and Lech Poznan (CoL qualifiers 2022/23).

Jagiellonia – Bodö/Glimt tip

For the first time in the history of the Champions League, 36 teams will take part in the eight-match group stage for each team this season. The addition of four more clubs naturally increases the chances for debutants. Two potential candidates to qualify for the top flight for the first time will face off in Poland’s Podlaskie Voivodeship.

On paper, Norwegian representatives Bodö/Glimt are considered to have the better chance of making the play-offs against Polish champions Jagiellonia Bialystok. This assumption is primarily based on the fact that the Yellow and Blacks have more international experience and have already enjoyed some good success in the Europa League or Conference League in recent years

However, it must also be taken into account that “Jaga” are a very strong home team, having started the new season with five wins in five games across all competitions, while the visitors from Scandinavia have also had problems away from home time and time again. In addition, the yellow horde are still waiting for their first win after four attempts against Polish opponents (0-1-3).

With this in mind, we’re pushing the 1X & Under 3.5 bet between Jagiellonia and Bodö/Glimt, which is offered at Happybet at a proud maximum odds of 2.20. We choose four units as the stake. If you want to claim a free bet without a deposit instead and are therefore looking for even higher odds, we even recommend a home win for the Yellow-Red team