Will the Black Forest perform a minor soccer miracle?
The preliminary round of the UEFA Europa League 2023/24 already saw two duels between the Hammers and the Black Forest. In both cases, the club from the Premier League came out on top. All experts therefore assumed that the Londoners’ progression to the quarter-finals would be a mere formality. However, Breisgau proved the critics wrong and won the first leg 1:0. If West Ham’s bet on a draw or even an away win for the Black Forest side against Freiburg pans out, it would be a minor soccer miracle
Even in the event of a defeat with just a one-goal difference, Sport-Club would at least save themselves for extra time, in which the “lucky punch” might be possible with the brutal efficiency that Christian Streich’s team showed in their 2:1 away win in Bochum. Nevertheless, West Ham v Freiburg is too risky a prediction to seriously consider betting on the Black Forest advancing.
However, the starting position plays into the Bundesliga club’s hands to a certain extent. West Ham United must now produce something in front of their home crowd, which should open up space for SC Freiburg time and again. These must be exploited as efficiently as possible if the narrow result from the first leg at the London Stadium is to be put to bed. We definitely trust the Breisgauers to score the away goal.
The bet that Sport-Club will score more than 0.5 goals in regular time is correspondingly consistent. Whether that will really be enough to progress, however, is another matter. Interwetten, where tickets for the international match between Germany and Holland are currently being raffled off, also offer value bets on an Asian handicap of +1.0 on the Breisgau team
West Ham – Statistics & current form
West Ham United lifted the European crown for the first time in 58 years last summer, marking the high point of a steady upward trend under David Moyes. After the European Cup Winners’ Cup in 1965, the Londoners secured their second international title with the Conference League.
The Hammers would now love to build on this triumph in the Europa League, where they sniffed their way to the final two years ago, only to be beaten in the semi-finals by eventual overall winners Eintracht Frankfurt.
West Ham have been incredibly strong at home internationally
The east Londoners’ recent record is nevertheless impressive. The Irons have won all of their last ten international home games in front of a home crowd. West Ham have scored an impressive 25 goals, which equates to 2.5 goals per European home game. At the same time, they have never conceded more than one goal per game (six goals in total).
If the Hammers can produce comparable figures in the second leg against Sport-Club, the betting on West Ham against Freiburg could still work out in favor of Moyes’ team advancing to the quarter-finals. The team from London’s East End won 2-0 at home against the Black Forest side in the group stage
The first leg defeat did not leave West Ham unscathed
However, the recent 1-0 defeat in Breisgau has certainly left its mark on the Hammers. At the weekend, WHUFC were held to a 2-2 draw by relegation-threatened Burnley FC, who had previously lost nine of their 13 away games in the Premier League (two wins and two draws) and scored just 12 goals in 13 away games.
Not only did this home game show that the Londoners are certainly vulnerable in their own stadium when their opponents are deep, as could now be the approach of the Black Forest. But it was also a bitter setback for the Irons in the battle for a top-six finish in the Premier League, which they will have to digest first.
Predicted West Ham line-up:
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
After two seasons in a row in which they were still in the draw for the Champions League starting places until shortly before the end, SC Freiburg are currently only eighth in the Bundesliga. At least internationally, however, the Black Forest side has recently caused a sensation on several occasions.
They “only” managed second place in the Europa League preliminary round due to two defeats against West Ham United, forcing the team from Breisgau into the play-offs. In the intermediate round, Sport-Club fought their way back against RC Lens in a remarkable display, defeating the French side 3:2 in front of their home crowd.
Freiburg need the efficiency of their recent win in Bochum
Despite a long winless streak in the Bundesliga, the team even managed to get revenge on the Hammers when they won the first leg 1-0 last Thursday. As a result, a draw away at the London Stadium will now be enough to see them through to the European quarter-finals for the first time in the club’s history.
The odds are in West Ham’s favor against Freiburg. However, it cannot be denied that the home win against the Irons has given the Black Forest a real boost. The SCF won 2:1 at home to Bochum on Sunday and proved their sometimes ice-cold efficiency in a tight match
Freiburg travel to London with high ambitions
This efficiency could now also be important in London’s East End, when goalkeeper Michael Gregoritsch will be in demand. Although the Austrian only played 299 competitive minutes in the Europa League in the 2023/24 season, he has already scored five goals. That means he needs an average of just 60 minutes per goal.
In any case, the Black Forest will not be traveling to the capital of the United Kingdom to hide away. After all, Sport-Club have not only won five of their last nine European away games (two draws, two defeats), but have now also won two in a row in knockout matches in international competitions.
Predicted Freiburg line-up:
West Ham – Freiburg Direct comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 2 – 0 – 1
Three competitive international matches have been played between the two teams so far and all three games date back to the 2023/24 season, when West Ham and Freiburg faced each other in the preliminary round of Group A. While the Hammers prevailed in both legs of the group stage, the Black Forest now secured an important 1-0 home win in the first leg of the round of 16
West Ham – Freiburg betting tip
West Ham vs Freiburg betting odds are clearly in favor of the Londoners. This is of course primarily due to the home strength of the Hammers, who have won all of their last ten European home games in a row, scoring a total of 25 goals and never conceding more than one goal (six goals in total). But: Sport-Club have also sold themselves dearly away from home in Europe and have only lost two of their last nine Europa League away games (five wins, two draws).
Another point in the Black Forest’s favor is the efficiency with which they demystified VfL Bochum 2-1 at home in the Bundesliga on Sunday, while the Hammers were held to a 2-2 draw at home by relegation-threatened Burnley FC. This means that West Ham v Freiburg is by no means a foregone conclusion.
In our opinion, the greatest value is provided by the bet that Sport-Club will score at least one goal in regulation time at the London Stadium. Betano is offering odds of 1.55 for the Black Forest to score, which we are playing with four units.
