Can the Hatters hold on at Dean Court?

Promoted Luton Town have not won in six Premier League games (two draws, four defeats). Nevertheless, the Hatters are only three points away from safety. An away win in the catch-up game at the Cherries could therefore give the team from the East of England hope of staying in the league. However, the betting odds on Bournemouth against Luton are not too good for a three-pointer for the visitors

If you look at the odds of the bookmakers, the home team is the heavy favorite, but in our opinion this is not really justified. After all, the Cherries have not won any of their four Premier League home games in the 2024 calendar year, which should definitely be taken into account in the prediction for Bournemouth vs. The Hatters have also won two of their last three away league games at Dean Court (one defeat).

Despite this, AFC Bournemouth, who have already picked up eleven more points than Luton Town from their first 27 league games of the 2023/24 season, are clearly favorites going into the game. After all, the Cherries have had no love for promoted teams since their own return to the Premier League. Bournemouth have not lost any of their eight Premier League duels with a team that played in the Championship in the previous season (five wins, three draws).

And yet the Hatters do not travel to the south-west of England without a chance. Luton have scored without exception in their last 15 Premier League games and prefer to score with their heads, which will certainly not always be easy for the Cherries to defend. Therefore, betting on a high-scoring match offers a lot of value, and we believe that it could be particularly intense in the second half. We therefore recommend betting on over 1.5 goals after the break

Bournemouth – Statistics & current form

AFC Bournemouth were promoted to the Premier League for the first time in the summer of 2015 and promptly stayed there for five years before returning to the top flight of English soccer for the 2022/23 season after two more seasons in the second tier.

After finishing 15th in the final league table last season, the Cherries are once again on course for relegation. After 27 league games, the club also known as Boscombe have 32 points. This puts Bournemouth eleven points clear of the first relegation spot, which is occupied by today’s visitors Luton Town.

Bournemouth have no heart for promoted teams

If the home side win the replay between Bournemouth and Luton, their lead over the first relegation spot would increase to 14 points with ten matchdays to go in the season. This would mean that planning for another year in the Premier League could slowly but surely begin in the ceremonial county of Dorset in the south-west of England

In the Cherries’ favor is the fact that they have done absolutely nothing against promoted sides since returning to the Premier League. Since the start of the 2022/23 season, Boscombe have not lost a single game in eight matches (five wins, three draws) against a team that was in the second tier the season before

Bournemouth in search of home strength

However, AFC Bournemouth’s task will not be a walk in the park. Not only have Andoni Iraola’s side won just three of their 13 Premier League home games in the 2023/24 season (five draws, five defeats), but Boscombe have also gone four league games at Dean Court in the 2024 calendar year without a win (two draws, two defeats).

Nevertheless, the Cherries will not go into this catch-up game without momentum. Bournemouth recently picked up four points out of a possible six in their two most recent league games against basement dwellers Burnley (2-0) and Sheffield United (2-2), scoring twice in both matches.

Predicted Bournemouth line-up:

Luton – Statistics & current form

Luton Town Football Club were surprisingly promoted to the Premier League last summer via the EFL Championship play-offs, where the club in the extravagant orange and dark blue club colors is a real exotic simply because of its curious home stadium.

Most bookmakers had the Hatters down as the number one relegation candidate. The situation in the table certainly supports this assessment. With just 21 points from 27 Premier League games, LTFC are in 18th place and below the bottom line

A win would be an absolute “big point” for Luton

Nonetheless, the club coached by Rob Edwards is still in contention. They are just three points adrift of Nottingham Forest in the first non-relegation place. So if the Hatters manage an away win at Dean Court, Luton Town could be back above the drop zone as early as Wednesday evening

Given that the orange and dark blue side have won two of their last three away games at the Cherries (one defeat), a three-pointer is by no means categorically out of the question. Nevertheless, the odds of the bookmakers clearly speak against an away win for Bournemouth against Luton

Luton are defensively vulnerable, but also accurate

This is also due to the fact that the Hatters come to the south-west of England without momentum. The team from the East of England region have not won in seven competitive games (two draws, five defeats) and have conceded a staggering 23 goals in those seven games – an average of more than three goals per game.

But: Luton Town know pretty well where their opponents’ goal is. The orange and dark blue side have scored without exception in their last 15 Premier League games, which is also due to the fact that many players with strong headers also pose a constant threat when nothing is possible from play and standards and high balls have to be used. Of the Hatters’ 38 Premier League goals, 13 have been scored with a header.

Predicted Luton line-up:

Bournemouth – Luton head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 25 – 17 – 22

There have been a total of 64 meetings between the two teams so far and AFC Bournemouth narrowly lead the head-to-head with 25 wins. However, of the last six meetings in league action, only one match has gone to the Cherries (three draws, two defeats).

Bournemouth – Luton betting tip

In principle, the prediction for Bournemouth v Luton goes to the home side, who have not lost any of their eight league games against teams that played in the EFL Championship in the previous season (five wins, three draws) since their return to the Premier League. However, the Cherries have not only won just one of their last six league games against the Hatters (three draws, two defeats), but have also gone the whole of calendar year 2024 without a home win (two draws, two defeats).

A point win for the visitors is therefore not out of the question, especially as the Hatters know where their opponents’ goal is and have scored without exception in their last 15 Premier League games. In particular, we expect a high-scoring second half and are betting on at least two goals after the break