Will Bochum be the first real stumbling block for BVB?

Borussia Dortmund went into the winter break in fifth place in the table, six and seven points behind RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart respectively. Only two match days have been played in the new year and yet the Black & Yellows have already caught up again. Because the two direct rivals for the Champions League places each lost twice and BVB picked up the maximum six points, the top four has long been within reach again for coach Edin Terzic’s team. From the Black & Yellows’ perspective, the aim now is to continue the upward trend on Sunday afternoon

However, VfL Bochum await Borussia as an opponent that has also made a good start to the 2024 season and has also proved to be a fearsome opponent time and again in the recent past. With regard to the Dortmund vs. Bochum prediction for matchday 19 in the Bundesliga, it is important to bear in mind that the clear underdogs have only lost one of the last five “small” regional derbies in the German top flight. In front of a home crowd, however, the role of favorites still clearly goes to BVB.

The team in fifth place in the table should definitely be warned, especially as VfL narrowly beat VfB Stuttgart 1:0 the previous week and have developed a knack under coach Thomas Letsch of taking away their opponents’ greatest strength from a team that is usually inferior in terms of quality. There are also certain match-up advantages for the 14th-placed team on Sunday. In particular, their high and aggressive pressing has the potential to cause problems for Borussia’s build-up play. This is one of the reasons why we are refraining from predicting a commanding victory for the reigning runners-up between Dortmund and Bochum

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Borussia Dortmund have regained some composure. After the numerous disappointments in the last few games before the winter break and the carelessly relinquished title hopes in the Bundesliga and DFB Cup, much was put to the test internally over Christmas. The ailing coach Edin Terzic was allowed to continue, but with Sahin and Sven Bender, he was given two new watchdogs as assistant coaches. However, the first impressions in the new year are largely positive. Against Darmstadt (3:0) and Cologne (4:0), as desired, high victories were achieved.

To put these successes into perspective, however, it should be mentioned that both opponents are the hottest contenders for relegation to Bundesliga 2 and that BVB itself had to overcome phases in these games in which it lost its naturalness. It would therefore certainly be presumptuous to say that the Black & Yellows are in particularly good form. The mandatory tasks were completed, the negative trend was halted and the first signs of improvement can be seen. But nothing more! Consequently, there is no value at all in the odds for a home win between Dortmund and Bochum

BVB are dreaming of the ease of days gone by

During the aforementioned negative run before Christmas, Dortmund failed to deliver much even in their own stadium. Only one win from the last four home matches in the Bundesliga underlines this just as impressively as the fact that only VfL Wolfsburg have collected fewer points than Borussia in front of their own fans since the beginning of December 2023. Of course, these statistics must also be put into perspective, but you have to let go of the idea that Terzic’s team will dominate their opponents by every trick in the book on Sunday afternoon and record a brilliant three points.

First and foremost, hope for a positive result is provided by the defense, which has kept two consecutive matches without conceding a goal for the first time in a year and a half in the Bundesliga. BVB kept a clean sheet in three of their five home wins throughout the season. In total, five of the nine victories, including the clean sheet, were won at home. Reason enough to think about a prediction of a “to-nil” home win for the CL aspirants this weekend between Dortmund and Bochum.

Speaking of thinking: Edin Terzic may also have had second thoughts when choosing his starting eleven. There are many indications that the two new winter signings Maatsen and Sancho will once again start from the beginning. However, Moukoko has recently put increasing pressure on Niclas Füllkrug up front. For the first time in his career, the youngster scored in consecutive BL matches. He also scored his only brace in the German top flight to date against upcoming opponents Bochum…

Predicted Dortmund line-up:

Bochum – Statistics & current form

You can only take your hat off to VfL Bochum. Although the traditional club from the Ruhr is not financially bedded on roses and is considered a potential candidate for relegation before every Bundesliga season, the Blue & Whites always manage to rise above themselves and draw their opponents to their own level for long stretches of a match. An interesting statistic shows, for example, that the respective opponents have an average pass rate against VfL that is around 10 percent lower than against other Bundesliga clubs.

The uncomfortable style of play, which offensively focuses on many long balls and a subsequent presence on the second balls, could therefore also cause problems for the Black & Yellows. Added to this is an early, aggressive approach, against which BVB have rarely found solutions so far. The current absolutely satisfactory situation in the table is therefore only the logical consequence and the deserved result of hard work. Although Bochum remain in the bottom third in 14th place, it is much more important that they are already nine points clear of the relegation places

Bochum have learned from their heavy away defeats

However, the away weakness is less positive. Of the last 13 Bundesliga games away from home, Letsch’s team have won just one (1-6-6). Only bottom club Darmstadt 98 have conceded more goals away from home. VfL also have the weakest goal difference. However, the team from the Ruhr proved that things can be done differently, for example in the 0-0 draw in Leipzig and the 0-0 draw in Heidenheim. The heavy defeats in Munich (0:7) and Stuttgart (0:5) in the first third of the season can be more or less ignored, as VfL now look much more stable. Visiting games for the blue and whites are therefore not necessarily a guarantee for goal spectacles.

Given that Bochum have lost just six of their 18 league games this season – half as many as at the same point last season – and have been on fire after a positive start with four points from two games and just one goal conceded, we think the underdogs can achieve a decent result in front of the yellow wall. However, with Takuma Asano, the most important attacker up front, still away at the Asian Cup, the offense is once again in danger of not being able to develop enough penetration. A narrow 1:0 or 2:0 win for BVB therefore seems quite possible in our eyes.

Predicted Bochum line-up:

Dortmund – Bochum Direct comparison / H2H balance

This is the 66th time the two rivals have faced each other in the German top flight. Dortmund lead the direct comparison with 25 wins, 23 draws and 17 defeats. Their home record is even more impressive, with 19 wins, seven draws and six defeats.

Far more interesting than a look at the history, however, are the most recent head-to-head meetings, in which BVB have struggled. Black & Yellows have won just one of the last five BL matches. The first leg in the current season ended 1:1. Only in one of the five meetings mentioned since 2021 would the over 3.5 have gone through, which is why we are definitely considering the odds for an under bet between Dortmund and Bochum

Dortmund – Bochum betting tip

The first two matchdays of the new year could not have gone better for Borussia Dortmund. Leipzig and Stuttgart both dropped points, while BVB themselves conceded six points out of a possible six. Nevertheless, not all that glitters is gold for the Black & Yellows. Although their performances have been decent, their opponents have not been the benchmark for the Champions League round of 16 finalists, who now face a completely different test on Sunday afternoon.

VfL are also only 14th, but have proven on several occasions over the course of the season that they are an extremely ungrateful opponent. In the previous week, Letsch’s team won against VfB Stuttgart and even kept a clean sheet. However, as Kevin Stöger and Co. have far more problems scoring away from home, it is understandable that lower odds are offered on a home win between Dortmund and Bochum

We are also moving away from a potential bet on a home win and instead are strongly leaning towards a bet on a maximum of three goals in the course of the match in the small Revier derby Dortmund vs Bochum.