Who will win the MVP duel?
6th AFC Championship Game in a row meets first career AFC Championship Game. In other words: Patrick Mahomes meets Lamar Jackson in our Ravens vs. Chiefs betting tip for the upcoming NFL playoff weekend.
This will also be a duel between the reigning MVP and the future MVP, as hardly anyone doubts that Jackson will receive this award in a few days. Does this also mean that we will see an extremely high-class game?
If we take the Chiefs last two games as a basis, then yes. If we use the regular season as a blueprint, then this matchup would probably be a clear-cut affair in favor of Baltimore, who have played a much better season.
However, a Mahomes in the playoffs is always a bit more difficult to beat, which is why our prediction for Ravens vs Chiefs is also a duel at eye level, in which an away win for the Chiefs would not be a big surprise
Kick-off of this AFC Conference Final is on Sunday at 21:00 in Baltimore. The game can be watched live on RTL and DAZN.
Baltimore Ravens – Statistics & current form
The Ravens currently look like a team that is almost impossible to beat. Even a slightly weaker half like the one against the Texans didn’t throw them off their stride and they impressed across the board in the second half.
However, the last three drives before the half-time break also showed how the Ravens can theoretically be stopped. When the run game is taken away from them, they sometimes falter, especially when Jackson’s deep passes don’t work
Mark Andrews returns
So much for the theory – in practice, however, it looks like the regular No. 1 tight end Mark Andrews will also return for Sunday, which will be a significant boost for the passing game. With Andrews and Likely, the Ravens will have the best tight end duo in the entire NFL on the field.
Likely has scored five touchdowns in his last five games, leading the team. As the bookmakers are now expecting fewer chances for Likely due to the return of Andrews, betting on a touchdown from Likely on Sunday is our first big betting recommendation – at excellent odds.
We get up to 4.50 as value, which we can definitely take advantage of. Because we expect him to get even more chances in the end zone now, as the defense will increasingly take care of Andrews.
Tip on many points are also an option
One thing we’ve learned in the playoffs in recent years. Picks against Patrick Mahomes are to be avoided, as he often switches into Terminator mode. Since Lamar Jackson has also been in exactly this mode recently, we get more good betting options.
Although the best defense in the league in terms of points conceded (Ravens: 16.5) will face the second-best (Chiefs 17.3), we expect a rather offensive game. In the last three duels between these two teams, an average of 62.0 total points has been scored.
This trend is likely to continue, which is why the odds of over 44.5 total points for Baltimore vs. Kansas City are also very good. We even expect a significantly higher total.
Key Players:
- QB: Lamar Jackson
- RB: Gus Edwards
- WR: Zay Flowers
- TE: Mark Andrews
- K: Justin Tucker
Kansas City Chiefs – stats & current form
They’ve done it again: The Kansas City Chiefs are playing in the AFC Championship Game for the sixth time in six years. To date, their record stands at 3-2 wins. The two losses came against Tom Brady and his Pats and the Bengals with Joe Burrow.
Now they face the AFC’s No. 1 team, the Ravens. This also means that the Chiefs will have to play the AFC Finals away from Arrowhead Stadium for the first time. However, their 6-2 away record this season was actually better than their 5-4 home record.
Chiefs always high-scoring against the Ravens
This Jackson vs. Mahomes matchup has happened four times in the NFL, with the record being 3-1 in favor of Mahomes. All of those games have also seen over 50 total points scored, with an average of 59.2, making the 44.5 points projected for Sunday very low.
So a bet on over 44.5 points is definitely recommended for Baltimore vs Kansas City. Just like a bet on the Chiefs over 20 points. Because Patrick Mahomes often runs particularly hot in these matchups against the best.
Mahomes’ last three passer ratings in this duel were: 132.0, 133.5 and 131.5 – all outstanding. This led to an average of 34.0 Chiefs points over these three encounters
Bets on the Chiefs are possible
We have already talked about a duel at eye level and due to the significantly higher odds for the Chiefs this means: We can place bets on them. However, this is not our main betting tip – especially as the Ravens are currently very difficult to beat on a strong day.
Rather, the odds on a touchdown from Isaiah Likely or the aforementioned over-points are to be played for Ravens vs Chiefs. We also get strong value on these and we don’t have to bet against either Jackson or Mahomes.
Key Players:
- QB: Patrick Mahomes
- RB: Isiah Pacheco
- WR: Rashee Rice
- TE: Travis Kelce
- K: Harrison Butker
Baltimore Ravens – Kansas City Chiefs head-to-head comparison / H2H record
We have already mentioned that Jackson vs. Mahomes has been played four times and three times in favor of Mahomes. Beyond that, however, the score between these two teams is 5:5 over the last ten games.
The current form speaks more in favor of Baltimore, the playoff history more in favor of the Chiefs and Mahomes. Pat Mahomes’ playoff record with the Chiefs is 13-3, whereas Lamar Jackson’s is just 2-3.
It goes back and forth in terms of advantages and neither team can pull away in one direction. We always find other statistics that speak against it. Therefore, in Baltimore vs. Kansas City, a bet on a player bet, e.g. on Isaiah Liekly, is a good way out with extra good value
Baltimore Ravens – Kansas City Chiefs Tip
Home field advantage and regular season form favor the Ravens, Mahomes playoff record and his performances against Lamar Jackson favor the Chiefs. If we had to choose, we would prefer to bet on Kansas City, but with a few stomach aches.
Therefore, our No. 1 bet for Ravens vs. Chiefs is a touchdown by Isaiah Likely. No other player on either side has a better TD record in the last five games – not even fellow tight end Travis Kelce
Alternatively, the aforementioned over-points bets are in play. In any case, we consider the 44.5 total points set by the bookmakers to be too few, even though both defenses have played outstandingly this season.
