Can the goal-happy Black Forest make it exciting again?
Not even Liverpool FC (16) have scored as often in the group stage of the 2023/24 Europa League season as SC Freiburg (17). The Black Forest side have twelve points out of a possible 15 and a goal difference of +12 (17:5). Nevertheless, they would have missed out on winning the group if the bet on an away win for Christian Streich’s team at West Ham against Freiburg did not work out
This awkward starting position is due to the fact that the team from Breisgau lost the first leg against the Hammers 2-1. Consequently, the Londoners, who suffered a 2-1 defeat at Olympiakos Piraeus on matchday 3, will be satisfied with a draw at home. Against this backdrop, the forecast for West Ham against Freiburg is that the Irons will book a direct ticket to the round of 16
But it is precisely because of the tremendous attacking verve that Sport-Club have shown in the Europa League so far that Streich’s side will certainly be looking to win again at the London Stadium. After all, that would save them two competitive games in an already busy schedule in the spring of 2023. We expect the Black Forest to be correspondingly powerful and it could be correspondingly high-scoring.
Against this backdrop, the bet on over 2.5 goals is very interesting and also takes into account West Ham United’s curious recent results. A surprising 2:1 away win in the London derby at Tottenham was followed by an even more surprising 0:5 in the next London derby at Fulham
West Ham – Statistics & current form
West Ham United secured their first international title in 58 years this summer. The European Cup Winners’ Cup in 1965 was followed by overall victory in the UEFA Conference League.
Now the footballers from London’s East End want to continue their recent success at international level. Back in 2021/22, the Irons also reached the semi-finals of the Europa League, where the Hammers were beaten by eventual overall winners Eintracht Frankfurt
Nine home wins in a row in competitive European matches
David Moyes’ side didn’t let too much slip in the group stage. There was an unexpected 2:1 away defeat at Olympiakos Piraeus on matchday 3. However, the Hammers have won all of their other four group games, scoring 7:2 goals – including the first leg in Breisgau (2:1).
Consequently, the odds are now also tipping in favor of the Londoners ahead of the second leg between West Ham and Freiburg, who have won all of their last nine European home games at the London Stadium, including the qualifying rounds. The Irons could now become the fifth team from England to record ten consecutive home wins in Europe
The Hammers sometimes lack consistency
While the Conference League winners, who had a very complicated season in the Premier League in 2022/23, are currently in a slightly better position nationally in ninth place in England’s top division. However, not only have they already conceded 30 goals in 16 league games, they have also suffered six defeats.
The Hammers have lacked consistency time and time again. After an unexpected 2-1 away win at Tottenham, the Irons suffered a remarkably clear 5-0 defeat in another derby at Fulham FC last Sunday.
Predicted West Ham line-up:
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
SC Freiburg got off to a dream start in the Bundesliga twice in a row recently and fought for a long time to reach the Champions League in both 2021/22 and 2022/23. In the end, the Black Forest side reached the Europa League on both occasions, reaching the knockout rounds last season.
It is already certain that Sport-Club will still be in the draw in spring 2024. The only question is whether Christian Streich’s team will go straight through to the round of 16 as group winners or whether they will face a team that finished third in the Champions League in mid-February
No team has scored more goals in the Europa League than Freiburg
Although SC Freiburg are certainly not playing a leading role in the Europa League Winners 2024 Prediction and are clearly overshadowed by top teams such as Liverpool, AS Roma, Leverkusen, Brighton, West Ham, Villarreal and Atalanta Bergamo, the Black Forest side have clearly outperformed all of these teams in at least one category so far: goals scored.
The team from Breisgau scored no fewer than 17 goals in the first five matchdays of the group stage – an average of 3.4 goals per Europa League group game. Accordingly, the betting tip for West Ham v Freiburg is that the second leg at the London Stadium will go down to the wire once again
The second fewest away goals in the Bundesliga
In addition, the Bundesliga side arrive for their first ever competitive game in England with plenty of momentum. The Black Forest side have won their last three competitive games in a row without conceding a goal and have climbed back up to eighth place in the top flight of German soccer.
Meanwhile, Sport-Club need to improve their performance away from home. In the Europa League, they won both of their games in Piraeus (3:2) and at FK TSC (3:1). In the Bundesliga, however, Breisgau have scored just six goals in eight away Bundesliga games – the second-lowest tally in the league. However, the fact that those six goals are enough for a haul of ten points out of a possible 24 (sixth place in the away table) also speaks volumes for the efficiency of the team from Baden-Württemberg.
Predicted Freiburg line-up:
West Ham – Freiburg Direct comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 1 – 0 – 0
West Ham United’s 2:1 away win in Breisgau was also the first meeting between the two teams. As a result, the Hammers lead the head-to-head against the Black Forest side, who are now visiting England for a competitive match for the very first time in their club’s history
West Ham – Freiburg betting tip
Basically, our prediction for West Ham v Freiburg tends towards a point for the Londoners, who would thus wrap up group victory. However, a bet on the Hammers still involves high risks. The range of recent results has been too wide, which has been very evident in the last two games: a 2:1 at Tottenham was followed by a 0:5 at Fulham.
In view of the fact that the Bundesliga side have scored the most goals in the Europa League group stage so far (17), the Black Forest can be expected to put in a brave performance in their first ever competitive match in England. Against this backdrop, the bet on a high-scoring match is very interesting
