Are the Rouges-et-Bleu getting revenge for the first leg defeat?

While many a Champions League preliminary round group has already been decided, anything is still possible in Group of Death F. Borussia Dortmund currently lead with seven points ahead of Paris Saint-Germain with six points. Newcastle United, on the other hand, are currently last with four points. However, if PSG’s bet on an away win for the Magpies against Newcastle pans out, Eddie Howe’s side would definitely overtake the Rouges-et-Bleu

NUFC already proved that the Brits have what it takes to outplay the billion-dollar French showpiece club in their brilliant 4-1 first-leg victory. Of course, the Parisiens will be desperate to return the favor, especially as a home win would secure their place in the round of 16 if Dortmund do not lose the parallel match in Milan. In principle, the prediction for PSG against Newcastle also tends towards a home win for the French side

It is worth noting that Newcastle United have only scored four goals in the first leg against Paris Saint-Germain and have failed to score in any of their other three group games. Just in time for the second leg, however, the Magpies warmed up nicely at the weekend with a 4-1 home win against Chelsea FC. It would be correspondingly risky to write off the British side prematurely and bet on the Rouges-et-Bleu, especially as NUFC must play for victory to stay in the competition after their two recent defeats against Dortmund.

The greatest value is provided by the bet that superstar Kylian Mbappé, who already has seven goals in twelve games against Premier League teams in the top flight, will score at least one goal in this second leg

PSG – statistics & current form

Paris Saint-Germain continue to dominate French club soccer. However, despite their immense star power, they are still struggling at international level. Only under current Bayern coach Thomas Tuchel did they make it as far as the Champions League final in the summer of 2020, although they lost 1-0 to Bayern.

Most recently, the Rouges-et-Bleu reached the last 16 of the Champions League twice in a row, prompting them to invest huge sums in new personnel and install a new coach for the 2023/24 season. Spaniard Luis Enrique acquired new players, for whom around 350 million euros were spent in transfer fees alone

Won seven of their last eight competitive matches

The interim result is quite acceptable. There have been no slip-ups in Ligue 1 for some time now. In the dress rehearsal at the weekend, they consolidated their lead in the table with a brilliant 5:2 victory over AS Monaco.

In the Champions League, the Parisiens are currently second in Group F with two home wins and two away defeats and would therefore qualify for the round of 16 as things stand. They will now be looking for a third win in their third home game

Offensively, almost everything runs through Kylian Mbappé

In any case, it is clear that Kylian Mbappé is currently responsible for almost everything. The attacker, who temporarily fell out of favor in the summer, has already scored 14 goals in Ligue 1 alone and is the undisputed leader of the internal goalscoring charts.

Directly behind him, with three goals each, are new arrivals such as Goncalo Ramos and Randal Kolo Muani, who came to the Seine with high expectations but have yet to fully live up to them. All the more reason why Kylian Mbappé, who has scored an impressive seven goals (five goals, two assists) in twelve games against English clubs in the top flight so far, will be the man to watch in this second leg against the Magpies.

PPG’s expected line-up:

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

The newly rich Newcastle United Football Club wanted to play a major role nationally and internationally again in the medium term with the help of millions from the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund Public Investment Fund, which has owned the four-time English champions since 2021.

In their first year with a new squad, the Magpies finished fourth in the final table and were delighted to return to the Champions League after a 21-year absence. Overall, however, the north-east side fell short of the high expectations raised by the previous season in 2023/24

Last two extremely poor performances against Dortmund

NUFC currently sit seventh in the Premier League with 23 points out of a possible 39 and are already five points behind the top four. Meanwhile, Eddie Howe’s side are bottom of the Champions League after four group games with four points from a possible twelve.

However, if PSG’s bet on an away win against Newcastle pans out, the Magpies would in any case overtake the Rouges-et-Bleu and suddenly be back on course. Accordingly, it would be important to show the strong face from the 4-1 first-leg victory over the French and not the pale faces from the recent duels with Borussia Dortmund, when NUFC only managed a combined expected goals value of 0.83 in two defeats

Full of injured players and little consistency

After losing two games in a row, the Magpies bounced back in style at the weekend. Newcastle United swept aside Chelsea FC 4-1 in the Premier League, building on their performances earlier in the month when they dispatched Manchester United 3-0 away in the EFL Cup before also beating the title-chasing Gunners 1-0.

The North East side’s great weapon is undoubtedly their versatility. The offensive threat is spread across several shoulders. However, the fact that Eddie Howe’s team are currently so full of injured players does not bode well for their visit to the Seine.

Predicted line-up for Newcastle:

PSG – Newcastle head-to-head comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 0 – 0 – 1

The first leg on October 4, 2023 was the first and only meeting between the two teams to date. The 4-1 home win at St. James’ Park put Newcastle United ahead in the head-to-head. The Magpies, who have won just one of their seven previous visits to France (two draws, four defeats), will now visit the Parc des Princes in Paris for the first time. PSG have lost six of their last eight home games there against Premier League sides (two wins).

PSG – Newcastle betting tip

All in all, the tendency for PSG against Newcastle is to predict a home game for the French side, who have struggled against English clubs so far. Even in the first leg, little worked out in the clear 4-1 defeat at St. James’ Park. At least at national level, however, the Rouges-et-Bleu have managed to turn things around and celebrated a convincing 5:2 dress rehearsal against AS Monaco at the weekend. The Parisiens have now won seven of their last eight competitive matches (one defeat).

The Magpies, on the other hand, were only convincing in the first leg against the Rouges-et-Bleu and remained scoreless and winless in their other three Champions League group games (one draw, two defeats). The British side therefore have their backs to the wall and must play for victory at the Parc des Princes. This could open up space for transitional situations, which in turn plays into the hands of Kylian Mbappé, who is as quick as an arrow.

We therefore recommend betting that the Parisiens superstar will score at least one goal in this second leg. Bet365 is offering odds of 1.83 on PSG v Newcastle for a Mbappé goal. We think this bet is worth four out of ten units