Will BVB take advantage of Bayern’s unrest in the classic?

As if the classic in German soccer wasn’t already explosive enough after the dramatic 2022/23 season finale and the long-standing rivalry between Borussia Dortmund and FC Bayern Munich, the record champions have put themselves under even more pressure after their embarrassing elimination from the DFB Cup. Tuchel’s team lost 2:1 at third-division side Saarbrücken and had to bury their dream of Berlin in the second main round. FCB will therefore travel to Signal Iduna Park with a lot of anger in their stomachs and without numerous key players…

Joshua Kimmich is suspended, Leon Goretzka still has some catching up to do after his injury and there is also a serious personnel bottleneck in central defense after the loss of De Ligt, which could have an impact on the encounter between two unbeaten teams. It is therefore all the more surprising that the odds on the reigning champions between Dortmund and Bayern are significantly lower. In view of odds in the 1.80-1.85 range, the best bookmakers therefore consider an away win for the league runners-up to be more likely than a point for Black & Yellow.

It remains to be seen whether this bold assessment by the bookmakers, which has not changed in any way despite Wednesday’s cup sensation, is actually justified. In any case, many experts prefer to predict a high-scoring match between Dortmund and Bayern. Both teams certainly have their strengths on the offensive and could deliver a lively exchange of blows.

Dortmund – statistics & current form

About one and a half months before the start of the winter break, Borussia Dortmund continues to dance on all three highs. The Black & Yellows narrowly won the DFB Cup 1:0 at home against TSG Hoffenheim on Wednesday, their chances of progressing in the Champions League have also increased thanks to their success in Newcastle and BVB, who are still unbeaten in the Bundesliga championship race, are keeping pace at the top, even though they had to settle for a spectacular 3:3 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt the previous week.

Coach Edin Terzic’s team have not lost in 17 (!) league games this season. Significantly, the last defeat came in April 2023 in a 4:2 draw in Munich. Nevertheless, this impressive unbeaten streak is certainly a good reason to take a look at the odds for the double chance 1X in the classic Dortmund v Bayern match on Saturday evening. We don’t see BVB as such a blatant underdog in their own stadium as the bookmakers do. Especially because 13 of a possible 15 points have been scored in front of a home crowd in the current season. Borussia have not lost in 21 home matches in the Bundesliga

Dortmund still has plenty of room for improvement

Although Dortmund have already celebrated five 1-0 victories in all competitions this season, the frequency of these results should not obscure the fact that coach Terzic pursues a very offensive approach and has benefited in some games from a lot of luck and an outstanding keeper in the box.

At the same time, however, the BVB offense has to be criticized for making too little of its chances and the decision-making in the final third is anything but masterful. Because space will automatically open up at the weekend against Munich, who will also be a force to be reckoned with, the 80,000-plus spectators at Signal Iduna Park are likely to see a goal or two.

This is also supported by the fact that no other Bundesliga team has scored more goals in the 2023 calendar year than the reigning runners-up, who will once again be relying on the individual quality and strength of form of Julian Brandt. In no fewer than eight (!) consecutive Bundesliga matches, the international has recently been involved in at least one goal. The dependence on Marco Reus was once again made clear in the cup during the week. As so often, it was the veteran who scored the important 1:0 winner.

In terms of personnel, coach Edin Terzic will in all likelihood be able to draw from the full squad. However, the appearances of Emre Can and Marius Wolf are still in doubt. Gregor Kobel, Felix Nmecha and Mats Hummels, who were all struggling, were available against Hoffenheim and will also be fit to play on Saturday.

Predicted Dortmund line-up:

Bayern – Statistics & current form

After things had gone suspiciously quiet at FC Bayern in recent weeks and months, mainly due to consistently good results, it only took 90 minutes and a last-minute goal against 1. FC Saarbrücken on Wednesday evening to revive FC Hollywood. All the doubters immediately came out of their shells and pilloried Thomas Tuchel in particular.

The criticism of the 50-year-old was not entirely unfounded, however. After all, he had been without his top scorer Harry Kane for the entire match and had made questionable and at times arrogant statements about the match in the run-up to the game, which blew up in his face following the embarrassment against the third division side. But to now immediately doubt everything again and, among other things, question whether Tuchel can still reach the dressing room is completely presumptuous. Regardless of this, the FCB professionals are eager to make amends on Saturday. They definitely owe it to the fans, especially as only a small group of six players had the idea of thanking the fans for their support after the final whistle in Saarbrücken

What will Bayern’s starting eleven look like?

The immense potential of the record champions should not be neglected in our Dortmund vs Bayern prediction. In the previous week, FCB conceded eight (!) goals in one half to newly promoted Darmstadt. In addition, the offense has scored at least two goals of its own in all nine Bundesliga matches so far. No other club in Europe’s top five leagues currently has more goals to its name than the German champions (34). In seven of the nine Bundesliga matches involving the southern Germans mentioned above, a bet on the over 3.5 would have gone through. There is therefore much to suggest a top match with plenty of goals!

If we look at Munich’s season so far, regardless of the result, it is noticeable that there is no clear signature of the coach. What do Tuchel’s Bayern stand for? What is the plan against deep teams? Nagelsmann’s successor relies much more on the high individual quality of his stars and has been successful so far. Harry Kane has already scored twelve goals and 17 points this season, Jamal Musiala is getting stronger from week to week and Leroy Sané is also in the form of his life at the moment. As a Bundesliga team, you can’t really have more goal threat on the pitch.

Further back on the pitch, however, the need is great. De Ligt injured his knee in Saarbrücken through no fault of his own and may not play another game in 2023. Upamecano did return to team training this week, but is still sidelined after tearing a muscle fiber. Nevertheless, the Frenchman will probably have to start from the beginning. Especially because coach Tuchel also lacks options in central midfield. Goretzka is coming back from injury, Kimmich is suspended and the coach would perhaps have preferred Laimer as a right-back instead of the inconsistent Mazraoui.

Predicted Bayern line-up:

Dortmund – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H balance

For Borussia Dortmund, the last few matches against FC Bayern have not been characterized by success. The Black & Yellows have lost nine of their last ten competitive matches against the men from the Isar. Only between 1998 and 2002 did Dortmund have such a long winless streak against the record champions. Inevitably, the Dortmund vs Bayern betting odds for a home win should therefore be treated with caution.

Even more exciting, however, is the number of goals scored in the most recent meetings. Twelve of the last 13 head-to-head Bundesliga meetings between these teams have seen at least four goals scored. In 2022/23, Munich won 4-2 at home against BVB and equalized 2-2 shortly before the end through Anthony Modeste at Signal Iduna Park. In five of the last six classics in the German top flight, there have also been two or more goals before the break. For particularly risk-averse bettors, it is therefore certainly worth considering betting on both teams scoring in the first 45 minutes

Dortmund – Bayern betting tip

No Bundesliga match has electrified the masses in soccer Germany in recent years as much as Borussia Dortmund against Bayern. On Saturday evening from 18:30, we can once again look forward to a first-class drama at Signal Iduna Park. BVB will be looking to take advantage of the unrest at the defending champions and, for the first time in ten consecutive matches without a win, will be looking to take three points against FCB and move up the table.

Coach Thomas Tuchel’s team, who will have to improvise in a number of positions in his starting eleven, will be keen to make amends after the cup disaster and will be hoping first and foremost for the return of Harry Kane, who sat on the bench for 90 minutes against Saarbrücken. With Kane, Sané, Musiala, Coman and Müller, the reigning champions currently have one of the most potent attacks in Europe. The BVB defense will therefore face a massive task, which could even turn out to be too complicated

In our opinion, it’s not a good idea to place a bet on the winner of this match anyway. However, if we had to commit ourselves, we would rather aim for the double chance 1X due to the (too) high odds. However, our recommendation is to place a bet on at least four goals between Dortmund and Bayern during the course of the match.

This bet would have been successful in twelve of the last 13 BL duels between these teams. Both teams repeatedly struggle with weaknesses in defense, but at the same time have high-class attacking lines at their disposal