Will the Bills roll over the Patriots again?
It’s already the seventh game day of the NFL and in the AFC there is a duel of the East Division, which is also a match of absolute opposites. In the “Gillette Stadium” the currently worst team of the “American Football Conference”, the New England Patriots, receives the Buffalo Bills. A tip on the favorites from the state of New York brings – with a favorite position of 8.5 points on the markets – but hardly any value. Bookmakers are not awarding a bigger handicap to any team in week seven.
Is the glorious Bill Belichick era coming to an end for the Foxborough franchise? As things stand, it’s by no means out of the question that they will part ways after this season and after a total of 23 successful years with six NFL championships. But that’s still up in the air, and in the here and now, the Pats stand with just one win out of six games. Add to that the ongoing debate over 3rd-year quarterback Mac Jones, whose performances – strictly speaking – provide new material for that discussion week after week, and the upcoming game could well become his fate game.
All is well in Buffalo? From a record standpoint, head coach Sean McDermott’s franchise is certainly satisfied with its start to the season, but the performances in recent weeks – including the performance and the associated loss in London against the Jaguars – have been anything but convincing. Will they finally manage a better performance when they host Foxborough? We have analyzed the matchup and despite the lopsided Patriots vs. Bills odds, we have found it.
New England Patriots – stats & current form
Can the New England Patriots defense also limit the visiting offense? This unit undoubtedly has what it takes, but the injury worries have become quite large. The most prominent absences are probably linebacker Matthew Judon and cornerbacks Marcus Jones and rookie Christian Gonzales. It’s possible those three players will also be missing in three weeks when the Patriots visit Germany to face the Colts in Frankfurt.
If there is one unit on Bill Belichick’s team that can be held up as a showpiece, it would still be the defense, even if the point statistics speak a different language. Previous opponents scored an average of 25.3 points, and so the Pats conceded over 20 in five of the six games, and even over 30 in weeks four and five. Still, they rank in the top-10 in defensive unit comparisons.
Far too little offensively
This is mainly because the offense makes too many mistakes and leaves opposing offenses a “short field” due to turnovers in their own half. So the opponents then have to cover only a few yards in some cases for their points. The already counted quarterback Mac Jones stands at five touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Against the Raiders, he again had mistakes in his game and threw over – almost unchallenged – the completely free tight end Hunter Henry. This pass was intercepted by Tre’von Moehrig and afterwards Las Vegas extended the lead to 13:3.
Strictly speaking, the offense lacks any baseline in part because the running game is almost non-existent at 83.7 yards and 3.4 yards per play. There are only three teams that gain less space per run attempt. Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry are the top two targets for Jones in the passing game, each marking two touchdowns already.
Key Players:
- QB: Mac Jones
- RB: Rhamondre Stevenson
- WR: Kendrick Bourne
- TE: Hunter Henry
- K: Chad Ryland
Buffalo Bills – stats & current form
While the Patriots have just five passing touchdowns on their record, the Bills stand at 13, with wide receiver Stefon Diggs alone recording as many passing catches in the end zone as their upcoming opponent. Pass receiver Gabe Davis recorded four touchdowns, followed by quarterback Josh Allen, who already has three rushing touchdowns to his credit. All available New England running backs come to a total of three, by the way. Between the Patriots and Bills, those numbers make it difficult to predict that the home side can keep up in terms of scoring.
Somewhat disappointing of late
Without a doubt, Buffalo’s most convincing performance came against the Miami Dolphins in week four. However, the trip to England was then less worthwhile as they were defeated 20-25 by Jacksonville at “Tottenham Hotspur Stadium”. Back home, they struggled for a long time in the Sunday Night Game against the New York Giants and only won 14-6 thanks to two touchdowns in the final quarter. Now – on paper – a much better defense awaits than on the previous matchday. So should a bet on relatively few points by the visitors be considered for the Patriots vs. the Bills?
We answer this question in the negative, because the breakdowns in the Pats defense will make it incredibly difficult for this unit to stop the top-8 passing offense. With the pass receivers available, Buffalo will be able to move the ball very consistently, although don’t discount the fact that Josh Allen is currently playing with shoulder soreness. They also have a solid running game, averaging 118.2 yards.
Sean McDermott’s rushing defense in particular has been vulnerable so far, but it’s a realistic scenario that the visitors will try to shut down the Pats’ running game against New England. If Buffalo can limit the hosts in that area, Mac Jones and his pass receivers will have to move the ball through the air. In this case, between the Patriots and Bills, our predictions for the home side darken even more.
Key Players:
- QB: Josh Allen
- RB: James Cook
- WR: Stefon Diggs
- TE: Dawson Knox
- K: Tyler Bass
New England Patriots – Buffalo Bills Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
We’re looking at the last five meetings in this divisional duel, as Mac Jones and Josh Allen faced off in each of those. New England has won just one game since December 2021, while Buffalo has had the upper hand four times recently. The last home win in a head-to-head matchup was in 2019, dating back to the Tom Brady era.
Three of the five games highlighted featured at least 42 points – and that would be enough to cross the over/under mark on Sunday. In the matchups in which the scoring mark was cracked, the Bills always scored over 30 points.
New England Patriots – Buffalo Bills Tip
Generally, we can imagine Buffalo scoring similar amount of points in the upcoming duel, even if they lacked offensive power recently. The matchup is simply conceivably bad for Belichick’s team due to injury concerns in the defensive unit, and since more than 24 points is already enough to rack up attractive betting odds between the Patriots and Bills, this is one of our recommendations. It could be a bounce-back game for the visitors after two poor performances.
At the end of this text, this forecast probably comes as no surprise: we expect New England’s losing streak to continue. The offense cannot be trusted at all at the moment, even if the duel on the ground seems statistically good. Therefore, our main tip is that the home side will put a maximum of 16 points on the scoreboard and this recommendation brings odds of 1.71 between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills at the top.
The last four games were always won by the franchise from the state of New York by at least twelve points and it would be quite a surprise if that would change in the 128th direct meeting.
