Surprisingly many goals in the Merseyside derby?

The 209th Merseyside derby will take place on Saturday at noon in England’s top division. No other pairing has ended in a draw more often (69) than the clash between Liverpool FC and Everton. However, that is by no means the only record this encounter has set. In the Premier League, this derby has also seen 22 (!) red cards, twelve goalless draws, and five LFC goals in injury time. Excitement and explosiveness are therefore in the air at Anfield Road.

In terms of the table, however, the starting position is relatively clear. The Reds are quite clearly favored as the current fourth in the table, but remained winless in each of the two league games before the international break.

However, with the visitors from the blue part of the Beatles’ city stuck in the bottom third of the standings again in 2023/24 and having already picked up ten points less than their Mersey rivals in the first eight matchdays, betting on a home win provides the lower odds between Liverpool and Everton.

Liverpool – statistics & current form

Liverpool Football Club has played eleven competitive matches so far this season. Only one of them was lost. In the 1:2 against Tottenham at the end of September, however, everything had to come together for the Reds to leave the pitch as losers.

First, a regulation goal was wrongly disallowed after a gross VAR faux pas, then Curtis Jones was sent off with a red card, and as if that wasn’t enough, it took a spectacular own goal by Joel Matip in stoppage time (!) to defeat Jürgen Klopp’s team 2-1. That, in turn, impressively shows that the fifth-placed team from last year is definitely one to watch again this season.

Liverpool need the ultimate thrill

The current fourth-placed team in the table, who had to live with a 2-2 draw at Brighton in their last game before the international break – also after conceding a late goal – will be desperate to confirm that assessment this weekend. In the Liverpool vs. Everton derby, the odds on the three-way market underpin the clear role of favorites for the Klopp team, which has always been able to mark at least one own goal in the last 18 Premier League games.

In any case, the current deficits are rather defensive in nature, because in the review of the past ten league games managed just a single clean sheet. In eleven competitive games this season, the only clean sheets were 3-0 against Aston Villa and 2-0 in the Europa League against Royale Union SG. In total, the team has already conceded nine goals in league play, seven of them (!) in the first half. At all only three times LFC went into the break with a lead, which brings us some interesting betting options statistically closer.

For example, it is conceivable to make a prediction between Liverpool and Everton that the home side will score more goals after the break than in the first 45 minutes. Alternatively, you can bet on Mo Salah and Co. to make a comeback. Four of their five PL victories this season have come after going behind. The aforementioned Salah could, incidentally, once again become the X-factor, after all, he was involved in his last 23 league games for LFC in 27 goals (16 goals, eleven assists). In his past twelve appearances at Anfield alone, the right-winger has been able to add his name to the scorers’ list as a scorer or provider of assists.

Predicted Liverpool lineup:

Everton – statistics & current form

Let me introduce myself, my name is Jack Harrison. Admittedly, there is no word on how the summer newcomer from Leeds United introduced himself to his new teammates at Liverpool, but at the latest since the last league game before the international break, his teammates and the fans have taken the 26-year-old to their hearts. After missing a long time due to a hip injury, Harrison made his starting debut in Everton’s 3-0 home win over Bournemouth, immediately registering a goal and an assist.

So what does the aforementioned Jack Harrison have to do with Saturday’s Merseyside derby? The answer is: many things! Firstly, the former U21 international took his first steps as an ambitious footballer in the youth department of LFC. For another, he was able to score his very first first league goal in September 2020 at Anfield Road, of all places. As if the story wasn’t corny enough, Harrison was also on the pitch in the Reds’ last home defeat in the Premier League to date – in October 2022, then still in the employ of Leeds United.

Everton with many ups and downs recently

Regardless of whether the Leeds loanee will be on the pitch on Saturday, the stakes are naturally very high for the Toffees at Anfield. Of the last 25 PL duels against their city rivals, only one has been won. To make matters worse, the start to this season has once again been anything but according to plan. The team is currently ranked 16th. Five of the first eight matches were lost. The lead over the first relegation spot is just three points.

There is some hope, however, as the only two wins have come in the last three matches. In addition to the aforementioned 3-0 win against Bournemouth, there was also a surprising 3-1 victory at Brentford.

In between, however, they suffered an embarrassing home defeat against sensationally promoted Luton Town (1:2), which proved that the Blues are far from consistent. At least the seven goals scored in the aforementioned period are encouraging, however, that at least one goal of their own will be scored in Saturday’s derby. There is no lack of individual quality in the offense, so that a prediction of goals from both teams in the duel between Liverpool and Everton does not seem out of the question.

Predicted Everton lineup:

Liverpool – Everton Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

Of the last 25 meetings in the Premier League, Liverpool have lost only one against Everton. Nevertheless, the head-to-head doesn’t swing so clearly in the Reds’ direction, as 13 of the other 24 matches ended in draws, meaning LFC could only celebrate eleven victories in the given period.

At home, however, the Klopp team’s record reads a bit better. Liverpool have won seven of their last ten PL home games against Everton. In 2021/22 and 2022/23, the teams were both victorious 2:0. Gylfi Sigurdsson and Richarlison were responsible for the last two Toffee goals at Anfield in early 2021. Both are long gone from the pitch for the Blues.

Liverpool – Everton tip

May 2021 was the last time Everton won two Premier League away games in a row. On Saturday lunchtime, the Toffees will get another opportunity to do so. However, looking at the Liverpool vs Everton betting odds, it quickly becomes clear that even a simple point win for the Blues would be a major surprise coup. A commanding home victory for Klopp’s team is far more expected.

However, to use the term “sovereignty” in connection with LFC requires a certain risk, because despite a decent haul of five wins after eight matchdays so far, the Reds have had to fight with themselves and some opposition in all matches. Only once was keeper Alisson Becker able to keep his box clean. In the first halves alone, Liverpool have conceded seven of the nine goals they’ve conceded.

In addition, it should not be underestimated that the Toffees have recently won two out of three Premier League games and have therefore been able to extricate themselves somewhat from their misery. They have the potential to cause problems for their city rivals once again. However, at least one goal of their own should be within the realm of possibility for the guests. We therefore play between Liverpool and Everton the tip on the 1X & Both hit on.