Who will keep the connection to the front places?
Both Rakow Czestochowa and Sturm Graz started the UEFA Europa League Group D with a defeat. However, given their prominent group opponents Atalanta Bergamo and Sporting Lisbon, most experts assumed that this Polish-Austrian clash would only decide who would finish third in the Conference League knockout rounds. According to the bookmakers, the home side is more likely to win the match between Rakow Czestochowa and Sturm Graz
In principle, the Poles bring a certain home strength with them. Rakow have lost only one of their last ten home games in all European competitions (seven wins, two draws), while the visitors from Styria have not won in eight away games in the Europa League (two draws, six defeats). Basically, the betting on Rakow Czestochowa against Sturm Graz is therefore leaning towards the home team.
Rakow also recorded a 3-0 home win in the Ekstraklasa in their dress rehearsal on Sunday. However, Sturm Graz are also doing well at national level and are the only team still completely unbeaten in the Bundesliga (six wins, three draws). Accordingly, it would be risky to use the three-way system in this match.
It is striking that the Austrians have always scored in their last nine matches. In Silesia, too, the Styrians are definitely capable of scoring an away goal. The best value for us is the bet that both teams will score in this Polish-Austrian duel.
Rakow Czestochowa – Statistics & current form
The rise of Rakow Czestochowa, founded back in 1921, began just under ten years ago when entrepreneur Michal Swierczewski bought the then third-tier club and, with sustained investment, not only led them back to the Ekstraklasa, but even to their first national championship win this summer.
After winning the Polish Cup twice in the last two years and becoming runners-up, the Red and Blues were also allowed to compete in the Champions League qualifiers for the first time this year. However, they lost out there against FC Copenhagen.
The highest Expected-Goals-Against value of any team in the competition
However, at least the Silesians remained in the group stage of the Europa League, where a class difference was revealed on the first matchday at Atalanta Bergamo. The Poles fired just three shots – the lowest of all participants in the Europa League preliminary round.
On the other hand, no other team in the competition conceded as many shots (29) and had such a high Expected-Goals-Against value as the red and blue (3.93), who were ultimately well served by their 2-0 defeat in Lombardy.
Only lost one of the last ten European home games
Despite this, the odds are now swinging in the direction of Dawid Szwarga’s side against Sturm Graz at Rakow Czestochowa, largely due to the Silesians’ home strength. The Red and Blues have lost only one of their last ten European home games (seven wins, two draws).
That defeat, however, was the last game in the Champions League qualifiers against FC Copenhagen (0:1). In the league, on the other hand, everything was back to normal after the 4-1 defeat against Lech Poznan. Rakow celebrated a successful dress rehearsal with a 3-0 win against Radomiak on Sunday and are now hoping to carry the momentum into the Europa League.
Predicted line-up of Rakow Czestochowa:
Rakow Czestochowa (Expected line-up) 3-4-2-1
Sturm Graz – Statistics & current form
SK Sturm Graz have won the national championship in Austria three times in the club’s history so far and secured the cup victory for the sixth time this summer, for which Rapid Wien were beaten 2-0 in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.
The Schwoazn have also shown their mettle on the international stage on several occasions, making three appearances in the Champions League to date and twice reaching the quarter-finals of a European competition in 1976 (European Cup Winners’ Cup) and 1984 (UEFA Cup).
Winless in eight away games in the Europa League
Nevertheless, the Styrian club hasn’t done too well in the Europa League lately. Especially away from home, Sturm Graz have not won any of their last eight matches in the second most important European competition for club teams (two draws, six defeats).
On top of that, there was also a home defeat on the first matchday, when a 1:0 lead against Sporting Lisbon could not be carried over time (final score: 1:2). Rakow Czestochowa’s betting on an away win for the Austrian cup winners in Silesia against Sturm Graz is correspondingly ill-starred.
Always scored in 13 of 14 competitive games in 2023/24 season
However, Christian Ilzer’s side can at least be expected to score at the Polish champions. Not only has Sturm Graz always scored in 13 of the 14 competitive matches played in the 2023/24 season – including the last nine competitive matches in a row. But the Styrians have also gathered a lot of momentum at national level.
The reigning cup winners are currently the only unbeaten team in the Bundesliga and, with a tally of 21 points out of a possible 27, are also within one point of serial champions Red Bull Salzburg.
Predicted line-up of Sturm Graz:
Sturm Graz (Expected line-up) 4-3-1-2
Rakow Czestochowa – Sturm Graz Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Never before there has been an international match between both teams. Neither have the Poles ever played against an Austrian club before, nor have the Grazers ever faced a team from the Ekstraklasa. Accordingly, there is no “head to head” data available that could affect the forecast for Rakow Czestochowa vs Sturm Graz.
Rakow Czestochowa – Sturm Graz Tip
In principle, the Polish hosts are probably to be seen in the role of favourites, which is based, among other things, on the fact that Rakow Czestochowa have lost only one of their last ten European home games (seven wins, two draws). This contrasts with a drought on foreign soil on the part of the Austrians, who have not won any of their last eight away Europa League matches (two draws, six defeats).
However, the guests from Styria can at least be expected to score the away goal in Silesia. On the one hand, the Schwoazn have always scored at least once in their 13 of their 14 competitive matches in the 2023/24 season and, on the other hand, the Poles had an Expected-Goals-Against value of 3.93 on the first matchday – the highest value of all teams playing in the Europa League.
