Bayern seek revenge in top match
It is without doubt the duel of superlatives! The absolute top match on the coming Bundesliga weekend! An eagerly awaited clash between the cup winners and the champions and at the same time the meeting of the two teams that have won the last seven (!) titles at national level. The whole of footballing Germany is electrified and looking forward to the summit of the giants, which kicks off on Saturday evening at 18:30 in the Red Bull Arena.
In terms of the standings, the clash also holds a lot of explosiveness, after all, the fourth-placed team meets the leader. In addition, there is of course the desire for revenge on the part of the Munich team, who lost the Supercup final against the central city team 3-0 in August and also almost lost the championship in the last league match to date with a 3-1 home defeat.
The record champions are therefore driven by the ambition to show who is still the number one in the country in a direct duel. This, in turn, must be taken into account with regard to the RB Leipzig vs. Bayern tip, because as we know, the stars from Säbener Straße are even stronger when they are on edge.
The recent results underline the fact that coach Marco Rose’s team does not have to hide. The Saxons have won six competitive games in a row, which means they are going into this match with a broad chest.
As, incidentally, does the fact that RBL could become the second team this millennium, after Werder Bremen in 2006, to beat the FCB three times in one calendar year. Although it takes some courage to make a prediction between RB Leipzig and Bayern against the serial champions, we see the two teams as being on a par in their current form!
RB Leipzig – statistics & current form
Despite the personnel upheaval in the summer, which was accompanied by important departures of Konny Laimer, Chris Nkunku or Joskvo Gvardiol, and in the context of which some promising youngsters had to be newly integrated, the first interim conclusion at RB Leipzig is very positive.
After the 3-2 defeat in Leverkusen on the first matchday, the central city team celebrated a total of six victories in a row in three different competitions. In five of these six victories, they scored at least three goals of their own, which is an impressive indication that the newly formed attack has quickly found its feet.
Led by top talent Xavi Simons, Leipzig currently have the fourth-best attack in the league, which has only failed to score at least twice once this season. In six of seven matches in the current season with RBL participation, a bet on the over 2.5 would have paid off. It is quite possible that the top match on Saturday evening will also offer some spectacle. In any case, we would take a closer look at the odds between RB Leipzig and Bayern for 3+ goals in the course of the game or/and goals from both teams.
Does young blood help in the defence?
To outline the chances of the fourth-placed team in the table, it is worth taking a look at a very interesting statistic. In the still young 2023/24 season, the Saxons have already met a current league leader twice and were able to win both of these games clearly against VfB Stuttgart (5:1) and at Union Berlin (3:0). In general, nine victories in the last ten Bundesliga games are proof of the exceptional position of the cup winners, who, as mentioned, also won the two most recent competitive games against Bayern.
It has to be said, however, that the defence is a question mark at the moment. Defender Willi Orban is absent due to injury, so that the 20-year-old summer newcomer Castello Lukeba will probably once again start in central defence alongside Mohamed Simakan.
The youngster doesn’t really have international experience at the highest level, so it will be exciting to see how the France U international does against Harry Kane and Co. During the week in the DFB Cup, the RBL defence already showed deficits against the second-division team SV Wehen-Wiesbaden (3:2); in the league, on the other hand, it has kept zero three times in a row. If you still want to bet on a Munich win in view of this personnel situation, Interwetten offers odds of no more than 1.97 on an away win between RB Leipzig and Bayern.
Predicted line-up of RB Leipzig:
RB Leipzig (Expected line-up) 4-4-2
Bayern – Statistics & current form
FC Bayern are currently marching through the German top flight in their usual manner. With 13 points after the first five games, the record champions lead the standings thanks to a terrific goal difference of 18:4. The fact that the Munich team is once again the most dangerous offensive team in the league is thanks to the 7-0 win against VfL Bochum the previous week.
During the week, Tuchel’s team also did their homework in the DFB Cup in Münster (4:0). However, the success at the third division club was marred by the injury to Serge Gnabry, who broke his forearm and will be out for the next few weeks.
Coach Tuchel has repeatedly mentioned that the squad is too thin and will therefore reach its limits. Especially in the defence, where Goretzka and Mazraoui recently formed the curious centre-back pairing due to a lack of alternatives. For the upcoming top match in the East, however, at least Kim and Upamecano should be available again.
Do Bayern need three goals of their own again to win?
But in any case, Bayern’s preferred approach in the first few weeks of the season seems to be to win matches via a hungry attack. In fact, a bet on the over 2.5 would have gone through in all eight of the FCB’s competitive matches so far, and in six cases at least four goals were scored. Especially the matches against top-class opponents such as Manchester United (4:3) or Leverkusen (2:2) can be seen as a blueprint in this respect and provide a veritable argument to push the prediction on over-goals in the duel RB Leipzig against Bayern.
At the same time, however, it became clear in the aforementioned matches that not all that glitters is gold for the subscription champions. The defence is fragile, Kimmich and Co. are still losing too many balls in midfield and, on top of that, the first real away test now awaits.
So what is needed at best is a Harry Kane in top form. The England captain is the first Bayern player ever to score seven goals in his first five Bundesliga games and already has ten (!) assists to his name.
Predicted Bayern line-up:
Bayern Munich (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1
RB Leipzig – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H balance
The direct comparison of the two most successful German football clubs in recent years makes curious reading. As already mentioned, Leipzig won their most recent two competitive matches in the Supercup (3:0) and on the 33rd matchday of the pre-season (3:1), but in the previous 16 encounters they celebrated only one three-pointer (six draws, nine defeats). In the past four Bundesliga matches, both teams have scored goals. On average, exactly four goals have been scored in each match.
RB Leipzig – Bayern Tip
Once Thomas Tuchel and Marco Rose worked together at FSV Mainz 05, Rose attested to Tuchel, who had just been promoted to the head coach position, for a fortnight before they parted ways again as planned. The next eagerly awaited reunion will take place on Saturday evening. The most recent two coaching duels went to Rose, by the way, who has thus been able to bring the record champions to their knees in a competitive match more often than any other coach since the start of the 2019/20 season.
It does not seem out of the question that such a scenario will be repeated next weekend in the 6th BL matchday. The Bullen have won all of their last six competitive matches and have been extremely convincing, especially offensively. The FCB, however, is in no way inferior to the central cities and is even still unbeaten throughout the entire season. We therefore deliberately refrain from betting on the three-way market between RB Leipzig and Bayern.
What we can imagine in any case, however, is a point win for the home side, who will have to get a grip on Harry Kane and Leroy Sané in particular. However, because the Munich defence has also shown weaknesses against good teams so far, we see an attractive value in the betting odds on the double chance 1X in the clash between RB Leipzig and Bayern, as well as in the odds for an overbet with both teams scoring.
