Will BVB jump to first place for one night?
The name Maximilian Beier is on everyone’s lips at the moment. After the 20-year-old TSG Hoffenheim attacker was initially allowed to gain his first experience in the Regionalliga reserves and finally performed well in pre-season on loan at Hannover 96, Beier is now a regular in the Bundesliga.
In the last four league games, the top talent has always scored at least one goal, so that a possible nomination for the German national team is currently being hotly discussed. On Friday evening, Beier will be able to prove his ability and, above all, his impressive form against the reigning runners-up.
The opening match of matchday 6 in the German top flight will be the eagerly awaited top match between Hoffenheim and Dortmund. Predicting the outcome of the match is rather complicated, because while the home side from the Rhine-Neckar region has won four matches in a row, BVB is one of the four remaining teams that has gone through the Bundesliga season unbeaten so far.
It would be presumptuous, however, to conclude from this that the Black-Yellow team are the favourites. In terms of football, the Kraichgauer have been more convincing in recent weeks than Borussia, who will also have their Champions League home game against AC Milan (subconsciously) in the back of their minds again next Wednesday.
Although BVB have regularly delivered good results against TSG in the recent past, betting on an away win between Hoffenheim and Dortmund on Friday night involves some risks.
However, it is also clear that the winner of the direct duel will climb to the top of the table at least for one night. On Saturday, the other teams can finally follow suit.
Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form
In the 2022/23 pre-season, TSG Hoffenheim recorded a meagre five wins in the first leg. Currently, the Sinsheim side have four trebles after just five matchdays and have thus made the best start in their Bundesliga history. After a 2-1 home defeat to SC Freiburg at the beginning of the season, the Kraichgauer have celebrated four wins in a row and have moved up to fifth place in the standings.
If the prediction of a home win in Hoffenheim’s clash against Dortmund on Friday evening proves to be correct, the fifth successive BL victory would even set the club’s own record in the German top flight. There will definitely be no lack of self-confidence in view of the very concentrated performances in last weekend’s 2-0 win over Union Berlin at the Alte Försterei and the 3-1 win in Cologne. The form is terrific and the belief in their own strength more glaring than it has been for a long time.
Hoffenheim have shone frequently of late with early goals
The prominent attack in particular has attracted attention in recent weeks. In the course of the continuing winning streak, the Blue and Whites have always scored at least two goals of their own. In total, they have scored eleven goals in the last four matches, which means an average of almost three goals per match. In addition to the aforementioned Maximilian Beier, who has scored four goals this season and needed only five shots on goal to do so, Andrej Kramaric, who plays a somewhat different role, has also made three appearances in the goal-scoring charts.
Another statistical conspicuity relates to the number of goals scored in the first 45 minutes. Against Cologne and Union Berlin, TSG already led 2:0 at the break. In total, a bet on the over 1.5 in the first half would have gone through in four out of five cases.
In three of the aforementioned five matches, the over 3.5 would also have paid off after 90 minutes, so we are not averse to considering odds on both teams scoring in the first half between Hoffenheim and Dortmund on the one hand. On the other hand, four or more goals in the complete course of the match also seem anything but unrealistic. Under normal circumstances, both the fifth and sixth-placed teams have their strengths on the offensive.
Predicted line-up of Hoffenheim:
Hoffenheim (Expected line-up) 3-4-1-2
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
If you look at the basic mood at Borussia Dortmund these days, few would probably guess that the reigning runners-up have started a Bundesliga season with five unbeaten matches for the first time since 2018/19. In terms of results, the record reads very respectable with three wins and two draws, but the way Edin Terzic’s team is currently performing continues to cause displeasure, disillusionment and unrest.
Despite the fact that the Black and Yellows have not lost any of their last 13 league games and have collected 16 points from their last six direct encounters against TSG (five wins, one draw), the odds on the visitors’ treble between Hoffenheim and Dortmund do not find a place in our top betting table. On the one hand, there is no value to be seen at 2.15 in the top on the aforementioned away win, and on the other hand, a significant improvement is needed in almost all respects compared to previous performances.
Do we need the experience of Marco Reus again?
Although Borussia picked up maximum points on the past two weekends, it took a lot of match luck on both occasions. The team still makes an impression that it is not one hundred percent trained, many key players are lagging behind their form, and the top-class striker trio has not scored any goals in the Bundesliga to date. Neither Haller, nor newcomer Füllkrug or top talent Moukoko were allowed to score in the first five match days.
However, since we expect an improvement in this respect and are only waiting for the BVB attackers to break the knot, a high-scoring encounter on Friday evening seems to be within the realm of possibility. Including the cup, both teams have scored in all three of the Black and Yellows’ domestic away games so far. In both Bundesliga games away from home, Borussia was trailing at times.
With regard to the aforementioned crisis of the BVB strikers, oldie Marco Reus could once again become the X-factor. In the last two Bundesliga games, the 34-year-old turned out to be the most important source of ideas and goal scorer. In the 1-0 win the previous week, Reus scored the 1-0 goal for the 62nd time (!) in his career. Only four players have achieved this feat more often. Should the ex-captain also open the scoring in the PreZero Arena, this would bring very attractive odds of up to 11.00 between Hoffenheim and Dortmund!
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Borussia Dortmund (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1
Hoffenheim – Dortmund Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Hoffenheim and Dortmund will play their 31st match in the Bundesliga on the next matchday. BVB have celebrated 13 victories so far, ten encounters have ended in draws, while the Kraichgauers have lost out quite clearly with only seven victories. The Black and Yellows have also won five of the last six league encounters, but have only won three of the last ten matches in Sinsheim. All the more reason to take a closer look at the bet on the double chance 1X.
Hoffenheim – Dortmund Tip
Away games in Sinsheim have been an immensely tough place for Borussia Dortmund over many years. In their joint Bundesliga history, the Black and Yellows have celebrated just five wins in 15 attempts at TSG. Three of those five victories, however, have come in their most recent three away appearances at the Blue-Whites, who have generally been waiting for a three-goal win over the reigning runners-up for six direct duels.
For Friday night’s reunion between Hoffenheim and Dortmund, we are also holding back on betting on the outcome of the match. However, if we evaluate the odds on offer and put them in the light of recent impressions, it might be the wiser approach to play the double chance 1X and thus speculate on a point win for the fifth-placed team in the table, which has recently won four times in a row.
Apart from that, we can well imagine that a goal or two will be scored. Although the visitors from Westphalia have not covered themselves in glory offensively so far, it seems to be only a matter of time before the BVB strikers score for the first time this season.
Both teams pursue an attacking style of play and certainly have their strengths in playing with the ball. In the Hoffenheim vs. Dortmund match, the betting odds on the over 3.5 are therefore also of interest. Five units are available for betting purposes.
