Will VfL improve their poor BVB record?
Julian Nagelsmann will be the new coach of the German national football team and is expected to lead the 2014 World Champions to the home European Championship in 2024.
Borussia Dortmund coach Edin Terzic may also have taken a deep breath, because after BVB’s disappointing performances at the beginning of this season, the name “Nagelsmann” hovered over Signal Iduna Park like a sword of Damocles. Admittedly, however, without any factual basis.
Anyway, the Black and Yellows redeemed themselves impressively in the Bundesliga last weekend with a 4:2 win in Freiburg. During the week, however, they suffered a deserved 2-0 defeat at Paris St. Germain. Perhaps with a little fatigue in their legs, Borussia will now face the in-form Wolves. The Dortmund vs. Wolfsburg tip on a home win will therefore by no means be a foregone conclusion.
Strictly speaking, in view of the (much) too low odds, we should even refrain from making a prediction in the direction of the reigning runners-up between Dortmund and Wolfsburg. Value is definitely not discernible, even though BVB has an impressive record against VfL and has won nine of the past ten Bundesliga encounters. Looking at the current form curves, however, the risk outweighs the reward.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Even before the whistle blew for PSG’s match against Dortmund at the Prinzenpark in Paris on Tuesday evening, Edin Terzic caused a sensation. In fact, the coach benched all three of his nominal top players and started with Malen and Adeyemi instead of Haller, Füllkrug or Moukoko. Süle, Hummels and Schlotterbeck formed the back three. Marco Reus, who scored his 115th Bundesliga goal for Borussia the previous week and equalled Lothar Emmerich, once again had to settle for the role of joker, but at least livened up the game after his substitution.
The idea behind the change of system was self-explanatory, but in the first half Schwarz-Gelb did not get into the desired transition situations, as winning the ball usually resulted in a quick loss of the ball. After a controversial penalty and a great run by ex-Dortmund player Hakimi, BVB finally fell behind after the break and in the end left the pitch as losers, completely deserved. Doubts about coach Terzic may have increased once again as a result.
Will BVB continue to be overrated by the bookmakers?
The upcoming Bundesliga match on Saturday afternoon therefore has a trend-setting significance from various perspectives. On the one hand, it is a question of whether the Ballspielverein can remain unbeaten in their fifth league match of the season and, with their third success, close the gap to the top of the table. On the other hand, however, the way Emre Can and Co. perform in front of the home crowd against the Wolves will also play a part in the assessment.
The fact is that there are still many open areas in Borussia’s game. On the offensive side, Schwarz-Gelb is still waiting for its first striker’s goal, defensively the question arises again whether it will come down to a three-man or a four-man defence, and the fitness level of the team also seems to be causing the coaching team headaches. Not good conditions to end the first English week of the new season with a win.
Although BVB have lost just one of their 23 BL matches this calendar year (16 wins, six draws), have won their last five home league matches against their upcoming opponents from the Autostadt and have scored at least one goal in 53 consecutive BL matches in front of their own fans, it is not our preferred approach to play the less profitable odds on a home win between Dortmund and Wolfsburg.
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Borussia Dortmund (Expected line-up) 4-3-3
Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form
VfL Wolfsburg have made the second best start in their own Bundesliga history. Only once – in 2020/21 with twelve points from four games – had the Wolves started a season better than currently. With nine points, the Green-Whites are currently one place (6th) ahead of Borussia Dortmund (7th). Their chest should be particularly broad after the 2-1 victory at home against Union Berlin the previous week.
Once again, the Danish faction around Jonas Wind and Joakim Maehle came to the fore in the victory against the CL representatives from the capital. Wind gave his team a 1:0 lead and was directly involved in six of VfL’s seven goals so far this season (five goals, one assist). After a 1-1 draw, newcomer Maehle finally scored the winning goal.
Wolfsburg finally want to prove themselves against the top teams
The Autostädtern, who have strengthened themselves very conscientiously in the summer and are certainly aiming for a return to international business this season, can therefore be attested a really solid constitution.
It will be interesting to see whether the Lower Saxons, after the 1:3 away defeat at TSG Hoffenheim in their last away game to date, can show a better performance away from home this time and perhaps even pull off a surprise at Signal Iduna Park. In any case, we believe that the odds of 2.18 on the double X2 chance between Dortmund and Wolfsburg offer more value than the lower top odds on a home win.
Only Niko Kovac’s poor record against his brother Robert’s former club could put a spanner in the VfL’s works. Kovac has lost six of his eleven games as coach against BVB. The former professional will also have fond memories of his most recent trip to the Dortmund football temple. His Wolfsburg side lost 6-0 there in May 2023, the highest defeat of Niko Kovac’s coaching career.
Predicted Wolfsburg line-up:
VfL Wolfsburg (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1
Dortmund – Wolfsburg Direct comparison / H2H balance
Nine of the last ten Bundesliga matches between these clubs went to BVB. In general, Dortmund have conceded only one defeat against VfL (14 wins, one draw) in their past 16 matches in the German top flight.
At Signal Iduna Park, the visitors’ record reads even more disastrous. They recently lost five matches in a row, conceding a whopping 19 (!) goals and scoring only one themselves. Perhaps it makes more sense not to focus on the outcome of the match with the main tip.
Dortmund – Wolfsburg Tip
With Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg, two table neighbours face each other in a direct duel on Saturday afternoon. Although the Wolves, in sixth place, have one more point on their account, BVB is one of only four Bundesliga teams still unbeaten. Two victories are offset by two draws. However, the team of coach Edin Terzic has not really been able to convince so far.
Against this backdrop, there are also some residual doubts that advise us not to play the too low betting odds on a home win between Dortmund and Wolfsburg. Instead, it seems anything but far-fetched that the Autostädter will return from the Ruhrpott with at least a point and thus bring something tangible back from the Signal Iduna Pak for the first time after five away defeats in a row (1:19 goals).
But given the fact that Borussia have so far revealed physical deficits and conceded a number of second-half goals, most notably in the 2-2 draw at home to Heidenheim, our main bet is on the number of goals after the break. Partly because of the double-header, we expect a bet on at least two goals in the second half to pay off between Dortmund and Wolfsburg.
