Will Bilbao storm the Mendizorroza fortress?

The sixth matchday in the Spanish football top flight opens with a local derby and closes with a prestigious city derby. The kick-off takes place in the Basque Country, more precisely in the province of Alava. The Mendizorroza Stadium in Vitoria Gasteiz will host the clash between Deportivo Alaves and Athletic Bilbao on Friday evening from 9 pm. The betting odds in favour of the home side are quite attractive, with a factor of up to 3.60. The home side has won both of its home games. The hosts have won both home games so far this season. Can they do the same in the derby?

Doubts about the answer to this question are absolutely justified, because the neighbours from Bilbao present themselves in excellent shape. In the last four league games, Ernesto Valverde’s side have picked up ten points out of a possible twelve and have thus established themselves at the top of the league. The home strength of the blue and whites from Alaves is certainly not to be swept under the table, but given Bilbao’s very strong form and better quality squad, an Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao prediction on the visitors in this weekend’s LaLiga opener seems realistic.

Alaves – Statistics & current form

After a completely disappointing 2021/22 season, immediate promotion was the big goal. An advantage for the Basques was certainly the fact that the team, as the bottom team, was able to start planning for LaLiga2 early on. After 42 match days, fourth place was achieved and via the diversions of the promotion play-offs, the team under head coach Luis Garcia was able to make the big season goal a reality.

Flawless at home – without points away from home

Back in the Spanish football top flight, staying in the league is the top priority. They are pinning a lot of hope on their home strength, which has been the hallmark of Alaves since Luis Garcia took over. Last season, only UD Levante celebrated a victory at the Mendizorroza Stadium during the regular season. In total, 14 of the 23 league home games were won (eight draws).

The promoted team has also confirmed this strength in the first two home games this season. A spectacular 4:3 against Sevilla FC was followed by a 1:0 win against Valencia. Two teams that are undoubtedly much higher ranked than Alaves. On the other hand, the promoted team has been a welcome guest away from home so far, as not only have they lost three games, but they have also failed to score a goal away from home.

Alaves will have to do without Giuliano Simeone, the son of Atletico head coach Diego, on Friday evening due to injury. Otherwise, at least the entire squad will be available. Nevertheless, a difference in quality cannot be denied, in this respect the belief that the tip on another home victory will also be successful in the home match of Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao is lacking.

Predicted line-up of Alaves:

Deportivo Alaves (Expected line-up) 4-3-3

Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form

The tradition-conscious Basques have finished eighth in the table twice in a row, narrowly missing out on a return to the international stage on each occasion. The decisive factor last year was the weak finish, as only one of the last eight league games was won. For the club’s management, however, this is no reason to question everything and the new season will be contested with virtually the same personnel. The only pain was the departure of veteran Inigo Martinez on a free transfer to the great FC Barcelona.

Four games – ten points

At the start of the season, Athletic Bilbao conceded a 2-0 defeat, but with Real Madrid as their opponents, the defeat against Bellingham & Co was manageable. Especially since this is the only defeat of the season so far. In recent weeks, Valverde’s team has been at its best, taking ten points from a possible twelve in their last four league games. Bilbao’s only loss of points came in a goalless draw in Mallorca. The games against Osasuna, Betis Sevilla and FC Cadiz were all won.

What is striking this season is that Bilbao are much stronger offensively. Nine goals have been scored in these four games. In the previous year, Bilbao scored only 47 goals in 38 league games and went a full 16 times without a goal of their own. However, the offensive power was mainly at the San Mames Stadium, as seven of the nine goals were scored there. In the two away games so far, betting on the under 2.5 was the right choice in each case. In the derby against Alaves, Bilbao now plays a team that is very destructive and avoids almost any risk. Therefore, the low Alaves and Bilbao odds for under 2.5 are understandable.

On the Bilbao side, there is only one painful absence – Spanish international Nico Williams will not be able to play because of a muscle injury.

Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:

Athletic Bilbao (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1

Alaves – Athletic Bilbao Direct comparison / H2H balance

The direct comparison between the two teams is a clear argument why betting on the visitors is favoured in the clash between Alaves and Athletic Bilbao. This clash has taken place a total of 34 times in the Spanish top flight, with Bilbao winning no fewer than 21 games. Alaves, on the other hand, has only won six. A small glimmer of hope might be that Alaves celebrated five of the six historic victories against Bilbao at home. Last season, only veteran Raul Garcia scored at home in favour of Bilbao. The clash at Alaves’ Mendizorroza Stadium ended goalless.

Alaves – Athletic Bilbao Tip

A look at the database not only underlines the favouritism in favour of the current fourth in the table, but is also a clear indication that our Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao prediction on few goals is promising. In the last four LaLiga duels, both teams have only scored a single goal each (one 1-0 win each and two goalless draws). A 1.68 for the bet that a maximum of one side may cheer therefore seems very tempting.

We recommend betting on the away win between Alaves and Athletic Bilbao as the main bet. A bet that certainly carries some risk, as the visitors have not won in this derby since 2015/16. In addition, the two Alaves home wins this season should not be ignored. However, Athletic Bilbao have far more quality in their own ranks and also have a great deal of self-confidence after their recent results. In this respect, there is value to be found in the current betting odds, which we are playing with a stake of five units.