Will Bogdanovic and SGA shoot out the lights in the direct duel?
Two European and two North American national teams have made it to the semifinals of the 2023 Basketball World Cup. In both matches of the preliminary round there will be intercontinental duels. The first match will be between Serbia and Canada on Friday morning. The bet on the Europeans will be offered higher odds, although the lopsidedness in the odds distribution is limited.
The fact that the odds have converged somewhat in the duel between Serbia and Canada is primarily due to the performances shown in the quarter-final matches. While the Serbians delivered their best tournament performance so far against the previously unbeaten Lithuanians, the Canadians needed an improved second half against Luka Doncic and his Slovenians to reach this semifinal.
We now face a clash of relatively stark contrasts. While the Serbian national team stands for a lot of ball movement and a good balance of inside and outside play in the old Yugoslavian school, the Canadians counter with tremendous individual quality.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. are always looking for the 1 vs. 1 situations, create for themselves or go with full conviction towards the basket. Due to the athletic advantages of the North Americans, the role of favorite is certainly understandable. However, a surprise by no means seems out of the question…
Serbia – statistics & current form
The fact that the highly decorated Serbian national team made it to the semifinals of this World Cup in Asia can already be considered a complete success. On the one hand, because some experts did not expect so much from the “White Eagles” after the disappointing European Championship last year (9th place) and due to the painful absences of Jokic, Lucic or Kalinic. On the other hand, because of the bumpy intermediate round that the team of the old coaching fox Svetislav Pesic put on the floor.
After the 76-78 defeat against Italy, in which the Serbs squandered a lead of 16 (!) points from the middle of the third quarter, the Eastern Europeans were under pressure against the Dominican Republic, but mastered the obligatory task very confidently with 112-78 – just like the quarterfinal mission against Lithuania. The match was already decided in favor of the Serbs after three quarters. In the end, it was a 19-point lead against the previously undefeated Balts.
Serbia handed out the most assists during the tournament
With the confidence from their recent two victories and considering the impressive form of NBA star Bogdan Bogdanovic, who scored 21 points again against Lithuania and is one of the best remaining scorers in this tournament with an average of 18.8 points, the runners-up of the 2014 World Cup can be expected to do a lot again against Canada.
Especially if the offense continues to work so well. With 98.2 points, the Pesic team represents the second-best offensive team of this World Cup. In three of six games, the magic 100 mark was cracked. No other World Cup participant hits higher percentages from the two-point range than the Serbs with their dominant center Milutinov, who even looked good against Jonas Valanciunas and could now also pose problems for the Canadian “big men”.
If Bogandovic, Guduric, Milutinov and Co. find their rhythm again early on Friday and if they can also rely on role players like Stefan Jovic, Nikola Jovic or Petrusev, there are many indications that we will see another high-scoring match. It is quite possible that the odds of over 175.5 points between Serbia and Canada will come true.
Canada – Statistics & current form
It sounds almost grotesque, but in fact the Canadian national basketball team has reached the semifinals of a World Championship for the first time. If we look at the odds for overall victory at the major event in Indonesia, Japan and the Philippines before the Serbia vs. Canada semifinal, the team of Spanish coach Jordi Fernandez, who works as an assistant coach in the NBA for the Sacramento Kings, is actually given the second-best chances of the title coup behind the USA.
The North Americans have worked hard to earn this role as favorites in the tournament so far. With the exception of an absolutely avoidable defeat to Brazil, they have won all their matches. Among other things, the tough tests against Spain (88:85) and in the quarterfinals against Slovenia (100:89) were successfully mastered.
Who should stop Gilgeous-Alexander?
The team is led by NBA superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who leads this tournament in points per game after the retirement of Luka Doncic. The point guard is averaging 25 points in exactly 30 minutes of play. Against Slovenia, he finished with 31 points, ten rebounds and four assists. Since the Serbians have a much slower point guard in Stefan Jovic, the underdog will be forced to switch many matchups against SGA. This, in turn, could lead to many free throws and easy points for his teammates.
In general, the offense of the Canadians, whose bulk is signed in the best basketball league in the world, the NBA, is also beyond reproach. The North Americans are hitting their threes at a high percentage, also scoring 96.2 points per game and committing relatively few ball losses. Fernandez’s charges have also scored in triple figures in three of their six tournament games, so it would be almost negligent not to predict an over game between Serbia and Canada.
Serbia – Canada Direct Comparison / H2H Record
In review of the past 15 years, there have only been two head-to-head duels between these basketball nations. In 2010, Canada prevailed 62-58 in a preparatory tournament in Greece. In 2014, Serbia prevailed 78-73 in a friendly match. In other words, the head-to-head has no relevance to the upcoming match and does not influence the Serbia vs. Canada prediction in the slightest.
Serbia vs. Canada prediction
The Serbian national basketball team has already fixed the first partial success. Just like the German team, they have secured the ticket for the 2024 Olympic tournament in Paris. But that is not the end of the story. The Serbians want to make it to the World Cup finals, but they have a big challenge to overcome in the semifinals.
This also becomes clear when looking at the Serbia vs. Canada betting odds. The Europeans are considered underdogs and will have to outgrow themselves against the Canadian team, which has a top-class individual roster and is primarily made up of NBA players, and will certainly have to score at a high percentage from the outside to have any chance at all. But the Pesic team is certainly capable of doing so, especially if it performs as well as it did in the quarterfinals against Lithuania.
Because it is too risky for us to place a two-way bet on the North Americans and because the odds are too low, we will use the handicap, which brings a 1.70 at Interwetten if the favorites win by at least four points.
