Will top talent Rune pass his first real test of maturity?
The changing of the guard at the top of the tennis world is gradually progressing. However, it is not necessarily the generation around Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev or Andrey Rublev that is making up for the absence of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer or Andy Murray, but instead the heirs to the throne. We are talking about the youngsters around world number one Carlos Alcaraz, who have everything it takes to dominate the scene for the next decade.
In this context, Holger Rune must certainly also be mentioned. The 20-year-old Dane has also already played his way up to number six in the world rankings and is now looking to reach the quarter-finals of a Grand Slam at the 2023 French Open for the second time in his fledgling career.
In any case, ahead of Monday afternoon’s encounter between Rune and Cerundolo, a successful tip on the talented Northern European is considered more likely. On the two-way market, a maximum of 1.38 is offered on the victory of the extroverted right-hander.
The top ten player should by no means take his round of 16 match lightly, however, because a real clay court specialist awaits him in Francisco Cerundolo, who most recently managed to knock Taylor Fritz out of the competition in the third round and proved his impressive potential in the process.
Because the Argentine is also scratching the top 20 in the rankings and has a very concentrated baseline game with few errors, we dare to predict before the Rune vs. Cerundolo duel that we are in for a long match that could well go the full distance, i.e. over five sets.
Holger Rune – Statistics & current form
On the tour, Holger Rune is considered one of the most unpopular players despite his young age. Not once has it happened that the 1.88 metre tall right-hander from Gentofte in Denmark got into an argument with an opponent, spectator or referee on the court.
Sometimes the youngster is even accused of a certain arrogance. Nevertheless, it could be exactly this extravagance and the enormously pronounced self-confidence in combination with indispensable ambition that has already washed Rune up to position six in the world rankings.
Holger Rune also fights against his bad reputation
The 2023 tennis year is going according to plan for the Dane so far. His bottom line is 31 wins in 41 matches. Even more impressive, however, is his record on clay, where he has lost just three of his 20 matches. Rune won the tournament in Munich and also reached the finals of the Masters in Monaco and Rome. Among others, the 20-year-old has already beaten Medvedev, Ruud, Sinner, Djokovic and Thiem on clay this season.
It is therefore hardly surprising that after reaching the last 16 at the Australian Open 2023, he has now also made it to the second week in Paris. For the second time in his career after 2022, the quarter-finals now beckon. To justify the odds on the European’s success between Rune and Cerundolo, it must be mentioned that the top talent has not been on court for long so far.
In round one, Rune dropped a set against Eubanks, in round two the young man, who became Danish champion at the age of 15, benefited from a walkover against the injured Gael Monfils before underdog Olivieri was disposed of in three straight sets in round three. It will now be exciting to see how the Dane passes his first acid test. We believe the favourite will win, but we wouldn’t be surprised if he needs four or even five sets to do it.
Francisco Cerundolo – Statistics & current form
The spell has finally been broken! Although Francisco Cerundolo has already been on the tour for a few years and at the age of 24 at least no longer belongs to the “next gen”, it took until this year’s French Open before the Argentine finally managed to make it to the last 16. Until a few days ago, the right-hander had not even won a Grand Slam match on clay. Round three at the Australian Open this year was the highest of feelings for the likeable man from Buenos Aires.
Nevertheless, we are far from underestimating the 1.85 metre tall and very nimble South American. Why should we? Cerundolo has already risen to 23rd in the world rankings, and in the live rankings he is listed in the top 20 for the first time. In addition, the 24-year-old has attracted attention so far with very decent performances against good opponents in Paris.
Cerundolo brimming with confidence
The first round started with a four-set win over the uncomfortable Spaniard Jaume Munar, then Cerundolo gave German Yannik Hanfmann no chance in three sets before Taylor Fritz also felt the class of the clay court specialist in round three. The US-American won the first set, but then had to give in to the very powerful and offensive game of the Argentine. Despite 56 simple errors, the first-ever Grand Slam round of 16 was perfect.
Because Cerundolo has won nine of his last eleven clay court matches and, after initial problems this season, is now very close to his absolute top form, we definitely trust the supposed outsider to win at least one set on Monday. It would also be conceivable to take advantage of the attractive odds on a games handicap (+5.5) in the duel Rune vs.
Holger Rune – Francisco Cerundolo Direct comparison / H2H balance
2019 was the last time the two professionals faced each other in a direct duel and also the only time. Rune was still a junior at the time and therefore lost as expected to Cerundolo, who is four years older, in a small clay court challenger. However, this clash will not have any relevant influence on Monday’s Rune vs.
Holger Rune – Francisco Cerundolo Tip
It’s all about a place in the quarter-finals of the French Open! Holger Rune, who already reached the last eight at Roland Garros last year and has been on court for a much shorter time so far in the tournament, also due to the non-appearance of Gael Monfils in round two, will meet Francisco Cerundolo, who has secretly worked his way up into the world’s top 20 and calls clay the best surface.
Long story short: We expect a duel on equal terms and therefore even believe that between Rune and Cerundolo the betting odds swing a little too much in the direction of the Dane. The 20-year-old may be the better tennis player, but he tends to have mental ups and downs during a match, which makes at least another straight three-set win for the European unlikely.
Should Cerundolo reduce the number of easy errors compared to the match against Fritz, which he is quite capable of doing, we can expect a very long match that might even go over five sets. For a corresponding bet, very attractive top odds of 3.80 are provided.
Even more exciting in our eyes is a bet between Rune and Cerundolo that Holger Rune will win this match in four or five sets. At Bet365 you can bet that the world number six will come out on top with 3:1 or 3:2. The maximum odds are 2.30 and are worth a stake of five units to us.
