Will the Werkself live up to the role of favourite?
On paper alone, Bayer Leverkusen have certainly drawn one of the most feasible opponents in the quarter-finals of the Europa League. However, the Belgian upstart travels to the BayArena quite confident. The Unionistes are unbeaten in eight competitive matches (five wins, three draws) and have not lost any of their four away matches during the Europa League season in the group stage and knockout round (three wins, one draw). Nevertheless, the bookmakers favour betting on the Bundesliga side when it comes to Leverkusen vs Royale Union SG.
It should be noted that the Werkself has been in impressive form recently. The Rhinelanders have won their last seven competitive matches in a row and have always scored at least two goals of their own in all of these games. However, the 41 goals already conceded in 27 Bundesliga games also point to defensive vulnerabilities here and there, which is why Leverkusen’s prediction on the outcome of the first leg against Royale Union SG is by no means clear.
Naturally, it seems tempting to bet on a home win for the Bundesliga side, who won the UEFA Cup once before in 1988. However, the numbers certainly point to the fact that the supposed underdog from Belgium must be taken seriously. In view of the low prices, there is no value in tip 1.
Instead, we recommend betting on both teams scoring in the first leg. Not only has the Werkself been defensively vulnerable from time to time, but the Unionistes have also scored every time in their last 25 competitive matches.
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
Last summer, Bayer Leverkusen finished third in the Bundesliga’s final table, their best finish since the 2015/16 season, making the Werkself’s false start to the new season all the more incomprehensible.
However, since Xabi Alonso took over as coach in the Rhineland, things have steadily improved for the black-and-red team, who celebrated their seventh consecutive win in a competitive match at the weekend. With the 3:1 home victory over Eintracht Frankfurt, Leverkusen moved back up to sixth place in the table.
Won only two of last six Europa League home games
With only five points left to finish fourth, even the Champions League is still possible, in which the Werkself just barely finished third in the preliminary round this season. In the Europa League, it then took a penalty shoot-out against Monaco in the play-offs before things went smoothly for the first time in the round of 16 against Ferencvaros in two clear 2:0 victories.
The 2-0 home win against the Hungarians, however, was one of only two home victories among the Rhinelanders’ last six Europa League home games (one draw, three defeats). The black-and-red team’s record is correspondingly capable of improvement.
Already 41 goals conceded in 27 Bundesliga games
Despite this, the odds on Leverkusen against Royale Union SG are swinging in the direction of the Werkself, who have not only won all of their last seven competitive games, but have also consistently scored at least two goals in all seven. However, the offensive fireworks that Alonso’s team has been able to set off at times are also countered by certain defensive vulnerabilities.
In the Bundesliga, the Rhinelanders have already conceded 41 goals in 27 games. That corresponds to the most vulnerable defence in the entire top half of the table. So whether the Black-and-Red can make it to the semi-finals this time around, after their exit in the 2019/20 Europa League quarter-finals against Inter Milan, also depends on how good their defence is.
Last matches of Leverkusen:
Bundesliga
08/04/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 3 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
01/04/2023 – Schalke 04 0 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen
19/03/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 1 Bayern Munich
Europa League Final Stage
17/03/2023 – Ferencvaros 0 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
12/03/2023 – Werder Bremen 2 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen
Royal Union SG – Statistics & current form
With its founding year in 1897, the Royale Union Saint-Gilloise does have quite a bit of tradition and was able to celebrate a total of eleven national championships at the beginning of the 20th century. For much of the last 80 years, however, the Blue and Yellows no longer played a major role in Belgian football.
In 2021, however, after a 49-year absence, the Unionistes managed to return to the country’s highest division, where they promptly won the regular season as promoted teams. Only in the six games of the championship round were the upstarts caught out by Brugge.
First time through to the quarter-finals on their UEFA debut
Never the less, a return to international competition was also perfect for the blue and yellows as they finished runners-up. In their debut season in a UEFA competition – Royale Union had previously only competed in the Fairs Cup – the kickers from the communes of Saint-Gilloise and Forest, part of the Brussels-Capital Region, promptly secured group victory.
In the round of 16, the Unionistes then met 1. FC Union Berlin again, who had already been relegated to second place in the preliminary round. Karel Geraerts’ team won 6:3 after the first and second legs and is now in the quarter-finals for the first time
Have scored every time in the last 25 competitive games
Parallel to this, the Blue-Yellows are also back in the fight for the championship in the national league. With 69 points from 32 games, Royale SG are already qualified for the championship round ahead of time. Responsible for this is the very powerful offensive, which has scored without exception in the last 25 competitive games. However, in the last eleven matches, the team has only kept a clean sheet once.
This favours our bet on Leverkusen against Royale Union SG, that both teams will score in this first leg, whereby the Belgians can hope for a good starting position. After all, the Unionistes have remained unbeaten in four Europa League away games so far (three wins, one draw).
Last matches of Royale Union SG:
Jupiler Liga
09/04/2023 – KAA Gent 1 – 1 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
02/04/2023 – Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2 – 1 VV St. Truiden
20/03/2023 – Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2 – 1 KV Mechelen
Europa League Final Stage
17/03/2023 – Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 3 – 0 Union Berlin
Jupiler Liga
13/03/2023 – KRC Genk 1 – 2 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Leverkusen – Royale Union SG Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 0 – 0 – 0
There has never been a must-win match between the two teams before. Consequently, there is no “head to head” data available that could be used in the forecast for Leverkusen against Royale Union SG.
Leverkusen – Royale Union SG Tip
When it comes to Leverkusen against Royale Union SG, the betting odds do swing in the direction of the Werkself, who have won all of their last seven competitive matches. However, the runners-up from Belgium are also in good form going into this match. The Unionistes have not lost any of their four Europa League away games so far (three wins, one draw), while the Rhinelanders, on the other hand, have only won two of their last six Europa League home games (one draw, three losses).
It is accordingly consistent to avoid the three-way system in this first leg and instead rely on both teams scoring goals. On the one hand, the Rhinelanders have always scored in their last twelve matches and on the other hand, the Belgians have always found the net in their last 25 matches without exception.
