Do the Citizens have to tremble in the cup as well?
The personnel Erling Haaland is currently being discussed up and down again at Manchester City. According to media reports, the Norwegian is unhappy in the English industrial city. Allegedly, false promises have been made. Apart from that, the blond hunk also seems to be unhappy with his role as a pure enforcer in the Citizens’ star ensemble.
From a purely sporting point of view, however, there’s not much to complain about from his personal point of view, as he set a new club record by scoring his 27th Premier League goal already at the weekend, and he did so in just 24 league games played. On Tuesday evening, however, the ex-Dortmund man is unlikely to feature, or only briefly. Ahead of Bristol’s FA Cup Round of 16 tie against Manchester City, we venture a prediction that Haaland will get a rest.
However, this strain-controlling measure does not alter the fact that the reigning English champions will, of course, go into the away game at the second-division club as overwhelming favourites. It would be a huge sensation if a bet on the underdog in the clash between Bristol and Manchester City were to come true. Even a clear victory for the Citizens cannot be ruled out under normal circumstances. Nevertheless, we will end the introduction with a typical phrase, because as we all know, the cup has its own laws…
Bristol – statistics & current form
For Bristol City, the upcoming round of 16 in the FA Cup against the long-time English industry leader is the highlight match par excellence. It is only the fourth time this millennium that “The Robins” have made it to the fifth round of the oldest cup competition in the world. However, they have never made it to the quarter-finals in this millennium. 1973/74 was the last time the team from the south-west of the country, usually dressed entirely in red, made it to the last eight.
The Red Robins earned their home tie against the Manchester stars thanks to two victories against league rivals. They needed a replay against Swansea City to open the campaign, while West Bromwich Albion were comfortably beaten 3-0 in front of their home crowd.
Bristol City go into the game of the year with a broad chest
The anticipation for the Round of 16 match is unbroken at Bristol City Football Club at the moment. This is primarily due to the very passable form in which head coach Nigel Pearson’s team has been in for a few weeks. In the second-tier Championship, “The Robins” have not lost a single match in the football year 2023. In nine games, there have been four wins and five draws. The last win dates back to 26 December 2022.
In terms of the table, this sustained unbeaten streak, which continued at the weekend thanks to the 1-0 win at home against Hull City in the dress rehearsal, has resulted in Pearson’s team moving up to 13th position and thus establishing a 13-point lead over the first relegation place. Full concentration therefore enjoys the FA Cup match against the Sky Blues, who on paper are vastly superior.
In the match of the year, it will primarily be a matter of holding the zero for as long as possible defensively and defending compactly. It seems relatively obvious that the class-defying outsiders will not get many top-class chances themselves. On the one hand, because the opponent will be in control and will only allow a few goals. On the other hand, also against the background that the Red Robins scored a maximum of one goal in nine of the past eleven second division games. In our eyes, it is therefore not out of the question that odds on an away win including a clean sheet will pay off between Bristol and Manchester City.
Predicted Bristol line-up:
O’Leary; Tanner, Vyner, Kalas, Pring; James, Williams; Sykes, Scott, Bell; Wells
Last matches played by Bristol:
Championship
25/02/2023 – Bristol City 1 – 0 Hull
18/02/2023 – Sunderland 1 – 1 Bristol City
16/02/2023 – Bristol City 1 – 1 Wigan
11/02/2023 – Bristol City 1 – 0 Norwich
04/02/2023 – Preston 1 – 2 Bristol City
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
In the race for the championship in England, Manchester City continue to lose out to Arsenal. The Sky Blues are two points behind the leaders from London, who also have a game in hand. Coach Pep Guardiola’s team can no longer defend the Premier League title on its own.
In general, the reigning champions are playing an average season at best. The dominance of past days and years has suffered noticeably. The star ensemble from the industrial city is struggling with problems on and off the pitch. In addition, a drastic penalty is in store if UEFA can prove that the world club has violated Financial Fair Play.
The fact that not everything is “peace, joy and happiness” with the Citizens at the moment was also made clear in the Champions League the previous week, when Guardiola’s troops only managed a 1-1 draw with RB Leipzig after a weak second half. So there is still a huge amount of work to be done in mid-March for the Cup contenders.
Guardiola fires up the rotation machine
All in all, the defence has turned out to be a weak point in recent weeks. In seven of the last eight Premier League games, keeper Ederson always conceded at least one goal. In eleven league games after the World Cup break, only in two cases did he keep a clean sheet.
The fact that we are nevertheless focusing on the odds on a “to-nil” victory for the favourites with a view to the upcoming cup match between Bristol and Manchester City is, of course, partly due to the fact that the difference in quality on Tuesday evening at Ashton Gate cannot be denied. On the other hand, Haaland and Co. also remained without conceding a goal in the two FA Cup games so far. And that against Chelsea and Arsenal…
In terms of personnel, the Catalan coach, who caused a novelty the previous week against RBL when he did not make a single change throughout the entire match, will certainly make some changes. Frequent players like Haaland, Grealish, Rodri and Akanji are likely to get breaks. Lewis, Gomez, Phillips or Alvarez will push into the starting eleven. The goal will once again be kept by cup keeper Ortega.
Predicted Manchester City line-up:
Ortega; Lewis, Dias, Ake, Gomez; Silva, Phillips, Gundogan; Mahrez, Alvarez, Foden
Last matches played by Manchester City:
Premier League
26/02/2023 – Bournemouth 1 – 4 Manchester City
Champions League Final
23/02/2023 – RB Leipzig 1 – 1 Manchester City
Premier League
18/02/2023 – Nottingham Forest 1 – 1 Manchester City
16/02/2023 – Arsenal FC 1 – 3 Manchester City
12/02/2023 – Manchester City 3 – 1 Aston Villa
Bristol – Manchester City Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
These two clubs have met 16 times in England’s top football league (the last time was in the 1970s). Bristol City even won half of these matches, but the professionals on the pitch on Tuesday were not even born at that time.
It is a little more interesting to look at the two most recent head-to-head duels, which took place in 2017/18 in the League Cup semi-finals. The Citizens won both first and second legs by a one-goal margin. However, the head-to-head definitely does not have any notable relevance to the Bristol vs Manchester City prediction from 2023.
Bristol – Manchester City prediction
Pep Guardiola has won the English Championship four times as City coach, and the League Cup has also gone to Manchester four times during his tenure. However, the former Bayern coach has only won the far more prestigious FA Cup once so far (2019). The desire to win the title again is all the greater. The road to the final at Wembley is still long. First, the next compulsory task must be completed on Tuesday evening.
Ahead of Bristol’s clash with Manchester City, the betting odds are logically swinging clearly in the direction of the Sky Blues. The Premier League leaders face a mediocre second division side who are unbeaten in nine Championship games. Moreover, “The Robins” approach the duel with plenty of anticipation and desire.
Nevertheless, we are convinced that the Citizens, despite an expected personnel rochade, will bring a relatively undisturbed success after regular playing time. Consequently, we are playing the away win bet between Bristol and Manchester City, including the clean sheet.
The top odds for this are surprisingly high at 2.00, which is probably due to the fact that Guardiola’s team has rarely gone without conceding a goal recently. We believe that will change on Tuesday night at Ashton Gate and are risking a six unit bet.
