Will Villarreal make the step out of the crisis?
On Monday evening, the 23rd matchday of the current season in the Spanish LaLiga will be completed at the newly rebuilt Estadio de la Ceramica. In the process, two teams will face each other whose conclusions for the 2022/23 season so far cannot be positive.
Despite this, the bookmakers see a clear favourite, with a maximum of 1.70 offered on a home win bet between Villarreal and Getafe. The international contender is undoubtedly rated stronger in terms of quality, but recent results cast major doubts on this bet.
The word “crisis” has to be used to describe the Setien eleven, as the Conference League contender has been flushed out of the international places and into a dismal mid-table position after four defeats in a row.
Quique Sanchez Flores’ team is currently only above the ominous line thanks to a better goal difference. However, they have recently scored five points from three games, which means a small upward trend. The momentum suggests a prediction of points for the visitors in Villarreal v Getafe.
The neutral football fan will not expect an attacking game in this match, but both teams have their qualities in defence. It is quite possible that just one mistake will tip the game to one side or the other. The match kicks off on Monday evening at La Ceramica at 9 p.m.
Villarreal – Statistics & current form
Quique Setien’s tenure at the yellow submarine from Villarreal has been like a real rollercoaster ride, as after a disastrous start, the team caught themselves and picked up 13 points from five games, including a deserved home win against Real Madrid.
Their last win came on 22 January, when Dani Parejo converted a 101st-minute penalty against Girona to win 1-0. Since then, the ambitious submarine has suffered four defeats in a row. Among other things, the team achieved the feat of being the only team to lose to Elche this season (1:3).
Setien stands for a different style
Ex-Barcelona coach Setien was eyed critically by many supporters as soon as he was announced. After all, he stands for a very different style of football than the last coaches. Ball possession, many passes, little space gain, but total control over the game were the cornerstones under Unai Emery.
Setien, on the other hand, needs players with pace, forces the vertical play directly forward and stands much higher. For this type of play, certain player material is needed and this is simply not available.
Raul Albiol, Dani Parejo, Etienne Capoue or Manu Trigueros are not players who impress with their speed. Top talent Yeremy Pino (winger) has more quality when working against the ball than when playing forward. This change of philosophy still causes problems in many situations and is certainly a reason for the current misery. Injury worries (Coquelin will not play again this year) and a lack of reinforcements are further arguments for the current situation.
With six home wins, one draw and three defeats, the hosts have a good home record. This is certainly one of the reasons why the odds on a home win for Villarreal against Getafe are so good. However, there is no value in these odds, because the worry lines in the home side’s camp are too big for that.
Last games played by Villarreal:
La Liga
19/02/2023 – Mallorca 4 – 2 FC Villarreal
13/02/2023 – Villarreal FC 0 – 1 FC Barcelona
04/02/2023 – Elche 3 – 1 Villarreal FC
31/01/2023 – Villarreal FC 0 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
22/01/2023 – Villarreal FC 1 – 0 Girona
Getafe – Statistics & current form
2015/16 the team from Madrid had to accept relegation from La Liga. At that time, Getafe had 26 points after 22 games and thus four points more than at present. The current points tally is identical to last year (5-7-10), but the goal difference is three goals worse. This means that Getafe are currently enjoying their weakest LaLiga season in more than ten years.
Upward trend gives hope
Despite this, there is hope in the Getafe camp that they will manage to stay in the league this season. Two 1-1 draws in derbies against Atletico Madrid and Rayo Vallecano were followed by a 1-0 win at local rivals Villarreal, the bats from Valencia, last weekend. The home win in the relegation clash meant Valencia were overtaken and Quique Sanchez Flores’ side left the red zone. Ex-Wolfsburg player Borja Mayoral was the match-winner with his fifth goal at the home Coliseum Alfonso Perez.
The 1:0 was Getafe’s fifth LaLiga game in a row where betting on the under 2.5 was the right decision. For a relegation candidate, the team has a very strong defence. Only 28 goals conceded in 22 league games are only slightly higher than, for example, Betis Sevilla, who are fifth in the table (25 goals conceded).
With the third point win in a row, however, an upward trend is clearly visible. With both teams having strong defensive lines and we expect few goals.
Last matches played by Getafe:
La Liga
21/02/2023 – Getafe 1 – 0 Valencia
12/02/2023 – Getafe 1 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
05/02/2023 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 1 Getafe
29/01/2023 – Getafe 0 – 1 Real Betis
23/01/2023 – FC Barcelona 1 – 0 Getafe
Villarreal – Getafe Direct comparison / H2H balance
After four defeats in a row, the club from the Madrid suburbs comes to La Ceramica as a team that can definitely be called a favourite opponent. The direct comparison speaks a clear language in favour of the yellow submarine from Villarreal. In total, there have been 42 duels so far, of which the yellows have had the better end 24 times.
Getafe, on the other hand, have celebrated only nine victories, with nine other games ending in a draw. A point was also shared in the first duel of the season (0-0), with Getafe finally picking up a point against Villarreal after six defeats en suite.
Villarreal – Getafe tip
The home side have averaged 2.09 goals per game so far in 2022/23, while the visitors are only marginally higher at 2.14 goals. These figures suggest that the forecast for Villarreal against Getafe is for a game with few goals.
Not only is the Under 2.5 recommended, but there is definitely value in the Under 1.5 betting odds as well. Both teams have only had 13 games (out of 22; 59%) with two or more goals so far this season.
In the final match of the 23rd round between Villarreal and Getafe, odds of 2.75 are offered when betting on the under 1.5. There is some value to be had here and is therefore considered our best betting option on this game, but the stake is manageable at four units. Other interesting options are betting on a draw at half-time or a general division of the points.
