Can Real Sociedad upset the reigning champions?
The last matchday of the first half of the season is on the agenda in the Spanish football top flight this weekend. After the semi-finalists in the Copa del Rey were determined during the week, the 19th matchday is also dominated by a royal duel. The absolute top match will take place in the capital, with Real Madrid and Real Sociedad facing off at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium.
FC Barcelona can take the lead in the long-distance duel on Saturday afternoon and further increase the pressure on Ancelotti’s team. The reigning champions are currently three points behind the Blaugrana and have a tough task ahead of them in the form of the Basques from San Sebastian, as RSSS are only three points behind Real Madrid and could draw level with a win. Between Real Madrid and Real Sociedad, betting odds of around 1.70 are offered on the home side, while a win for the visitors attracts five times the betting odds.
During the week, both teams were in action in the Copa del Rey, with different outcomes. Already on Wednesday, Real Sociedad San Sebastian narrowly lost 1-0 at FC Barcelona after a long period of being shorthanded. Real Madrid were not in action until Thursday and had to play 120 minutes in front of their home crowd in the Derbi madrileno against Atletico Madrid before their progress was certain. Not ideal preparation for the top match, which kicks off on Sunday at 20:45.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
The last time the Madrilenians won the Copa del Rey was in 2014. The dream of winning the title for the first time in nine years is still alive and well, and once again, the royals showed great comeback qualities. Already in the round of 16 against the yellow submarine from Villarreal, they turned around a 0:2 deficit. In the derby against the city rivals, Rodrygo forced extra time with his equaliser. In an intense game, Real won 3-1 after a Savic penalty.
In their first home match in 77 days, Real initially produced a disappointing performance without being dangerous. Only as the game progressed did Real find their way into the game and eventually had the longer breath.
Still without defeat at home
The draw for the semi-finals will be made on Monday, but before that the top match is still on the agenda. Despite the intense cup fight, the Ancelotti eleven is naturally the favourite in the home game. There is nothing to shake about this role, after all, the Royals have not lost a single home game this season. They have won all three group matches at the Santiago Bernabeu in the top flight, but have only played seven home games in the domestic championship so far. Five of them were won, only against Osasuna and Girona the title aspirants had to settle for a 1-1 draw.
Nevertheless, between Real Madrid and Real Sociedad, predictions on the home win are discouraged. Favourites yes, but value is not available at 1.70. In addition to the extra time on Thursday evening, the fact that Carlo Ancelotti is not a fan of rotation also speaks against the Madrilenians. Only rarely does Ancelotti allow one of his players a breather; as a rule, his starting eleven is always on the pitch.
Moreover, Real do not have many options these days, as some players have been out for a long time and are therefore not available. Among them is Austrian David Alaba, who was supposed to return in the cup but then suffered another setback.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois – Mendy, Militao, Rudiger, Fernandez – Valverde, Camavinga, Ceballos – Vinicius Junior, Benzema, Asensio
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
Copa del Rey
27/01/2023 – Real Madrid 3 – 1 Atletico Madrid
La Liga
23/01/2023 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 2 Real Madrid
Copa del Rey
20/01/2023 – FC Villarreal 2 – 3 Real Madrid
Super Cup
16/01/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 3 FC Barcelona
12/01/2023 – Real Madrid (4)1 – 1(3) Valencia
Real Sociedad – Statistics & current form
Due to an assault by Brais Mendez, the Basques had to play with Barcelona from the 40th minute onwards. In the end, it was an expected defeat, but the performance in the 0:1 at the Camp Nou had to be rated very positively. Leipzig loanee Sörloth even had a huge chance to equalise shortly after conceding the 0:1, but failed miserably in front of the empty goal.
RSSS on fire – five wins in a row
A strong performance was no surprise, as Imanol Aguacil’s team has been in great form for weeks now. Before the World Cup break, they managed a 2-1 away win in Sevilla, and after the World Cup break, there were initially seven more victories en suite. In addition to three victories in the Copa del Rey, they have also won all four of their most recent league matches. In total, the Basques have celebrated ten victories in the last 13 league games and underline their ambitions for one of the four Champions League starting places. They already have a comfortable seven-point lead over the fifth-placed team in the table.
The defence around goalkeeper Alex Remiro is particularly convincing. If the games against FC Barcelona (1:4 defeat) and the duel against Girona (5:3 victory) are excluded, Real Sociedad de San Sebastian only conceded eleven goals in 16 games. Seven times they have kept a clean sheet and only seven times this season have there been RSSS games with three or more goals.
Major injury concerns also apply to the situation for Aguacil’s eleven, who will have to do without several key players for Sunday night’s top-of-the-table clash in Madrid. Ex-Dortmund player Mikel Merino, right-back Andoni Gorosabel and the two attacking players Umar Sadiq and top talent Momo Cho are definitely out. Veteran David Silva should be fit in time for the clash. In their current condition, however, it doesn’t seem to matter who puts on the RSSS jersey, the form is right. With Real Madrid against Real Sociedad, the odds for a point win for the visitors are definitely worth considering.
Predicted Real Sociedad line-up:
Remiro – Rico, le Normand, Zubeldia, Elustondo – Marin, Illarramendi, Mendez – David Silva – Barrenetxea, Sörloth
Last matches played by Real Sociedad:
Copa del Rey
26/01/2023 – FC Barcelona 1 – 0 Real Sociedad
La Liga
21/01/2023 – Rayo Vallecano 0 – 2 Real Sociedad
Copa del Rey
18/01/2023 – Real Sociedad 1 – 0 Mallorca
La Liga
15/01/2023 – Real Sociedad 3 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
08/01/2023 – Almeria 0 – 2 Real Sociedad
Real Madrid – Real Sociedad Direct comparison / H2H balance
According to the law of series, predicting a draw should be the right call in the clash between Real Madrid and Real Sociedad on Sunday night. In the 2019/20 season, Real Madrid won both of their season games against the Basques, but a year later the points were shared in the two league games. Last season, the Ancelotti eleven again retained the upper hand in both home and away games. Another option is goals from both teams, four of the last five Madrid home games against RSSS have seen goals from both sides.
Real Madrid – Real Sociedad Tip
On Saturday afternoon, Barcelona can massively increase the pressure on the Madrilenians with an away win in Girona. Then the Ancelotti eleven must almost talk about a must-win in the home game against RSSS. However, this will by no means be an easy task, as the Basque guests have been in convincing form for weeks. In addition, the Aguacil eleven has 24 hours more time to recover and did not have to play a strenuous extra time, but they themselves were outnumbered for a long time.
There is no denying the home strength of the Madrilenians, nevertheless there are several signs that speak against betting on the home victory between Real Madrid and Real Sociedad. After five wins in a row, RSSS can also hold their own at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. With five units, the prediction on the “double chance X2” is alluded to in this respect. But in the Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad duel, the betting odds on the draw also have charm, according to the law of the series in the direct comparison, a draw would be due.
