Potter’s last chance to turn things around?
Chelsea Football Club continue to find themselves in a tangible crisis. The Blues again lost 2-1 away at Fulham on Thursday night, conceding their fifth defeat in their last seven Premier League matches. Under Graham Potter, the Londoners have now dropped to tenth place.
Even their upcoming opponents are just three points behind the 2021 Champions League winners and could draw level on points with success at Stamford Bridge. If you actually want to bet on the visitors’ treble in the upcoming London derby between Chelsea and Crystal Palace, you can get top odds of 5.50.
Looking at these teams’ recent league encounters, however, it is clear why the home win prediction is considered far more likely between Chelsea and Crystal Palace. The Blues have won all of their last ten Premier League encounters against the Eagles.
That impressive run is now set to continue, although the pressure is of course not lessening in light of recent failures. Perhaps Wilfried Zaha and Co. can even exploit this exceptional situation at the hosts in their own favour. That does not seem out of the question at the moment.
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
It somehow fits into the picture of Chelsea Football Club’s completely screwed-up season so far that new signing Joao Felix initially made a passable impression on his debut against Fulham, but was sent off with a red card after a nasty foul just after half-time. The Whites then made the most of the overtime and went on to win 2-1 at home, handing the Blues their next major setback.
Already after the previous defeats in the FA Cup (0:4) and in the Premier League against Manchester City (0:1), the first fans had harshly criticised the questionable dismissal of Thomas Tuchel with posters and chants.
It is becoming increasingly obvious that the change of coach to Graham Potter could have been a mistake. Only eight of the 19 competitive games under the direction of the football coach, who left Brighton, have been victorious. Most recently, there have been five defeats in the past seven inter-competitive matches. They have already been knocked out of both national cup competitions and are currently ten (!) points adrift of the Champions League places they are aiming for in the Premier League.
How much time does Graham Potter still get?
The fact that Chelsea are still very clear favourites against Crystal Palace according to the odds is somewhat surprising in view of this indisputable period of weakness. Especially considering that the Blues have lost three of their last six London home derbies at Stamford Bridge, including the only one so far under Graham Potter (0:1 vs. Arsenal).
To make matters worse, Graham Potter has never won a home game against Crystal Palace. With Swansea and Brighton, the 47-year-old tried four times at home against the Eagles and even conceded three defeats. According to rumours, the Chelsea managers have long been considering his replacement again. Mauricio Pochettino is seen as a candidate to take over if Potter does not turn things around quickly.
The unsettled Blues, who have lost two of their last three PL home games and have scored more than one goal in only one of their nine league games since mid-October, will be without many of their key attacking players on Sunday. Joao Felix is suspended, Sterling and Pulisic are out long-term due to injury. Zakaria, James, Fofana, Chilwell, Kante and Broja are also unavailable.
Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Last games of Chelsea:
Premier League
13/01/2023 – Fulham 2 – 1 Chelsea FC
FA Cup
08/01/2023 – Manchester City 4 – 0 Chelsea FC
Premier League
06/01/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 1 Manchester City
01/01/2023 – Nottingham Forest 1 – 1 Chelsea FC
28/12/2022 – Chelsea FC 2 – 0 Bournemouth
Crystal Palace – Statistics & current form
Crystal Palace also go into this capital derby with two knocks on their necks. The Eagles lost their last Premier League match 4-0 at Tottenham, before also losing 2-1 at home to Southampton in the FA Cup the previous week despite leading 1-0. In the coming weeks and months, coach Patrick Vieira’s team can concentrate fully on the tasks in the league. Reparation is the order of the day. The French coach wants to see a reaction.
The London derbies in particular have not been particularly successful for the current twelfth-placed team. No other club in the capital has collected fewer points in derbies than Palace. The four defeats conceded also correspond to the highest value and, at first glance, are actually an indication that one should rather refrain from making a prediction on the guest between Chelsea and Crystal Palace.
Crystal Palace is and remains an unpleasant opponent
However, the Eagles have already proven a time or two in the current playing year that they like to perform against supposed favourites. For example, the Vieira eleven scored at Anfield Road against Liverpool or at Newcastle United. Against Manchester City, meanwhile, Zaha and Co. were even 2-0 up before they still lost 4-2.
In general, the away record of last year’s twelfth-placed team is quite respectable. Only three of the eight matches played away from home were lost. Only the current top three in the Premier League conceded fewer goals away from home than Palace. These statistics are most likely due to the style of play of the Londoners, who place great value on a compact defence and then rely on their very fast top players for switching play.
Since we trust the supposed underdogs to play another decent away game on Sunday, we are not averse to eyeing the odds on Vieira’s team taking a 1-0 lead between Chelsea and Crystal Palace. There will probably be no shortage of counter-attacking chances. Even the double chance X2 could be an exciting betting option. Compared to the FA Cup defeat, there will certainly be changes in terms of personnel.
Predicted line-up of Crystal Palace:
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Last games of Crystal Palace:
FA Cup
07/01/2023 – Crystal Palace 1 – 2 Southampton
Premier League
05/01/2023 – Crystal Palace 0 – 4 Tottenham
31/12/2022 – Bournemouth 0 – 2 Crystal Palace
26/12/2022 – Crystal Palace 0 – 3 Fulham
Club friendlies
17/12/2022 – Crystal Palace 2 – 1 Real Valladolid
Chelsea – Crystal Palace Direct comparison / H2H record
Ten Premier League wins in a row were Chelsea’s last against Crystal Palace. The Blues have also scored at least one goal of their own in the last 17 competitive matches between these teams.
In the first leg at Selhurst Park, however, the 2021 Champions League winners struggled to turn the match around after trailing 1-0 at one stage. The winning goal, however, came in injury time. It is also interesting to note that none of the past 23 (!) league games between the Blues and the Eagles have ended in a draw. Will this streak continue?
Chelsea – Crystal Palace Tip
Two struggling teams face each other in the Premier League matchday 20 on Sunday. While Crystal Palace probably know better how to deal with the dip in form after two defeats in the league as well as in the FA Cup, there is real pressure on the kettle at Stamford Bridge. Graham Potter is on the verge of being sacked and will not get many more chances to turn things around.
Furthermore, with the injury situation causing the favourites major problems, Joao Felix another attacking player out after being sent off and the Blues now on five defeats from their last seven competitive games, betting odds on a good result in favour of the visitors seem more interesting ahead of the London derby Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace.
We too have decided to play at particularly high odds. In our eyes, the Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace bet on the Eagles to score the first goal of the match hides the most appealing value. The Vieira team was already 1-0 up in the first leg, has very good counter-attacking players and could exploit the aforementioned pressure situation with the home side. At the highest odds of 3.10, a stake of just four units is enough to pocket a hefty profit.
Alternatively, it is also conceivable that more goals will be scored in the second half. Chelsea have not conceded a goal in the first 45 minutes in any home game so far, and Crystal Palace have also recently shown themselves to be much more vulnerable after the break than before the change of ends.
