Clear number for the Leones?
The second main round of the Copa del Rey will feature a Basque derby when fourth-tier club Sestao River host renowned professional side Athletic Bilbao. The two teams already met in the cup competition in 2019/20, when the first division club celebrated a commanding 4-0 away victory. Now, too, Sestao against Athletic Bilbao are going for an unassailable win for the Leones.
At first glance, the fact that Sestao played through the entire World Cup break may seem to be an argument in favour of the fourth-division team. Aitor Calle’s team even occupies first place in the second group of the fourth-tier Segunda Federación. However, the Leones have also been keeping fit with test matches, which is why the forecast for Sestao against Athletic Bilbao clearly goes to the visiting team.
The big question is how big the Leones’ away win will be. In view of the fact that Athletic Bilbao have the third-best attack in La Liga with 24 goals from 14 league games, we expect a high-scoring game. Accordingly, a lot of value is provided by betting on at least a three-goal difference in the end.
If the handicap bet is too risky for you, you can bet that Bilbao will win by zero or that only one team will score at most.
Sestao – Statistics & current form
Sestao River Club is based in the Basque town of Sestao, which lies on the left bank of the Ría de Bilbao and is a suburb of Bilbao. Among others, the U21 European champion Unai Núñez, who has already played 112 competitive matches for Athletic Bilbao but never played for Sestao itself, was born here.
The comparatively small club, which was founded in 1916 as Sestao Sport Club, has rarely been relevant in football. However, the club did manage a total of 17 seasons in the country’s second-highest division before relegation and the withdrawal of its licence in the summer of 1996 led to its drop from La Liga 2 to the seventh-highest Spanish league.
33 out of a possible 42 points in league play
In the meantime, the Basques were promoted back to the third-highest league, but are currently playing in the fourth division for the sixth year in a row. Sestao River are currently doing extremely well in the second group of the Segunda Federación. With 33 out of a possible 42 points, the Basques are already leading the table by a clear eight-point margin over second-placed Utebo.
Sestao have only lost one of their 14 league games so far (ten wins, three draws), which is mainly due to the good defensive work of Aitor Calle’s team. With just eight goals conceded, the club has the best defence in the league.
Even three years ago with 0:4 home defeat against Bilbao
The Basques pulled off a surprise in the first round of the Copa del Rey when they beat Racing de Ferrol 1-0 in the third division. Now, for the second time since 2019/20, the derby with prominent neighbours Athletic Bilbao beckons.
Even then, the underdogs lost their home game at the Campo Municipal de Las Llanas by a clear 4-0 margin, which is why it is no surprise that the betting odds are clearly against the fourth-division side in the Sestao vs Athletic Bilbao match.
Predicted line-up of Sestao:
Crespo – Mateo – Huete – Niwa – Etxeberria – Urzelai – Garai – Aranzabe – Goti – Yurrebaso – Martínez
Last matches played by Sestao:
Segunda Federacion – Group 2
17/12/2022 – Beasain 0 – 0 Sestao
11/12/2022 – Real Sociedad C 1 – 3 Sestao
04/12/2022 – Sestao 4 – 0 Racing Rioja
27/11/2022 – Arnedo 1 – 2 Sestao
20/11/2022 – Sestao 0 – 1 CD Brea
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form
Athletic Bilbao belongs to the absolute traditional clubs in Spain. Not only because of the club culture, which is still practised, that only players with roots in the Basque Country are allowed to play for the Rojiblancos, but also because of the great successes.
The Leones have played in the first division since 1928, won the national championship eight times and, with 23 Copa del Rey victories to their name, were Spain’s record cup winners for a long time before being replaced by Barcelona.
Four commanding test matches during the World Cup break
Although the Leones won their last Copa del Rey, now 38 years ago in the summer of 1984, the Basque showpiece club is closely associated with the competition, so stumbling in the early rounds is not in keeping with the club’s DNA. Especially not for a fourth-division club and especially not for a Basque derby.
The Leones do not have to travel long to Sestao, ten kilometres from the city centre. Ernesto Valverde’s squad should not lack fitness either, having kept up their match rhythm with four test matches during the 2022 World Cup. All four games were won by nil.
La Liga’s third-best offence
The Rojiblancos continued their strong start in La Liga, where Athletic Bilbao are currently fourth in the table with 24 points out of a possible 42 and are on course for the Champions League. The main reason for this has been the strong offensive performance. With 24 goals, the Leones have the third-best attack behind Barcelona and Real Madrid.
Accordingly, there is a lot of value in betting on Sestao against Athletic Bilbao, that the Valverde team will also set off a firework of goals in the neighbouring Campo Municipal de Las Llanas and win with at least a three-goal difference in the end.
Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:
Simón – Lekue – Álvarez – Vivian – de Marcos – Vesga – N. Williams – Herrera – Sancet – I. Williams – Guruzeta
Last matches played by Athletic Bilbao:
Friendly club matches
18/12/2022 – Udinese 0 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
16/12/2022 – Athletic Bilbao 3 – 0 Burgos CF
12/12/2022 – Athletic Bilbao 2 – 0 CD Guadalajara
06/12/2022 – Athletic Bilbao 2 – 0 Real Valladolid
Copa del Rey
14/11/2022 – Alzira 0 – 2 Athletic Bilbao
Sestao – Athletic Bilbao Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 0 – 0 – 1
Back in the 2019/20 season, Sestao and Athletic Bilbao faced each other in the second main round of the Copa del Rey. On that occasion, the favoured Leones won 4:0 in the Las Llanas.
Sestao – Athletic Bilbao Tip
Almost three years after their last competitive match, the prediction for Sestao against Athletic Bilbao clearly goes in the direction of the visitors. Although Sestao already beat a higher-ranked club in the first main round.
The Leones also have the third-best attack in Spain’s top division, which makes it a clear-cut affair. We bet that the scoreboard will show at least a three-goal difference in favour of the visitors.
