Does the Cowboys offence stay hot against Houston?
Cowboys vs. Texans is probably the most uneven duel on NFL Game Day 14 and could therefore be a very one-sided affair. The oddsmakers think so too and give Dallas a record-breaking handicap of -17 points for this season.
Of course, this makes betting on the Cowboys a little more difficult, even though they are considered the clear favourites in this duel. But we remember: The Texans also held their own surprisingly well against Philadelphia and in the end lost to the league’s top team by only 12 points.
Dallas, however, are a force defensively and offensively, averaging 39.8 points in their last five games. They put up eight touchdowns in their last game against the Colts alone, which promises some points again on Sunday.
Thus, our forecast for Cowboys vs. Texans is a win for the Cowboys, which will be clear-cut and in which there will be a few touchdowns to see. However, we dare not predict whether the margin of victory will exceed the projected 17 points.
Kickoff of the NFC vs. AFC duel is on Sunday at 7:00 pm in Dallas. The game can be watched live on ENDZN on DAZN.
Dallas Cowboys – Statistics & current form
How long will this offensive form of the Cowboys last? They set a new best this NFL season with 54 points against the Colts, with 33 of those points coming in the fourth quarter alone. Also Cowboys franchise record.
Many pundits are wondering if they can even top that number against an even weaker Texans team. But that’s not how the NFL works and even a Boys win is not as certain as many think. The Cowboys can only check with the Eagles, who only bagged the win against Houston in the last quarter.
Stats better than their game
The 33 points in the final quarter against Indianapolis also somewhat masked the fact that the Cowboys game wasn’t perfect beforehand. They led just 21-19 before that final period against a team that has already written off the season.
In this respect, the high handicap against the Texans should also be viewed with caution. However, it is clear that on good days they can put up touchdown after touchdown, and so we expect at least four of their own again against Houston.
For Dallas against Houston, a bet on over 5 total touchdowns is therefore a bet that makes sense with excellent value. After all, their defence has also allowed an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game in the last five games mentioned.
How many penalties do the Cowboys allow?
With the exception of the game against the Vikings, the fact that they always have their lapses defensively is partly due to their susceptibility to penalties. With 86 penalties already, they rank second in this statistic. Only the Broncos have been yellow-flagged more often.
In this respect, we would avoid betting on Dallas with this enormous handicap. Since we also expect a Texans score or two, for Cowboys vs Texas a bet on Over 5 Touchdowns is a bet that is more than good to play.
Key Players:
QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Tony Pollard
WR: CeeDee Lamb
TE: Dalton Schultz
K: Brett Maher
Houston Texans – stats & current form
The Texans are still the team with the weakest record (1:10:1) and since all other teams in the league already have at least three wins on their account, they will probably stay that way until the end. After all, who expects a win against Dallas now or against the Chiefs the following week?
So the only thing left for Houston is to finish the season decently and to gain some first insights for the coming season. One question, for example, would be who will be their starting quarterback then.
Will Allen get the start again?
Against the Browns on Sunday, it was Kyle Allen who got the start at the QB position after Davis Mills turned in some weaker performances earlier. But Allen also threw two interceptions, got only 51.3% of the balls to the man and had a QB rating of 53.5 points.
He even underperformed Mills, which leads us to the conclusion that Davis Mills will probably be back on the field against Dallas. It probably won’t make much of a difference, though, as there isn’t a team with a weaker QB duo in the league right now.
Defence the only bright spot
The reason the Texans don’t get too big of a thumping in many games, losing by a two-score difference at most, is because of their rookie running back Dameon Pierce and their defense. They allow an average of 23.9 points, which is only the tenth weakest value.
We think it is almost impossible that they can keep up this number against Dallas at AT&T Stadium. In order to keep up, they will have to put up a few touchdowns themselves. But we don’t trust them to score more than two.
Nevertheless, even these two touchdowns would mean that the total of over 5 touchdowns could easily be reached. Also playable are bets on over-points, for which, however, mainly the Cowboys will provide.
Key Players:
QB: Davis Mills
RB: Dameon Pierce
WR: Brandin Cooks
TE: Jordan Akins
K: Ka’imi Fairbairn
Dallas Cowboys – Houston Texans Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The last duel in 2018 was actually won by the Houston Texans. However, their quarterback back then was also named Deshaun Watson and he played in his prime. Neither Mills nor Allen can be expected to have a similar performance.
Apart from that, this duel only happens very rarely in the NFL. In the entire history only five times, which is of course also due to the young tradition of the Texans. Rather, we should use the current form as a comparison, which, like almost all statistics, speaks in favour of Dallas.
Thus, the odds on Dallas are also an option for Cowboys against Texans, although we don’t quite trust the handicap of -17. Rather, a lot of Boys points or Dallas + Over points are still picks that seem bettable.
Dallas Cowboys – Houston Texans Tip
How high will the Cowboys win? This question has already fallen on the feet of one or two sports bettors in this crazy season, which is why we would avoid handicap bets on this duel.
Instead, another bet is our clear recommendation: Over 5 touchdowns. In Dallas vs. Houston, the odds on this are outstanding at up to 2.25 and should definitely be taken advantage of. Dallas has already scored eight touchdowns against the Colts alone.
Betting on a Cowboys running back to score a touchdown is of course also possible. Both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott are currently finding the end zone on a regular basis. However, since Elliott gets most of the touches in the Red Zone, we prefer betting on him.
