Will Spain seal Germany’s World Cup exit?
It’s happened again! Just like at the World Cup finals four years ago, the German national team lost its opening match and is now already with its back to the wall before the second matchday.
This is also confirmed by the Germany vs Spain odds, according to which the Iberians are the favourites on Sunday evening.
The fact that their in-form opponents won their first match against Costa Rica 7-0 (!) certainly doesn’t make things any easier for Germany.
I’m not quite as pessimistic about my Germany – Spain tip.
Because: With a victory over the Iberians, the chances of the DFB team would suddenly improve. Quite apart from the psychological “breast relief”, much would also be back on track in the World Cup Group E standings.
That should be motivation enough for the German team to finally put their undoubted talent on the pitch for 90 minutes. A veritable football battle awaits, in which the four-time world champions will have to show a completely different face offensively and above all defensively.
You can find out why I’m not giving up hope yet in my detailed analysis, which can be found in the lower part of this Germany vs Spain prediction.
My first Germany vs Spain tip: We will see some goals!
While it is difficult to predict the outcome of Germany’s potentially decisive clash with Spain for obvious reasons, at first glance there is a lot to suggest that there will be goals.
On the one hand, of course, because of the starting position, which ensures that Jamal Musiala and Co. will inevitably have to take more risks at some point and play to win. But also because of the strong attacking lines of both teams, which will probably have a few top-class chances against the susceptible defences. Kick-off is at 20:00 on Sunday evening. Can the Germans book their ticket home about two hours later?
Spain – Statistics & current form
Spain could hardly have celebrated a better start to the tournament. The Furia Roja won 7:0 against Costa Rica without any problems and convinced all along the line. With a lot of enthusiasm, goals worth seeing and a very confident performance, the Iberians sent the first exclamation mark to the competition with the highest World Cup victory in the history of their own association.
It should not be forgotten, however, that their opponents were Costa Rica, who looked overburdened from the start, had a keeper in Keylor Navas who had no match experience and could not find any means to challenge the Spanish defence. Despite the gained self-confidence and the self-image of wanting to dominate every match in terms of football, it remains to be seen what the performance level of the former world and European champions really is.
First acid test for the Furia Roja
The upcoming group match against the DFB team should provide some insight into this. Especially since the Spaniards have only won one of four World Cup matches against the four-time world champions from Germany in their international history. Apart from that, the world number seven has only managed to start the tournament with two consecutive victories in three finals so far. Not least for this reason, we would be cautious about playing the odds on the success of the Luis Enrique team between Spain and Germany.
Despite the justified adulation and the impressive statistic of nine victories from the last twelve international matches, the Spanish defence must also first prove that it can shut down an opponent’s high-quality offensive line in a major tournament. In this year’s Nations League, they conceded two goals each against Switzerland and the Czech Republic.
Spanish arrogance as a glimmer of hope for the DFB team?
A further chance for the Germans is that the Furia Roja may feel too secure in their role as favourites. Also, by the way, to get a little more euphoria into their own country. At home, the 2022 World Cup in Qatar is viewed critically and not really accepted by many. The national team has set itself the task of changing that with spectacular and glamorous performances.
Luis Enrique has been known in the past to repeatedly change his starting eleven in several positions. His own team is completely adapted to the opponent. Even convincing victories do not cause the former Barca coach to rethink. On Sunday, for example, it could be that the faster Carvajal moves to the right side of the back four in place of Azpilicueta. There is also a small question mark behind Jordi Alba, who has to be substituted due to injury. If the veteran is absent, youngster Balde will have to defend on the left. A chance for Germany?
Predicted line-up of Spain:
Simón – Alba, Laporte, Rodri, Carvajal – Busquets, Gavi, Pedri – Olmo, Asensio, Ferran Torres
Last matches played by Spain:
World Cup Group E
23/11/2022 – Spain 7 – 0 Costa Rica
Friendly matches
17/11/2022 – Jordan 1 – 3 Spain
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 2
28/09/2022 – Portugal 0 – 1 Spain
25/09/2022 – Spain 1 – 2 Switzerland
13/06/2022 – Spain 2 – 0 Czech Republic
Germany – Statistics & current form
If you believe the German media, the DFB eleven won’t need to play Spain at all on Sunday. After the admittedly very sobering and disappointing defeat against Japan, the DFB team had to endure malice and ridicule. The Flick team is accused of having put too much focus on non-sporting matters. But the fact that the Germans had the Asian opponents completely under control for almost 60 minutes and seemed very dominant and concentrated is completely overshadowed by the result.
It will therefore be important to look at the initial situation in a differentiated way and to put aside any emotionalism or agitation by the media when betting. It is also of immense importance that national coach Flick correctly assesses the defeat, clearly addresses the serious lapses in the defence and encourages the team. There was no lack of chances. The only thing that was lacking was efficiency. It would be wrong to overturn everything and talk badly.
Will Germany now be underestimated?
With this in mind, we are not averse to considering odds between Spain and Germany on a good result for the 2014 world champions. It is conceivable, for example, that Jamal Musiala and Co. will score the first goal of the match. Here, Bwin offers an attractive 2.05 at the top. DNB 2 would be another option with similar odds.
The fact is that the top match from Group E will have a completely different static than the match against Japan. Because the Iberians claim to have 70-75% possession against every opponent, the Germans can stand a little deeper this time and rely more on their own switching game. With players like Gnabry, Musiala, Havertz and hopefully Sané, the four-time world champions have enough speed and quality to hurt the southern Europeans.
That’s one of the reasons why we expect a few goals in the course of the game, because while we definitely think the Flick team has a lot to offer offensively, it should not be ignored that the defence around the two BVB aces Schlotterbeck and Süle looked anything but capable and will also have problems defending everything away. In our eyes, the most interesting prediction for Spain against Germany is for at least three goals to be scored in the course of the match.
Is Hansi Flick rebuilding in a big way?
The fact that they have never started the tournament with two defeats at a World Cup finals gives the world number eleven hope. In addition, the Germans have only lost one of the past 30 World Cup matches in which they have scored at least one goal. They have also never lost three FIFA World Cup matches in a row! Exactly such a defeat is now looming on Sunday. And not only that, because in the event of a defeat, the early exit would be sealed! Even a draw would be tantamount to a second consecutive exit from the preliminary round.
In terms of personnel, the only question for the 80 million national coaches at the moment is how many changes will be made in the starting eleven. Although under normal circumstances it is difficult for a coach to change several positions in the back four, he probably has no other option. Günter as a slightly more defensive alternative to Raum, Kehrer for the sleeping Süle and Ginter for Schlotterbeck would be potential options. On the offensive, the nation is hoping for the return of Leroy Sané. Goretzka could replace Gündogan as a box-to-box player. Otherwise, Flick should trust his idea and not let an unfortunate failure dissuade him.
Predicted line-up of Germany:
Neuer – Raum, Rüdiger, Ginter, Kehrer – Gündogan, Kimmich – Sané, Musiala, Müller – Havertz
Last matches played by Germany:
World Cup Group E
23/11/2022 – Germany 1 – 2 Japan
Friendlies
16/11/2022 – Oman 0 – 1 Germany
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 3
27/09/2022 – England 3 – 3 Germany
24/09/2022 – Germany 0 – 1 Hungary
15/06/2022 – Germany 5 – 2 Italy
Spain – Germany Direct comparison / H2H balance
The Germans’ recent memories of encounters with Spain are definitely not particularly positive. The DFB team has only won one of the last seven international matches against the Iberians.
The 6:0 victory over the Spaniards in the Nations League almost exactly two years ago remains unforgotten. Until today, this was also the last direct duel between the two world champion nations. At least the fact that the Germans lost only one of four matches against their upcoming opponents at World Cup level gives hope. The southern Europeans’ only victory came at the 2010 finals in the semi-finals (1:0).
Spain – Germany Tip
An early final already awaits the German national football team on Sunday evening. Depending on the outcome of the parallel match between Japan and Costa Rica in the morning, the DFB team could be eliminated after the second group match. With a view to the Spain vs. Germany betting odds, the 2014 world champions are actually only being treated as outsiders.
This assessment by the best bookmakers is based primarily on the impressions of the first matchday. Spain swept Costa Rica off the pitch 7-0 and at times played themselves into a real frenzy. The Flick team lost 2-1 to Japan after leading 1-0 and showed defensive weaknesses. In the direct duel between the former title holders, however, a completely different game is now expected, possibly even a static one that plays into the Germans’ favour.
We believe that odds on the DFB team actually contain the more appealing value. The quality is there, the footballing potential is there and in terms of motivation, the Germans will certainly want to deliver an act of defiance. Bets on the team around captain Manuel Neuer scoring the first goal of the match or winning (DNB) are definitely worth considering.
Nevertheless, our top tip ahead of the Spain vs. Germany clash goes in the direction of a match with at least three goals after 90 minutes. The starting position serves as an argument, as does the expected course of the game and the very good quality of the offensive lines of both teams.
