Will Midtjylland still prevail in Group F?
The group stage of the Champions League is over and all round of 16 teams have been selected. This Thursday, the decisions in the two smaller European cup competitions, the Europa League and the Europa Conference League, will be made.
One of the most exciting and tightest groups in these two competitions is Group F of the Europa League. Here, all teams still have a chance of progressing before the upcoming matchday.
Such as Midtjylland and Sturm Graz, who will meet next Thursday in Denmark. Midtjylland are under pressure to win in order to advance to the next round, while the Austrians only need one point to advance.
However, the team from Denmark has the better cards in this duel – at least according to the best bookmakers. For the Midtjylland vs Sturm Graz bet on the home team, lower odds can be found than for the bet on the away win or the draw.
However, this is not necessarily the case. While the Danish runners-up have fallen far short of expectations in the league and Europa Cup so far this season, Graz are currently in top form.
Midtjylland – Statistics & current form
After strong years in Denmark with the championship in the 2019/20 season and two runner-up finishes in the past two seasons, Midtjylland seem to have to bake smaller bread this year. They have slipped to eighth in the domestic Superliga, ten points behind leaders Nordsjaelland.
They have only won five of their 15 games so far this season, and only two of their eight home games so far. Last weekend’s dress rehearsal was also a disaster, with a 2-1 defeat at home to Odense. Nevertheless, the odds for Midtjylland against Sturm Graz indicate favouritism for the home team.
Only one win in the group stage so far
At the moment, things are hardly better for the team of coach Capellas Herms in the Europa League. Midtjylland won only one of the five group matches. Here, however, the Danes set a clear exclamation mark with the 5:1 home victory against group favourites Lazio Roma.
That the team is strong enough to beat any opponent in the group on a good day and what quality it has was once again clear here. So the Austrians will be warned. Midtjylland have good quality, especially on the offensive, but at the back they conceded at least one goal in every game in the group stage.
Since Midtjylland have to play all or nothing, because only a win will help them progress, we expect an attacking line-up from the Danes. In any case, the style of play in the 4-3-3 is already offensive. Since Graz also conceded eight goals in their two away games in the Europa League group stage, but is currently in strong form and can also lurk on the counterattack in this match, we predict goals on both sides for Midtjylland against Sturm Graz. Only Brumado will be missing for Midtjylland.
Predicted line-up of Midtjylland:
Lössl, Paulinho, Sviatchenko, Dalsgaard, Andersson, Evander, Martinez, Charles, Chilufya, Dreyer, Isaksen
Last matches played by Midtjylland:
Europa League Grp. F
04/11/2022 – FC Midtjylland 2 – 0 Sturm Graz
Superleague
01/11/2022 – FC Midtjylland 1 – 2 Odense BK
Europa League Grp. F
27/10/2022 – Lazio Roma 2 – 1 FC Midtjylland
Superleague
22/10/2022 – FC Copenhagen 1 – 1 FC Midtjylland
Danish Cup
19/10/2022 – FA 2000 0 – 6 FC Midtjylland
Sturm Graz – Statistics & current form
The enthusiasm is huge in Styria. Because although Sturm Graz have been regularly represented in the European competitions over the last two decades, they have mostly been mere cannon fodder here. If they didn’t already fail in one of the qualifying rounds, coach Ilzer’s team was always finished in one of the first rounds at the latest. Things are different this year.
Although they were drawn into one of the stronger groups of the Europa League with the Danish runners-up Midtjylland, the Serie A representatives Lazio Rome and the Dutch top team Feyenoord Rotterdam, a point in Midtjylland is already enough one matchday before the end to spend the winter in the European Cup. Even the financially lucrative group victory is still possible. The betting providers are nevertheless rather sceptical, with Midtjylland against Sturm Graz the odds only indicate an underdog role for the visitors.
Golden October
At the same time, Sturm Graz are currently in top form, unlike their upcoming group opponents. Sturm played nine games in October and won six of them, there was no defeat. Two of the draws came against the top favourites in Group F, Lazio Roma, and in the league against the Austrian champions in Salzburg. They also beat Feyenoord Rotterdam at home, which has opened the door to the round of 16 in the group. For this to happen, however, Graz must now also pass Midtjylland.
Especially offensively, the Austrians are still lacking in the Europa League, four goals from five games so far are not a good record. And the defence has also been shaky so far in the away games, in contrast to the games in the Austrian Bundesliga, where they have managed to keep a clean sheet six times. In the Europa League, on the other hand, they conceded eight goals at Feyenoord and Lazio.
Even group victory is still in the cards for the Austrian runners-up. But in the worst case scenario, they could also be eliminated. Graz are encouraged by the fact that they have only lost two games this season in the league and the European Cup and that the Danish runners-up have yet to get going this season.
We therefore think that Graz can hold their own in Midtjylland in their current form. The Midtjylland vs Sturm Graz tip therefore goes to the visiting team, with an Asian handicap of +0.75. In terms of personnel, coach Ilzer can draw from the full range in Denmark.
Predicted line-up of Sturm Graz:
Siebenhandl, Dante, Wüthrich, Affengruber, Ingolitsch, Stankovic, Prass, Hierländer, Kiteishvili, Emegha, Ajeti
Last matches played by Sturm Graz:
Europa League Grp. F
04/11/2022 – FC Midtjylland 2 – 0 Sturm Graz
Bundesliga
30/10/2022 – Sturm Graz 2 – 1 Ried
Europa League Grp. F
28/10/2022 – Sturm Graz 1 – 0 Fey. Rotterdam
Bundesliga
22/10/2022 – RB Salzburg 0 – 0 Sturm Graz
Cup
19/10/2022 – Grazer AK 0 – 1 Sturm Graz
Midtjylland – Sturm Graz Direct comparison / H2H-balance
The encounter in the first leg, which Sturm Graz won 1-0, was also Midtjylland’s first meeting with an Austrian team. Therefore, no meaningful statistics are available for this encounter. For Sturm Graz, too, it was the first encounter against a Danish team in a European competition.
If you add the four friendlies against Danish teams so far, there has only been one defeat in five games against representatives of the Danish Superliga.
Midtjylland – Sturm Graz Tip
The starting position before this duel is clear. Midtjylland must win to advance in the Europa League, while the Austrians from Graz are already through with a point. Surprisingly, the bookmakers put the Danes as the favourites, as they have only won three of their ten home games in the Europa League and the championship so far.
The Austrians are in a completely different position at the moment; Graz did not lose a competitive match in the whole of October and could spend the winter in European competition for the first time in two decades. That is exactly the goal of Ilzer’s team, which flies to Denmark full of self-confidence after the strong performances in the last weeks.
Against this background, we expect another strong performance from Graz and send the supposed underdog in this match with an Asian handicap of +0.75 into the decisive encounter. This Midtjylland vs Sturm Graz prediction is shown with interesting odds at the bookmakers.
Unlike in the domestic league, nothing of the defensive strength of the Austrians was seen in the two away games of Graz in the Europa League so far. They conceded a total of eight goals against the offensively strong teams from Rotterdam and Rome.
This is also a sign that the level of play in the Europa League is different from that in the domestic league. With Midtjylland, Graz will once again face an opponent who has enormous qualities on the offensive and who will also have to put all their eggs in one basket in this match.
Midtjylland have already scored seven goals in their two home games in the Europa League, and in the Danish league they have only failed to score in two of their eight home games so far.
We therefore believe that the Danish runners-up will be able to outwit the Graz defence at least once, but will not keep a clean sheet against in-form Graz themselves.
