Will the Werkself win their second match under Alonso?
Hardly any Champions League group is more exciting than Group B. Three teams have three points after three matchdays and are fighting for second place. Bayer 04 Leverkusen from the Rhineland is currently in second place. Thanks to the better goal difference, the multiple German runners-up are ahead of FC Porto and Atletico Madrid.
First place is currently occupied, very surprisingly, by the Belgian representatives from Bruges. The Belgians already have nine points and qualification for the round of 16 seems to be a mere formality for them. The duel between Leverkusen and Porto will therefore be extremely important. Tips in both directions are possible, but the hosts appear to be slight favourites due to the recent change of coach.
The first leg was close, especially in the first half, then Porto deserved to win in the end. But the Werkself has undergone a transformation on the sidelines and since the weekend the legend Xabi Alonso has been coaching the Bayer players.
However, the former World and European champion has yet to prove himself as a coach. At least he celebrated a successful debut in the 4:0 win against FC Schalke 04, perhaps the weakest team in the Bundesliga at the moment. For those who believe in a clear turnaround under Alonso, the odds on a win for Leverkusen against Porto are something to play for. And this does not seem unlikely for the time being.
Of course, Wednesday’s opponents are much stronger than the Schalkers from Gelsenkirchen. Porto not only won the top match before their clash with Bayer against Braga, but also triumphed 2-0 against seventh-placed Portimomense at the weekend. The reigning champions and cup winners thus remain on the heels of Benfica.
Another win against Leverkusen and Porto’s crisis would finally be history. Kick-off for the match in the BayArena is at 9 pm on Wednesday evening. The league’s jewel box should also be transformed into an absolute witch’s cauldron. For the Leverkusen team and also for the visitors, almost everything is at stake.
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
A new era began at Bayer 04 Leverkusen last week. Xabi Alonso, who was one of the best midfielders in the world for a decade when he was a player, is now on the sidelines for the Rhinelanders. Reason enough to consider betting on the hosts again for Leverkusen vs. Porto.
For Gerardo Seoane, it was already the end of his second season at the helm, but you have to give the Bayer bosses credit for sticking with their trusted coach for so long. Now it’s Alonso, who has only ever coached the second-tier Spanish team San Sebastian.
Leader urgently wanted
Most of all, leadership has been lacking at the Werkself recently. Leader number one Lukas Hradecky was in a slump of form and more concerned with himself than with leading the team. Andrich is not yet the crystal-clear leader he can be at Bayer. And so the Bayer eleven trundled into relegation regions in the Bundesliga, where they also still are despite the opening win under Alonso.
At the weekend, in the first game under the Spaniard, Schalke 04 were cut to pieces with 4:0. The men from the Rhineland have therefore built up some self-confidence for the clash between Leverkusen and Porto. But a prediction on Bayer needs to be carefully considered, because Porto is a completely different calibre than Schalke. At least at the moment. With Alonso, Bayer has bought leadership in person and the midfield legend’s influence was directly felt on Saturday.
Should Bayer win on Wednesday, it would be the first time since October 2014 that they have won two home games in a row in the top flight. In the first leg, despite maximum uncertainty, they had good chances and could certainly have taken the lead. If they put in a good performance on the pitch, they are certainly favourites. And since Alonso seems to have taken the players straight by the horns, a home win is a thoroughly realistic scenario.
It will also depend on the “former” goal-scorer Patrik Schick. The world-class striker is in a glaring slump of form and is finally hoping for liberation. In the Champions League, he has already shot twelve times at the opponent’s goal, but no goal has come out of it. Even a Schicks penalty was saved in the first leg. Will the knot finally break against Porto? There are interesting betting odds for a goal by Schicks in Leverkusen vs. Porto. His brilliant partner in attack Florian Wirtz is still missing for the Bundesliga club due to injury.
Predicted Leverkusen line-up:
Hradecky – Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapie – Frimpong, Andrich, C. Aranguiz, Bakker, Diaby, Hudson-Odoi – Schick
Last matches played by Leverkusen:
Bundesliga
08/10/2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 4 – 0 Schalke 04
Champions League Grp. B
05/10/2022 – FC Porto 2 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
01/10/2022 – Bayern Munich 4 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
17/09/2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 1 – 1 Werder Bremen
Champions League Grp. B
14/09/2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 0 Atletico Madrid
Porto – Statistics & current form
Fc Porto is the top address in Portuguese football and so is the Dragons’ self-image. After the unsuccessful start to the season, there were even riots in the 0:4 against Brugge in the Champions League. Just one example of how hot-blooded the Portuguese fans are, even if this does not excuse these incidents, of course. But an exit in the CL group stage is out of the question for the record champion.
Recently strong performances
Won the top match against Braga, knocked Bayer 04 out of their home stadium in the end and clearly defeated Portimonense at the weekend. Porto’s form curve is clearly pointing upwards and coach Concecaio’s men are looking to record two wins against a German team for the fourth time in their history. They have already done so against Bremen, Hertha and former Bundesliga side HSV.
Medhi Taremi, who set up both goals against Bayer 04, has been outstanding for the visitors lately. They were his first goals ever in the top flight. The current situation certainly does not exclude a prediction on the guests in Leverkusen vs. Bayer are the stronger side, which is also confirmed by the home side’s market value of 470 to 257 million. Against a self-confident Bayer, Porto will have to build on their good form and, in the best case, even go one better.
In the first leg at the Estadio Do Draga, Taremi was joined by Galeno, who scored as a wild card and set up the other goal. Former Leverkusen player Wendell also put in a solid performance against his former club. All in all, Porto have an excellent mix of experience and up-and-coming players, led by captain and former Real Madrid player Pepe. Porto are a force to be reckoned with on Wednesday, but against a Leverkusen playing well, they are only underdogs.
Porto’s likely line-up:
Diogo Costa – Rodrigo Conceicao, Fabio Cardoso, David Carmo, Wendell – Otavio, Uribe, Eustaquio, Pepê – Evanilson, Mehdi Taremi
Last matches played by Porto:
Liga Portugal
08/10/2022 – Portimonense 0 – 2 FC Porto
Champions League Grp. B
05/10/2022 – FC Porto 2 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
Liga Portugal
01/10/2022 – FC Porto 4 – 1 Braga
17/09/2022 – Estoril 1 – 1 FC Porto
Champions League Grp. B
14/09/2022 – FC Porto 0 – 4 Club Brugge
Leverkusen – Porto Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Besides the 2-0 win for Porto in the first leg, there have only been two duels between the two internationally respected clubs. Leverkusen won twice in the 19/20 Europa League, 2-1 at home back in February 2020, a result I’m sure coach Alonso’s men would sign straight away.
Porto, however, have lost their last four away games in the CL and will be eager to win either way.
Leverkusen – Porto Tip
The first leg went to Porto in a deserved manner, because they pressed Bayer 04 down mentally and had the much broader chest in front of their home crowd. These two factors have now been put to bed. On the one hand, Bayer 04 now have the home advantage and, on the other, the home side’s chest has warmed considerably with the arrival of new coach Xabi Alonso.
The players appeared to have been replaced in the first match under the Spaniard and therefore we will go with Bayer 04 in our tip on Wednesday. Leverkusen vs. Porto provides lucrative odds for a home win for the Rhinelanders, where Alonso now has a few more days to light more fire in the players.
Bayer 04 have been given a new lease of life by the change of coach and the Werkself should continue to flourish on Wednesday. Especially in front of a home crowd, they should be able to pull off a victory against Porto with a good performance. We therefore place our bet on the former Champions League finalists from the Rhineland and believe that with Xabi Alonso, the winning mentality will return to the Bayerkreuz.
Porto’s weakness in games in Germany and away from home in general is another factor
