Can Union give Bayern a leg up in the top match?
Who would have thought just a few years ago that on the fifth matchday of the 2022/23 Bundesliga season FC Bayern would be visiting Union Berlin for the absolute top match at the Stadion an der alten Försterei? In fact, the two teams who have ten points to their name so far and are therefore still unbeaten, the Eisern and the record champions, will face each other on Saturday afternoon.
Despite the sensational form of the capital club, which is reflected among other things in a season-long eleven league games without defeat, Union Berlin are traded as clear underdogs against Bayern according to betting odds, underlining the pure dominance that Julian Nagelsmann’s team have exuded so far this season. After the first small damper in the previous week against Gladbach, the Munich side are looking to return to winning ways and defend their top spot in the table.
The fact that the FCB is the only team in the German top flight against which the upstarts from Köpenick have never won in their own history also speaks in favour of this. In addition, the serial champions are the only team to have already celebrated two away victories at the “Alte Försterei”. If Sadio Mané and Co. don’t waste their chances again next weekend, it would be a big surprise if the prediction of a point win for Fischer’s team between Union Berlin and Bayern comes true.
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
If you had the feeling after the end of all three first division seasons that Union Berlin had reached the maximum of their own capabilities, we have always been proven wrong. After a commanding first season in the league, qualification for the Conference League in their second year and a fifth place in the Europa League group stage last year, the Eisernen are preparing to push the boundaries again in 2022/23.
For the first time ever, Union started the Bundesliga season with ten points from four games. City rivals Hertha, RB Leipzig and Schalke have already been beaten, and there was also a goalless draw at FSV Mainz 05. Across the season, the team of the unagitated Swiss coach Urs Fischer has been unbeaten for eleven league games. Nine wins and two draws in that period underpin their earned status as the top team in Germany’s best football league.
Union no longer even knows the feeling of defeat
Despite the impressive results in recent weeks and months, as well as the outstanding record in front of a home crowd, where only two of the last 35 (!) Bundesliga games have been lost, part of the whole truth, however, is that Sheraldo Becker and colleagues have in some ways overperformed so far. At least if you look at the value of the Expected Goals.
Measured by the quality of the chances, only the relegation candidates from Augsburg would have been allowed to score fewer goals than Fischer’s eleven. However, the fact that the 3.3 expected goals are no more than a mere numbers game is shown by the eleven goals ultimately scored by the capital club. Strictly speaking, the Eisern thus even have the second-best offence in the league, which could serve as an argument for betting on both sides to score in the top match between Union Berlin and Bayern.
Do the Eisernen find the right balance?
There is no doubt that the Red and Whites, who start their international adventure with a home match against Belgian runners-up Royale Union St. Gilloise on Thursday, have exactly the strengths needed to put the record champions in trouble. The switching game works outstandingly well, the standards are dangerous and also the fearlessness in combination with a certain carefree attitude could have a positive effect on the result.
At the same time, however, the offensive has conceded at least one goal in three of four league games so far, as well as in the DFB Cup against Chemnitz. Against what is currently perhaps the best and most flexible attack in Europe, the first setback is therefore looming, which in our eyes seems unavoidable. Baumgartl and Diogo Leite are the only two injured players in the squad. Urs Fischer will therefore not make many changes to the starting eleven. Only captain Trimmel could move into the team.
Predicted line-up of Union Berlin:
Rönnow – Doekhi, Knoche, Jaeckel – Trimmel, R. Khedira, Ryerson – Thorsby, Haberer – Becker, Siebatcheu
Last matches played by Union Berlin:
Bundesliga
27/08/2022 – Schalke 04 1 – 6 Union Berlin
20/08/2022 – Union Berlin 2 – 1 RB Leipzig
14/08/2022 – Mainz 05 0 – 0 Union Berlin
Club friendlies
09/08/2022 – Union Berlin 1 – 1 Hannover 96
Bundesliga
06/08/2022 – Union Berlin 3 – 1 Hertha BSC
Bayern – Statistics & current form
If we already have to struggle to find the appropriate superlatives when it comes to Union Berlin, it might be even more difficult at the moment with FC Bayern. Although the Munich side have been champions of Germany for the last ten years, we have to go way back in the annals to identify a similar dominance to the first four matchdays.
With a goal difference of 15:1 and three wins from three games, coach Julian Nagelsmann’s team got off to the best start in Bundesliga history, although this could not be continued the previous week against the Foals from Mönchengladbach. The 1:1 in the Allianz Arena nevertheless falls into the “slip” category, because if the FCB had only been a little more efficient in front of the opponent’s goal, the team from the Lower Rhine would have been sent home with a clear defeat.
Did Bayern lay the foundation stone again before the change of ends?
Following the equally commanding cup victory against third division side Viktoria Köln last week, in which a number of newcomers and substitutes were given a chance to start, it can be assumed that a forecast of a relatively unchallenged victory for the favourites will pay off once again on Saturday in the match between Union Berlin and Bayern. The goal of the star ensemble from Säbener Straße will be to defend their place in the sun. That, in turn, will probably only succeed with a win.
We have already discussed the sensational offensive of the serial champions. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that 13 of the 16 goals scored in the season were scored away from home. Nine of these 13 goals were scored in the first half. In four of the five competitive matches played, Thomas Müller and Co. already led by at least two goals at the break, which is why we are not averse to taking a closer look at the odds on a start-finish victory in the form of the double result in the top match of the fifth matchday in the Bundesliga, Union Berlin vs. Bayern.
In terms of personnel, Julian Nagelsmann is spoilt for choice. All players are ready for action and eager to give a letter of recommendation for the upcoming Champions League opener against Inter Milan. For Goretzka, a start will probably come too soon. Musiala, Gnabry and de Ligt are clear candidates for the starting eleven. Leroy Sané, who had to sit on the bench against Cologne during the week, seems certain to return to the team. After all, the international could score for the first time in a Bayern shirt and at the same time for the first time since 2015 in three consecutive Bundesliga games.
Bayern’s likely line-up:
Neuer – Pavard, Upamecano, Hernandez, Davies – Kimmich, Sabitzer – Coman, L. Sané – T. Müller, Mané
Last matches played by Bayern:
DFB Cup
01/09/2022 – Viktoria Köln 0 – 5 Bayern Munich
Bundesliga
27/08/2022 – Bayern Munich 1 – 1 Gladbach
21/08/2022 – VfL Bochum 0 – 7 Bayern Munich
14/08/2022 – Bayern Munich 2 – 0 VfL Wolfsburg
06/08/2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 6 Bayern Munich
Union Berlin – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H balance
In the past three seasons, these clubs have dueled six times. In 2020/21, Bayern had to settle for a 1-1 draw in the first and second legs. The other four encounters, however, have all gone to the Munich side, who have also celebrated two away victories at the Alte Försterei.
Last season, the record champions won 5:2 (!) in the capital. The last direct encounter to date ended in mid-March with a 4:0 win for the South Germans. It was one of only two clean sheets of the FCB against the FCU. In addition, it was the last defeat to date that the Eisernen conceded in the top flight.
Union Berlin – Bayern Tip
More top match does not go. FC Bayern and Union Berlin will play the absolute top match of matchday five on Saturday afternoon in front of an impressive crowd at the Alte Försterei. The two rivals have the most points on their books, have scored the most goals and are also the teams with the best form in the German top flight. The omens could hardly be better.
Experience has shown that the Munich team is in a class of its own in games like this. This thesis can also be proven with figures, as the FCB has not lost any of the last 18 duels between the leaders and the runners-up (13 wins, five draws). Apart from that, the record champions are still unbeaten after six matches against the Köpenickers in the Bundesliga.
We therefore believe that the lower betting odds on the away win between Union Berlin and Bayern are justified and also believe that the dominator of the first four matchdays will immediately restore clarity after the small setback against Gladbach.
In our opinion, it is even advisable to place a bet on HT2/FT2 before the Union Berlin vs Bayern clash. As on the first few matchdays, Nagelsmann’s team will do everything in its power to take an early lead. In the first two matches away from home alone, nine goals were scored before the break, which is why the attractive 1.95 for the double result is our first betting option.
