Will Bilbao shoot the Andalusians to the bottom of the table?
While some of Europe’s top leagues have scored plenty of goals in the first few days of the new season, the focus in Spain’s La Liga, of all places, is currently more on defence. After two matches, six teams have scored only one goal. Only Cadiz is completely without a goal. The southern Spaniards lost twice to nil and have therefore already nestled deep in the bottom of the table.
On Monday evening, the relegation candidates will get their next chance to get their first point under their belts. However, it will be a tough job, as the visitors from the Basque country have not yet conceded a goal and have started very well with four points. Not least because of this, lower odds are being offered on an away win between Cadiz and Athletic Bilbao.
The fact that three of the last four direct duels have been won also speaks in favour of the supposed favourites. Among other things, the Basques also triumphed in the last two away games at the Nuevo Mirandilla, where the yellow-blue home side already revealed serious problems in the pre-season and developed anything but a home strength. As a result, our prediction for the Cadiz vs. Athletic Bilbao clash is more likely to go in the direction of the visiting team.
Cadiz – Statistics & current form
For a relegation candidate, it is actually essential that there is a certain strength in front of the home crowd and that the majority of the points needed to stay in the relegation zone are earned in front of their own fans. The situation was different in the previous season for Cádiz Club de Fútbol, who were actually the weakest home team in La Liga 2021/22 after 38 match days.
Only three of 19 home games were won, and there were also nine draws and seven defeats. Only three teams scored fewer goals at home than the Andalusians, who picked up 21 points away from home – three more than at home – on their way to a surprisingly successful stay in the league. The first home match of the current season was also lost again against Real Sociedad. Just like last weekend’s encounter in Osasuna (0:2).
Cadiz waiting for first goal and first point
Cadiz are the only team in the Spanish top flight still waiting for their first goal of the season. Zero points and zero goals currently lead to penultimate place in the table. The self-confidence is lacking, the forward momentum is also missing and defensively they have too many lapses to be able to keep the defensive zero.
With this in mind, the best option is probably not to bet on the home side between Cadiz and Athletic Bilbao. Even another defeat without a goal of their own cannot be ruled out. Tomas Alcaron will have to watch suspended. Garrido and Alcaraz are missing due to injury. Changes to the starting eleven from the previous week are conceivable, but on balance we expect similar personnel and no change of system. With the flat 4-4-2, the first success of this season should be celebrated.
Predicted line-up of Cadiz:
Ledesma; Zaldua, Hernandez, Chust, Espino; Perea, Fali, Mari, Arzamendia; Perez, Lozano
Last matches played by Cadiz:
La Liga
20/08/2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 2 – 0 Cadiz
14/08/2022 – Cadiz 0 – 1 Real Sociedad
Friendly club matches
07/08/2022 – Sevilla FC 1 – 0 Cadiz
05/08/2022 – Cadiz 1 – 4 Atletico Madrid
29/07/2022 – Cadiz 0 – 1 Lille
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form
Athletic Bilbao’s managers will be comfortable with their start to the season. After conceding no goals in the last two preparation games, the defensive stability could also be transported into league play. Both at home against Mallorca (0:0) and at home against Valencia (1:0), keeper Simon kept his clean sheet. Therefore, no further arguments are needed to state that work against the ball is currently the Basques’ greatest asset.
It will be interesting to see whether Ernesto Valverde’s team can do better away from home this season than they did last season, when they primarily squandered the points they needed to jump into the European Cup. Just four wins in 19 away games underline this thesis, as does the fact that only 14 of their own goals have been scored.
Traditionally few goals in games involving Bilbao?
With Rayo Vallecano and Getafe, only two teams scored less often. Those who believe that the “Leones” will once again stand for minimalist football as the visiting team can alternatively go for the X2 & Under 2.5 prediction between Cadiz and Athletic Bilbao. The isolated under bet is definitely an option as well, although given the odds distribution, the bookmakers assume anyway that we can expect a low-scoring match on Monday night.
The defensive performances so far, however, take on added significance when you consider that Inigo Martinez, a very important key player, is still out with knee problems. Ander Herrera will also not play a role at the beginning of the week. Nevertheless, there are many indications that the 33-year-old will return from Paris St. Germain to his former club in the Basque Country in the next few days. Perhaps then to a team that has seven points on its account after three matchdays and continues to provide the best defence in La Liga.
Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:
Simon; Marcos, Vivian, Alvarez, Berchiche; Sancet, Vesga; N.Williams, Muniain, Berenguer; I.Williams
Last matches played by Athletic Bilbao:
La Liga
21/08/2022 – Athletic Bilbao 1 – 0 Valencia
15/08/2022 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 0 Mallorca
Club friendlies
06/08/2022 – Athletic Bilbao 1 – 1 Deportivo Alaves
06/08/2022 – Athletic Bilbao 1 – 0 Real Sociedad
01/08/2022 – CD Mirandes 0 – 3 Athletic Bilbao
Cadiz – Athletic Bilbao Direct comparison / H2H record
There have been a total of 30 encounters between these clubs in Spain’s top flight. Cadiz have only come out on top on eight occasions. Bilbao have won twice as often. Six draws round off the tally, which in the recent past, however, has clearly gone in the direction of the Basques. Athletic have won three of the last four encounters. Four times in a row, the away team has been victorious in this pairing. Will that streak continue on Monday night?
Cadiz – Athletic Bilbao betting tips
The Andalusian home side will be looking for their first points and first goals of the campaign as they close out the third day of La Liga. After two nil defeats in the first two games, there is already a certain pressure on Sergio’s team. In the event of another defeat, they would remain trapped in the bottom of the table for the time being.
However, the task will not be any easier on Monday evening, which is underlined by the betting odds between Cadiz and Athletic Bilbao. The visitors from the Basque country are favoured for understandable reasons. On the one hand, Valverde’s team has started the new season with four points and without conceding a goal. On the other hand, Cadiz were already the weakest home team in the league in the pre-season.
There are therefore two approaches that come into question in our eyes. Either you bet on the fact that there will be few goals in this duel, or you try it between Cadiz and Athletic Bilbao with the bet on the away victory. For the particularly risk-averse bettors, even the Basque success including Clean Sheet can be a welcome option.
