The new La Liga season kicks off
This weekend also sees the start of the La Liga season. However, unlike in the German Bundesliga, for example, the reigning champions do not necessarily play the opening game. No wonder this season, as Real Madrid were still in action on Wednesday in Helsinki, where they secured the European Supercup.
The opening match on Friday evening will be between Osasuna and Sevilla. According to the odds, the bettors expect a rather tough start. Many goals are not expected, even the mark of 2.5 goals should not be cracked – according to the opinion of the bookmakers – in the Estadio el Sadar in Pamplona. It seems as if the team that scores the first goal of the match also has the best chance of starting the new season with a treble.
Although the visitors from the south of Spain are slightly favoured on paper as the fourth-placed team in pre-season, the lower quotes on the multiple Europa League champions have to be taken with a grain of salt.
Coach Lopetegui had to rebuild his entire central defence in the summer and was rarely convincing with his team in preparation. Nevertheless, the prediction on the outcome of the match between Osasuna and Sevilla must also take into account that the home side was one of the weakest home teams in La Liga in 2021/22.
Osasuna – Statistics & current form
It is fair to say that Club Atlético Osasuna have not only acclimatised but also established themselves in Spain’s top flight in recent years. Since being promoted again in the 2018/19 season, the club from Pamplona has finished tenth twice and eleventh once in the past three seasons.
The team of coach Jagoba Arrasate, who has enjoyed the confidence of the board for more than four years now, is aiming for a similar finish in the current season. In the north of the country, they may even be aiming for a place in the top half of the table again. The last time this was achieved was more than ten years ago in the 2011/12 season.
Osasuna picked up fewer points at home than away in 2021/22
The squad was strengthened across the board in the summer. With Moi Gomez and Ruben Pena, two players were released by the Champions League semi-finalists, and left-back Manu Sánchez was convinced by Atlético Madrid to stay in the bullfighting stronghold for another year on loan. Absolute key players did not leave the club in return. The former UEFA Cup participant can therefore justifiably hope for another carefree season, but in view of the increased expectations, it is above all the home record that must be improved.
Only Cadiz scored fewer points in front of their own fans than Arrasate’s team last season. The north-eastern Spanish side won only five of their 19 home games (seven draws, seven defeats). The 17 goals scored were also the lowest in the league. In twelve of the 19 matches in front of the home crowd, a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through. Three times alone they had to settle for a goalless draw, including in the first two home games of 2021/22.
Because the style of play will not be fundamentally different from the approach of the previous season, betting on over-goals between Osasuna and Sevilla should be avoided. Kike Saveiro, Aitor Fernandez and Ante Budimir will all be absent through injury. There should be no lack of self-confidence after three test match victories in a row, all of which were by only one goal.
Predicted line-up of Osasuna:
Herrera; Pena, U Garcia, D Garcia, Sanchez; Brasanac, Torro, M Gomez; R Garcia, Kike Garcia, Avila
Last matches played by Osasuna:
Friendly club matches
05/08/2022 – CD Mirandes 1 – 2 Osasuna Pamplona
05/08/2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 1 – 0 Burgos CF
31/07/2022 – Fey. Rotterdam 1 – 2 Osasuna Pamplona
30/07/2022 – FC Groningen 2 – 1 Osasuna Pamplona
27/07/2022 – Real Sociedad 1 – 0 Osasuna Pamplona
Sevilla – Statistics & current form
It would certainly be an exaggeration to speak of a total upheaval at Sevilla FC this summer. Although several players have left the club during the transfer period so far, only the departures of Jules Kounde and Diego Carlos really hurt. But these hurt all the more.
The pair of strong centre-backs, who last season were mainly responsible for the Andalusians having the best defence in the league with only 30 goals conceded, have been completely blown up. Diego Carlos will be lacing up his boots for Aston Villa, while Kounde has moved to FC Barcelona. Marcao was signed from Galatasaray as the new head of defence, and the ex-Herthanian Karim Rekik is to start alongside him. Alex Telles, who is on loan from Manchester United, is expected to start on the left side of defence.
How will Lopetegui compensate for the departure of the centre-back duo?
Because three of the four positions in the back four have been filled, we have decided not to include the Under 2.5 in the portfolio, but instead the slightly less risky Under 3.5 as a combination multiplier.
The bottom line, however, is that it is still likely that the southern Spaniards will not leave the field as losers on Friday night. In 2021/22, Lopetegui’s side lost only four of their 38 matches. In 19 away games, they scored a total of only 30 goals (goal difference: 17:13), which should definitely be another incentive to focus on the odds on a few goals in the Osasuna vs. Sevilla clash.
However, to recommend an away win as a primary betting option, the Andalusians were still subject to too many fluctuations in their preparation. Emblematic of this was the embarrassing 0:6 defeat at Arsenal in the Emirates Cup. A 0:1 defeat against Leicester also followed. The dress rehearsal against Cadiz was again narrowly won 1-0. There are still many question marks at the moment. Perhaps Friday evening can provide answers to many of them.
Predicted Sevilla line-up:
Bounou; Navas, Marcao, Rekik, Telles; Delaney, Rakitic, Jordan; Ocampos, Rafa Mir, Corona
Last matches played by Sevilla:
Friendly club matches
07/08/2022 – Sevilla FC 1 – 0 Cadiz
31/07/2022 – Leicester 1 – 0 Sevilla FC
30/07/2022 – Arsenal FC 6 – 0 Sevilla FC
28/07/2022 – Sevilla FC 6 – 0 Angers
25/07/2022 – Sporting CP 1 – 1 Sevilla FC
Osasuna – Sevilla Direct comparison / H2H balance
Once the two teams met in the semi-finals of the UEFA Cup (2006/07) – with the better end for the Andalusians. This will be the 79th meeting in the top flight of Spanish football. With 36 wins, 20 draws and 22 defeats, Sevilla lead the direct comparison quite clearly.
Osasuna have not won against the Andalusians in La Liga since 2013. Looking back at the past ten league encounters, Sevilla have won eight and drawn two. If you want to bet on this dry spell ending, you can find a 3.20 in the top between Osasuna and Sevilla for such a prediction.
Osasuna – Sevilla Tip
The new season in the Spanish La Liga opens on Friday evening. The first match will be between Osasuna and Sevilla. According to the betting odds, the slight advantages lie with the visitors, although the 2.45 on the away win clearly underlines that the bookmakers are anything but convinced that the Andalusians will make a perfect start.
Among other things, because coach Lopetegui will have to do without his centre-back duo Kounde/Diego Carlos this season. Both defenders have left the club, leaving a big gap that could only be filled to a limited extent in the preparation so far. Nevertheless, the team still has a high-quality line-up, which is why we expect them not to lose on the first matchday.
Furthermore, we believe that few goals will be scored. On the one hand, because in the visiting games of the southern Spaniards in the preseason, a total of only 30 goals were observed. On the other hand, because of the home weakness of the northern Spaniards, who, however, did not allow too much, at least defensively.
We therefore play the tip between Osasuna and Sevilla on the X2 & Under 3.5 on.
