Does Pilsen go ahead in Helsinki?
The clubs are getting more and more renowned, the footballing quality is increasing and the prize money is also experiencing a nice increase. Just under a month and a half before the start of the Champions League group stage, six coveted starting places remain vacant. Many clubs are hoping for the big prize pots, while others would be happy if at the end of the qualifying rounds they could at least get a ticket for the Europa League or the Conference League.
These different dimensions of ambition are also evident in the upcoming first leg of the second qualifying round between the Finnish champions from Helsinki and their Czech counterparts from Pilsen. While the home side would already be happy with another participation in the Conference League, the expectations in the European beer capital are of course completely different. This is also underlined by the odds between HJK and Viktoria Pilsen, which clearly point in the direction of the Bilek team.
The bookmakers with a German licence assume according to their quotations that the Czech guests will already lay the foundation for progress in the Bolt Arena in Helsinki. In the first leg HJK vs. Viktoria Pilsen, the forecast for the away win is considered more likely. This is despite the fact that the hosts are in the running and the supposed favourites are facing their first competitive match of the new season.
HJK – Statistics & current form
On a national level, HJK Helsinki are undoubtedly the measure of all things. In the past five seasons, the Blue and Whites have won the domestic championship four times. Two cup victories in the same period round off the aforementioned dominance in Finland. On the other hand, the biggest club from the country’s capital has not yet been able to draw attention to itself on the international stage.
2014/15 was the last time they reached the group stage of the Europa League, and their last participation in the main draw of the top flight dates back to the last millennium (1998/99). In the pre-season, they managed to reach the group stage of the Conference League, but with two wins, four defeats and 15 goals conceded, they had to leave the competition early on.
Are the Finns running out of steam?
The Finns’ performance in the first qualifying round for the 2022/23 Champions League was also unconvincing, as coach Toni Koskela’s team even had to go into extra time and a penalty shoot-out against Latvian underdogs Riga in the second leg after losing 1-0 after 90 minutes. It was only there that they were able to advance.
The below-average performances in the European Cup coincide with the downward trend in the league. In fact, only one of the last five matches in the Veikkausliiga was won. As a result, they are in a disappointing second place in the standings behind Kuopio and, with a three-point deficit and one match more to play, are in danger of losing their title.
Since the Blue and Whites have lost three of their eight home games and have already conceded eleven goals, we believe that the odds are rightly pointing to an away win in the first match between HJK and Viktoria Pilsen. Qualitatively, the Finns are weaker, their form leaves a lot to be desired and the disadvantage in terms of international experience at the highest level confirms the role of the Czechs as favourites. As, by the way, does the loss of substance in what is now the third consecutive English week for HJK.
Predicted line-up of HJK:
Hazard; Peltola, Tenho, Hoskonen, Raitala; Vaananen, Hetemaj, Boujellab; Terho, Abubakari, Browne
Last matches played by HJK:
Veikkausliiga
16/07/2022 – HJK 3 – 1 Vaasa PS
Champions League qualification
12/07/2022 – RFS (4)2 – 1(5) HJK
06/07/2022 – HJK 1 – 0 RFS
Veikkausliiga
02/07/2022 – HJK 1 – 1 Kuopion PS
Cup
29/06/2022 – FC Inter Turku (5)0 – 0(4) HJK
Viktoria Pilsen – Statistics & current form
Viktoria Pilsen’s most successful period is now several years ago. Between 2013 and 2018, for example, the red and blue team won four championships in six seasons. In the same period, they also made two of their three appearances in the Champions League group stage. In the past decade, the Czech top club has proven that it can compete with the big clubs on this continent.
However, having failed to qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League in each of the last three seasons, and not even making it into the main draw of the third-tier Conference League last year, the time has come for them to make an impact at European level.
How far has Viktoria Pilsen come?
The importance of clearing the opening hurdle for the Czech champions is underlined by the fact that, should they progress to the third qualifying round, they could at least book their ticket to the Conference League group stage. The bookmakers are only offering odds in the 1.20 range between HJK and Viktoria Pilsen on the Czechs advancing, which is impressive evidence of their implied role as favourites.
Despite the quality advantages and the experience advantage over the upcoming opponents from Finland, there are still one or two aspects that need to be considered with caution. For example, Wednesday evening will be the first competitive match of the new season. The preparation has been mixed so far. Only one win was recorded in the four most recent test matches, but the team kept its defensive record clean three times.
Apart from that, it remains to be seen how the Beer City side will compensate for the departure of their most successful scorer from last year. Jean-David Beauguel moved to Saudi Arabia in the summer, leaving an obvious gap in the attack. Jan Kliment, newcomer from Wisla Krakow, is expected to step into the breach at best. Recently, however, it was more Tomas Chory who filled the vacant striker position in Michal Bilek’s 4-2-3-1 system.
Predicted line-up of Viktoria Pilsen:
Stanek; Reznik, Hejda, Pernica, Havel; Bucha, Kalvach; Cadu, Sykora, Mosquera; Chory
Last matches played by Viktoria Pilsen:
Friendly club matches
12/07/2022 – Beşiktaş 0 – 0 Viktoria Pilsen
08/07/2022 – Viktoria Pilsen 1 – 3 VV St. Truiden
1st League Championship Group
15/05/2022 – Viktoria Pilsen 1 – 0 Banik Ostrava
11/05/2022 – FC Hradec Králové 0 – 2 Viktoria Pilsen
08/05/2022 – Viktoria Pilsen 3 – 0 Sp. Prague
HJK – Viktoria Pilsen Direct comparison / H2H-balance
For the first time the two clubs face each other on the international stage. For the team from Helsinki it is even the premiere against a Czech representative. Viktoria Pilsen, too, have never played against a Finnish club in their long European Cup history. The direct comparison therefore plays no role at all in the HJK vs. Viktoria Pilsen prediction.
HJK – Viktoria Pilsen prediction
At this early stage of a season, it is always difficult to find suitable arguments to swing the pendulum one way or the other. Often it is even an advantage if teams are already in the running and have therefore already been allowed to gather a certain competitive hardness.
However, this aspect can also be a disadvantage, as the Finns from HJK Helsinki, for example, are playing their third English week in a row and left a lot of energy in the first qualifying round when they advanced after a penalty shootout against Riga. Things are not going particularly well for the reigning champions in the league either. Only one win from their last five games underlines this.
On the other hand, the Czechs are qualitatively stronger and have more experience on the international stage. Although the preparation of Bilek’s team was not optimal either, we are confident that they will be able to step up a gear or two in time for the start of the regular season.
In the end, we have decided to play the first leg of HJK vs. Viktoria Pilsen with betting odds on the visitors winning the match and scoring a maximum of three goals in the course of the match.
