Generational duel at Church Road

Two generations collide in the quarter-finals at Wimbledon on Tuesday. The 35-year-old world number one Novak Djokovic will meet the 15-year younger Jannik Sinner, who is considered one of the hottest contenders for the throne of the “Big Three” (Djokovic, Nadal, Federer) in men’s tennis. But the Serbian veteran’s time is far from over. This is also underlined by the odds before the said duel Djokovic vs.

Although the “Djoker” has already dropped two sets in the tournament so far, one currently has the feeling that the 20-time Grand Slam champion could shift up a gear or two at will. Nole already put in a really good performance in the last 16 against shooting star Tim van Rijthoven, who had previously won all his grass-court matches this season. Especially his inimitable returns will also pose problems for Jannik Sinner

The fact that the 20-year-old South Tyrolean has even made it to the last eight is surprising in that the world number 13 has not really been able to gain a foothold on grass in his still young career. Nevertheless, the redhead’s talent is undisputed. After statement wins over Carlos Alcaraz and service giant John Isner, Sinner is now looking to upset the multiple Wimbledon title holder.

Novak Djokovic – Statistics & current form

Novak Djokovic has a clear goal in mind these days at Church Road. The Serbian wants to become the fourth player of the so-called Open Era to win the world’s most prestigious tennis tournament for the fourth time in a row. In 2018, 2019 and 2021, the now 35-year-old crowned himself the title holder. No tennis was played at Wimbledon in 2020 due to the pandemic.

If we take a look at the odds on the tournament favourites at Wimbledon ahead of the quarter-final between Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner, it becomes clear that the current world number one, who has a total of six wins in the English capital, is once again the hottest candidate for the title.

Djokovic hard to beat on grass

In addition to his outstanding career record on London’s hallowed grass, recent impressions at this tournament also serve as an argument for his seventh Wimbledon triumph. Nole played three outstanding sets against Tim van Rijthoven, who was previously unbeaten on this surface, won a total of 17 break points (!) and won almost 70% of all points when the Dutchman was only serving on his second serve. With his usual confidence from the baseline and a more than passable service (75% points won after the first and 69% with the second), the “Djoker” secured his place in this quarter-final.

Another interesting statistic underlines the dominance that the 20-time Grand Slam champion can display on grass. Djokovic won nine of the 14 sets played with a difference of at least three games. If you exclude the two set losses to van Rijthoven (4:6) and the South Korean Kwon (3:6), no one has ever won more than four games in a single round against the world number one.

For this reason, among others, we are confident that the bet on a games handicap between Djokovic and Sinner will once again pay off in favour of the favourite on Tuesday. Incidentally, Djokovic’s last defeat on grass came at the 2018 preparation tournament in London. It is now 24 grass-court wins in a row for Boris Becker’s former protégé, who is now coached by Marian Vajda and Goran Ivanisevic.

Jannik Sinner – Statistics & current form

Jannik Sinner is one of the biggest promises for the future on the tour. The 20-year-old has everything it takes to win Grand Slams at some point. Nevertheless, the South Tyrolean still has weaknesses that could be mercilessly exposed on Tuesday. Especially when he is not facing the balls properly, Sinner still makes too many avoidable errors. His serve could be a little more high-percentage and the Italian can definitely improve at the front of the net.

Admittedly, we are “criticising” the top talent at an extremely high level, because his season record of 31 wins and only nine defeats is impressive proof of the redhead’s potential. In all three Grand Slams this year, the 20-year-old reached the second week.

Does Sinner get shown the limits?

At the Australian Open, he lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarter-finals, and at the French Open in Paris, the current world number 13 lost to Andrey Rublev in round four. The 1.88 metre tall right-hander would love to reach the semi-finals of a Grand Slam for the first time. It was not necessarily to be expected that he would get the chance to do so at Wimbledon, of all places, since grass has not really been one of his preferred surfaces so far.

In the run-up to the most prestigious tennis tournament on the sacred lawn at Church Road, Sinner only played one match in Eastbourne and lost it in three sets against Tommy Paul. The year before, the South Tyrolean also failed to win a Tour match on grass in two attempts. The four-set win in the first main round of Wimbledon 2022 against Stan Wawrinka was therefore the first ever professional success on the green surface (excluding qualifying). The protégé of coach Simone Vagnozzi, who has also been among the top ten in the world rankings, followed up with victories over Mikael Ymer, John Isner and Carlos Alcaraz.

Especially the four-set triumph against the Spaniard Alcaraz must have done good to the self-confidence of the likeable youngster. Now, however, a completely different calibre awaits. The Italian will get few free points and instead will be involved in rallies again and again. Because he is not yet physically on the same level as his opponent and has also been on the court for much longer in the first week of the tournament and thus has more substance left, a prediction of a commanding success for the Serb is obvious before the Djokovic vs. Sinner match.

Novak Djokovic – Jannik Sinner Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Two times this generational duel has taken place on the ATP Tour. Both times with the better end for Novak Djokovic. However, both comparisons did not take place on grass, but on clay and hard court. However, it can be assumed that the Serb’s experience plus as well as his almost perfect playing style will be even more noticeable on grass. Even a set win for the South Tyrolean would therefore be a surprise.

Novak Djokovic – Jannik Sinner Tip

On paper, the duel between Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner reads like an absolute top match. In the quarter-finals of Wimbledon, however, the signs are more than clear. The six-time champion, who has won all of his last 24 matches on grass and has not lost at Church Road since 2017, will face a promising youngster who won his first official main draw match on this surface just over a week ago.

Although the 20-year-old from South Tyrol has to be given credit for taking strong players like Isner, Wawrinka or Alcaraz out of the competition, the Djoker is a completely different type of player who hardly allows himself any mistakes, has no weaknesses and also delivered a very good match in his round of 16 match against the strong Tim van Rijthoven

Despite the undisputed talent of Jannik Sinner, we therefore believe that Wimbledon king Djokovic will not show any weakness. In our eyes, it is likely that the world number one will hold his ground smoothly in three sets and once again create many breaks.

We have therefore decided to bet between Djokovic and Sinner, at interesting odds, that the favourite will win at least seven more games than his younger opponent during the course of the match.