Can Zverev defeat even the best clay court player of all time?
The “Super Tuesday” in the men’s draw kept its promise. The two cracker duels in the upper tableau of the men’s quarter-finals were best advertising for the sport. The fans were treated to tennis at the highest level until late into the night and in both matches the supposed underdog – at least according to the betting odds – prevailed. This means that clay court king Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev will now face each other in the semi-finals.
Rafael Nadal from Mallorca once again proved that Roland Garros is his second home. In an energy-sapping match, he prevailed in four sets against Novak Djokovic. It is definitely an advantage for “Rafa” that the men’s players in the top table have a two-day break between the quarter-finals and semi-finals, so he should have enough time to recharge his batteries. This circumstance reinforces the favourite role in favour of the Spaniard and betting odds of under 1.50 are offered for the veteran in the semi-final between Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev.
Zverev produced by far the best performance at Roland Garros so far in the quarter-finals, silencing the praise of teenager Carlos Alcaraz. But to reach the final in Paris for the first time, he will have to improve his performance further.
Rafael Nadal – Statistics & current form
Rafael Nadal’s clay court statistics are not from this star and yet there was not necessarily much in favour of the Majorcan in the run-up to the giants’ duel. The setting in the night session did not suit him either, because in colder temperatures his incredible spin loses its penetrating power and the game is even more intense for Nadal. Moreover, the physical condition of Nadal, who has been suffering from Müller-White syndrome (chronic foot disease) for a long time, is always questionable.
Nadal – and also Djokovic – provided the fans on the centre court with over four hours of tennis at the highest level before Nadal converted his fourth match point at 1:15. A battle of attrition that definitely left its mark. All the more important are the two days of rest before the quarter-finals.
36th birthday of Rafael Nadal
Following the phenomenal win, John McEnroe spoke of “the best Nadal ever”. A 29-3 match record this year certainly speaks volumes, however Nadal has suffered bitter defeats in the two preparatory tournaments on his much-loved clay court. In Rome against Shapovalov, he was visibly handicapped, but his chronic foot disease is not an obstacle at the moment. Even though he hinted several times at the press conference that he does not know how long his career will last.
On the day of the semi-final against Alexander Zverev, the Majorcan will definitely have reason to celebrate, after all, he celebrates his 36th birthday on Friday and wants to keep the dream of a 14th GS title at Roland Garros alive. The earlier start – the semi-finals are scheduled for 3 and 6 p.m. – certainly suits his game.
Nadal is and remains the measure of all things on clay court. The two days of regeneration are of great importance for the Mallorcan’s battered body and underline a tip on the clay court king in the Nadal versus Zverev duel. Both a game handicap (-5.5 games) and the set handicap (-1.5 sets) are realistic options.
Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form
In the run-up to his quarter-final, Alexander Zverev complained that because of the hype surrounding Carlos Alcaraz, many other players – including himself – were being “left out”. In fact, the 19-year-old teenager was the talk of the town and players like Tsitsipas or Zverev were hardly considered in the media. In the end, his words were followed by deeds and after being extremely error-prone against qualifier Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Zverev was coolness personified against Alcaraz.
Excellent serve stats
Zverev was highly concentrated from the start and gave the teenager no chances, especially on his service. Alcaraz had nothing to do on the return and Zverev always performed at the highest level on the small chances that came his way. He didn’t let himself get rattled even by no less than 43 stop balls and always seemed to have the right answer ready and found the perfect feeling between risk and control in the rallies.
He also did not let himself be disturbed by setbacks and played the match with concentration until the match point. At 5:4 in the fourth set, he was already serving to win the match, conceded the re-break and then closed the bag in the tie-break. 3:18 playing time was one hour less than Nadal, but nevertheless this match also took a lot of energy.
In some situations, Zverev certainly benefited from the young Spaniard’s lack of experience (only his seventh GS tournament). Nadal will by no means do him this favour on Friday. In addition, a very special record speaks against the Hamburg player. Zverev has been at home among the absolute tennis elite for many years now, but the victory against Alcaraz was actually his very first win against a top ten player at a Grand Slam event. Should he achieve this feat again three days later, Nadal vs Zverev offers odds of over 3.50 for this prediction.
Rafael Nadal – Alexander Zverev Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance
Head to Head: 6:3
The semi-final at Roland Garros 2022 will be a round anniversary as it will be the tenth time the two players have faced each other. So far, clay-court king Rafael Nadal is ahead in the head-to-head with six wins against only three losses. However, the German Zverev has already proven that he can beat “Rafa” on the red clay (quarter-final of Madrid 2021). However, the four remaining matches on clay went to the Mallorcan.
Rafael Nadal – Alexander Zverev Tip
Rationally speaking, Alexander Zverev will have physical advantages on his side as the match progresses. However, on the other side is the best clay court player of all time, who has won over 90 percent of his matches on the red clay. His physical problems with his foot are well known, but Nadal is an absolute competitive type who can block out any pain in such a situation. The German’s clay-court dominance, direct comparison and GS stats against top players are all arguments to tip the odds in favour of Nadal against Zverev.
The Court Philippe-Chatrier is Rafael Nadal’s living room and he may (be able to) compete in Paris for the last time in 2022. A situation that can be mentally stressful, but for Nadal probably results in even more motivation, fighting spirit and concentration. Nadal is the measure of all things on clay and will underline this on his 36th birthday. The best betting option between Nadal and Zverev seems to be the prediction on the game handicap -5.5. One – or even two – clear sets in favour of the Majorcan would not be a surprise, five units are recommended as a wager.
