Will Sinner beat Rublev for the third time on clay?

The men’s competition at the French Open 2022 has not yet delivered any big surprises. The favourites have hardly shown any weaknesses and fans can look forward to a very intense, high-class second week of the tournament. On Monday, the round of 16 matches will be played in the lower half. The top match will certainly be the duel between Andrey Rublev and Jannik Sinner.

It is also the duel in which the bookmakers do not want to commit to a clear favourite. Currently, only slightly lower betting odds are offered for Rublev against Sinner. The Russian has more experience at GS level and the current world ranking. But Sinner is in great shape and also has the edge in the head-to-head comparison.

The winner of this clash will face the winner of the match between Marin Cilic and Daniil Medvedev in the quarter-finals, two players who cannot necessarily call the clay surface their strongest surface.

Andrey Rublev – statistics & current form

The 2022 French Open almost ended for Andrey Rublev before it really began. After a set of missed chances in the first round against Soon-Woo Kwon, he fired a ball at his bench and missed by only millimetres a helper who was just clearing the court. Thus, it remained only a warning (including a roaring chorus of whistles from the audience) instead of disqualification.

Four sets each needed

The realisation came quickly and at the press conference the 24-year-old apologised for his appearance. The frustration relief had had an effect, however, as the world number seven decided the next three rounds in his favour. Rublev also had to drop a set in the second round against Federico Delbonis and in round three against Cristian Garin. Against Garin, the match could have been overturned, because the Chilean was already ahead with a double break in set four and missed no less than five set points in the tiebreak. One of them with an extremely simple volley error.

What was striking about Rublev in the first week of the tournament was the low percentage on his first serve. In all three matches, less than 60 percent of his first serves found their way into the court. When it comes, Rublev dominates the rally, but with such a rate, it could well be close against Sinner. A clear match in favour of one player is not to be expected anyway and accordingly, a forecast on the bet Over 38.5 Games offers itself in the top match Andrey Rublev against Jannik Sinner.

Jannik Sinner – Statistics & current form

The young star from Sesto made headlines even before the French Open when it became public that the 20-year-old had signed a long-term advertising contract with sporting goods manufacturer Nike that is expected to earn him 150 million dollars. Financially, the Italian is already well provided for, but from a sporting point of view, his journey is far from over. He is currently knocking on the door of the world’s top ten.

Knee injury is causing concern

In contrast to Andrey Rublev, Sinner only had to drop a set in the second round against Spain’s Roberto Carballes Baena, and he beat the Americans Björn Fratangelo and Mackenzie Mcdonald in three straight sets. He proved, especially on Saturday, that he has nerves of steel and can fall back on his best tennis in decisive situations. He had to fend off no less than eleven set points (!) against Mcdonald in the second set.

It was noticeable in Sinner’s first three matches that his serve has improved considerably. Serving was by no means one of the Italian’s strengths so far, but there has been an improvement in recent weeks. Since working with ex-professional Simone Vagnozzi, his serve is much more varied than it was a few months ago.

In his third round match, Sinner had to play with a bandaged knee and needed the physiotherapist twice. Although he gave a slight all-clear afterwards and is in good spirits to be fit on Monday, a bet on Rublev against Sinner can only be made with a bookmaker who guarantees a cashback if he retires.

Andrey Rublev – Jannik Sinner Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to Head: 1:2

The first duel in October 2020 between the two players was short-lived, as Jannik Sinner had to retire injured after only three games played in the second round of Vienna. The young Italian won each of the two sporting duels.

Both in the quarter-finals of Barcelona 2021 and a few weeks ago in the third round of Monte Carlo, the 20-year-old had the upper hand. Both of these duels were played on clay, which makes it all the more surprising that higher odds are being offered on the Italian between Rublev and Sinner.

Andrey Rublev – Jannik Sinner tip

With a yearly record of 28:7 (Rublev) and 27:7 (Sinner), the two players have been almost identical this season. A win for either player would be tantamount to a second quarter-final appearance at the world’s biggest clay-court tournament. The Italian, who has also won both of his direct clay-court duels, has performed more confidently so far.

Despite that, Rublev is considered favourite against Sinner according to current odds, which is especially due to the knee bandage and the twice physio on Saturday. The danger that Sinner is not in full possession of his powers is definitely there. However, should Sinner be able to call up his level, we see him at an advantage, which was also seen in Monte Carlo.

With the protection of a cashback in case of a due surrender (every bookmaker handles it differently), the forecast on the Italian is alluded to with six units between Rublev and Sinner.