Will the Spanish shooting star wobble in the last 16?
Shooting star Carlos Alcaraz stormed into the last 16 of the French Open not entirely without a wobble, but largely with aplomb. The 19-year-old thus remained victorious in his 13th consecutive singles on the ATP Tour and confirmed the role of favourite, which not a few experts have already attributed to him in a remarkable year so far.
In Karen Khachanov, the Spaniard now faces a player who has reached the last 16 in five of his six French Open appearances. The further it went and the more famous the opponents became, the quicker it was the end of the line for the Muscovite. In the run-up to the duel between Karen Khachanov and Carlos Alcaraz, the odds are now also in favour of the Spaniard.
Only once before has Karen Khachanov reached the quarter-finals of the French Open, which is also due to his poor record against top 10 players. The Muscovite could only win ten of 43 duels. So there is a lot to be said for the Spanish shooting star, who recently beat all the superstars on clay from Djokovic to Nadal, continuing his run.
Nevertheless, we assume that the Russian will win one or two games, which is why we favour the Asian handicap of +8.5 games on the Muscovite for Karen Khachanov against Carlos Alcaraz.
Karen Khachanov – Statistics & Current Form
Current position in the world ranking: 25
Position in the seedings: 21
The 26-year-old Russian Karen Khachanov made his breakthrough in 2018 in particular, when he managed to win three ATP Tour tournaments at once – including his biggest success to date at the Paris Masters.
However, since that Masters tournament in France, in which the Muscovite beat Novak Djokovic 2-0 in the final, Khachanov has not been able to record another tournament victory. His most recent loss was to Gael Monfils in the final in Adelaide at the beginning of the year.
Khachanov’s win percentage against Top 10 players is 23.3%
The reason why the Russian has not been able to establish himself in the Top 10 and must continue to wait for breakthrough successes is primarily to be seen in his weak record against Top 10 players.
Karen Khachanov has faced a Top 10 player 43 times so far. The Muscovite was only able to win ten of these matches, which corresponds to a weak win rate of just 23.3%. After three wins at the French Open, it should be correspondingly difficult against the current high-flyer Carlos Alcaraz in the last 16.
76% of all break points fended off in the third round
Betting sites also see the Russian as the clear underdog, whose record for the year is not exactly fearsome at 18 wins compared to 13 losses.
After all, the number 25 in the ATP world rankings was convincing with his nerves against Cameron Norrie. The Briton earned 21 break points, of which Karen Khachanov was able to fend off no less than 16 (76%). The Muscovite, on the other hand, took eight of his own 14 chances for a break.
Carlos Alcaraz – statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 6
Position in the seedings: 6
The 19-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz has become an absolute high-flyer on the ATP Tour in recent months.
First, Carlito shone at the Sunshine Double when he reached the semifinals in Indian Wells and won his first Major title in Miami. And then the man from El Palmar also came up trumps in the clay court season.
31 of 34 singles won in 2022
The clay court season began with a 2-1 loss to Sebastian Korda in Monte Carlo. However, Carlos Alcaraz remained unbeaten in the following 13 singles on his favourite surface. Particularly impressive: With Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas, he beat four current ATP top 5 players during this period.
After winning the titles in Barcelona and Madrid, the shooting star has a record of 31 wins from 34 singles matches in 2022 and is therefore no longer one of the secret favourites at the French Open, but one of the hot contenders for the big prize.
Without dropping a service game in two out of three games
Accordingly, Karen Khachanov’s betting on the 19-year-old’s entry into the quarter-finals against Carlos Alcaraz is also under a good star.
The Spaniard did not surrender a single service game in either the first or third round of this tournament.
Only in the second round against compatriot Alberto Ramos Vinolas did Carlito have to give up six service games against a strong return player. The fact that the shooting star still managed to win 3:2 is due to his own return qualities. After all, Alcaraz earned himself 31 break points, of which he converted eight.
Karen Khachanov – Carlos Alcaraz Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 0:0
Both players will face each other for the first time in the Round of 16 of the French Open. As such, there is no head to head data available to factor into the prediction for Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz
Karen Khachanov – Carlos Alcaraz Tip
Carlos Alcaraz has won 31 of his 34 singles matches in 2022 and is currently unbeaten in 13 matches on clay, beating four of the current top five players on the ATP Tour. He is therefore favoured in his clash with Karen Khachanov, who has rarely been able to keep up with top-10 players and has a winning percentage of just 23.3% in these duels.
Never the less, we think the Russian can take a game or two off the Spanish shooting star. On average, Khachanov scored on his opponent’s serve more than 40% of the time during the tournament. Given the 19-year-old’s lack of experience, the Moscow player’s victory is not completely out of the question either.
