Will Burnley turn the corner without Dyche after all?

When the fans in attendance at Turf Moor loudly welcome their team including coach on Thursday night, the supporters will be roaring Mike Jackson’s name rather than Sean Dyche’s for the first time in nine and a half years. The Clarets’ long-serving head coach and success coach was relieved of his duties on Good Friday and replaced on an interim basis by the U23 coach. On his debut at the weekend, Jackson immediately managed a passable 1-1 draw.

Thursday evening, at best, the first three points should follow, after all, the red wine team is in dire need of every point in the fight for relegation. At the moment, they are three points behind the relegation zone (as of Wednesday morning). Should the Burnley vs. Southampton clash once again fail to pay off, the air in the bottom of the table will become thinner and the starting position more and more hopeless.

From the home side’s point of view, the fact that only one of the last six home games against the Saints has been lost gives hope. Apart from that, the team of coach Ralph Hasenhüttl has not necessarily covered itself with glory on the road. That is one of the reasons why the bookmakers believe in an even match on equal terms and offer almost identical odds on both teams before the clash between Burnley and Southampton.

Burnley – Statistics & Current Form

Burnley have been a fixture in the English Premier League since 2016. Only rarely have the Clarets had to deal with serious relegation worries during this period. The best result in 2017/18 was seventh place in the final standings. All these milestones will forever be associated with Sean Dyche, who has been head coach in Lancashire since 2012 and was surprisingly sacked less than a week ago.

In the first game under the new management of reserve coach Mike Jackson, the Wine Reds immediately snatched a point at Europa League semi-finalists West Ham. If Maxwel Cornet had added a penalty just before half-time to make it 2-0, a three-point win would even have been possible. Nevertheless, the performance gives hope that non-relegation may still be secured. Everton are currently three points behind. In addition, the Toffees have a game in hand.

Burnley need wins

There is no settling in period or grace period for the interim coach. Already on Thursday evening at home against Southampton a win is needed. The Clarets want to build on their performance from the last home game, which they won 3-2 against their direct rivals Everton.

But anyone who believes that the Clarets regularly provide a lot of spectacle in front of their home crowd is mistaken. In the run-up to that win, the relegation candidates had managed just two goals of their own in a total of eight previous encounters at Turf Moor. In an overall league comparison, only the bottom team from Norwich has scored fewer goals.

Wout Weghorst and Co. also have the third weakest home attack in the Premier League. Just 13 goals were scored in 15 home matches. Only in five of these matches at home the over 2.5 would have gone through, which is why we think it is very clever to bet on under 2.5 goals on Thursday night between Burnley and Southampton. Mike Jackson will definitely have to do without Ashley Westwood due to injury. Gudmundsson, Pieters and Mee are also unavailable. The latter, however, will step into the role of co-coach from the bench as captain.

Predicted Burnley line-up:
Pope; Roberts, Collins, Tarkowski, Taylor; McNeil, Cork, Brownhill, Cornet; Rodriguez, Weghorst

Last matches played by Burnley:

Premier League
17/04/2022 – West Ham 1 – 1 Burnley

10/04/2022 – Norwich 2 – 0 Burnley

07/04/2022 – Burnley 3 – 2 Everton

02/04/2022 – Burnley 0 – 2 Manchester City

12/03/2022 – Brentford 2 – 0 Burnley

Southampton – Statistics & current form

Without a doubt, Southampton Football Club is one of the biggest wonder bags in the English Premier League. Week in, week out, it’s hard to place bets on the Saints’ matches. A fortnight ago, for example, nobody would have expected Hasenhüttl’s team to lose 6-0 at home to Chelsea. Equally unexpected, however, was the 1-0 home win against Arsenal last weekend.

We will be curious to see what the twelfth-placed team in the table will look like on Thursday evening. In any case, it is too risky for us to make a prediction on a three-goal win for Burnley against Southampton in view of their varied performances. Particularly in view of the fact that in the past six appearances at Turf Moor only one victory has been achieved. However, because this was achieved in pre-season, a back-to-back win at Burnley for the first time in 15 years now beckons.

What face will the Saints show this time?

The prerequisite for that, however, is a better defensive performance than in the last few games. Before the aforementioned 1-0 win against the Gunners, keeper Forster had conceded a whopping 15 goals in five games.

Moreover, he has not managed a clean sheet in 13 Premier League matches played during the week (Tuesday to Thursday). Now, with regard to these statistics, one could argue that there are quite a few goals at Turf Moor, but we think it is more realistic for Hasenhüttl’s team to build on the defensive performance from the game against Arsenal.

On the other hand, it should be remembered that the Saints have only scored 17 goals of their own away from home and have only scored more than once in one of their last five away matches. Consequently, it comes down to playing the odds on sub-par goals in the Burnley versus Southampton clash. It is quite possible that the Austrian coach will make another system change and return to a 4-4-2. With the exception of substitute keeper McCarthy, all players are ready for action.

Predicted line-up of Southampton:
Forster; Livramento, Bednarek, Salisu, Walker-Peters; S. Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Romeu, Elyounoussi; Adams, Broja

Last matches played by Southampton:

Premier League
16/04/2022 – Southampton 1 – 0 FC Arsenal

09/04/2022 – Southampton 0 – 6 Chelsea FC

02/04/2022 – Leeds 1 – 1 Southampton

FA Cup
20/03/2022 – Southampton 1 – 4 Manchester City

Premier League
13/03/2022 – Southampton 1 – 2 Watford

Burnley – Southampton Direct comparison / H2H record

The first leg between these two teams provided an unexpected spectacle. Thanks to two Cornet goals, the Clarets eventually took home a 2-2 draw at St. Mary’s Stadium. It was only the fourth meeting in the past ten direct duels in which more than two goals were scored.

In fact, at Turf Moor, seven of the last nine Premier League meetings between these teams have ended with two goals or less. Only in three of these nine cases did both teams score. Perhaps, therefore, it can also be recommended to bet on the “BTS – No”.

Burnley – Southampton Tip

For Burnley Football Club, nothing else is at stake in the coming weeks than staying in the league. Admittedly, the current situation is anything but optimal, because with one more game played, the gap to the saving bank is three points. With Everton’s direct rivals also possessing far greater quality, the Clarets will need a minor footballing miracle to avoid relegation for the first time since 2014.

If we take a look at the betting odds before Thursday night’s match between Burnley and Southampton, it becomes clear that the bookmakers do not have a clear favourite. Slightly lower quotes are offered on the away win, although the Saints have only won one of their last six matches at Turf Moor. They have also only managed a single treble in their last five PL away games.

We therefore deliberately refrain from betting on the three-way market and instead play the under 2.5 tip between Burnley and Southampton. The home side have one of the weakest offences in the league. The Saints have also not yet pulled up any trees offensively away from home. The majority of the recent direct duels have also ended in low-scoring matches.