Porto look to get back in front at home
While FC Porto are well on their way to wrapping up the championship in the Portuguese league, their Europa League round of 16 opponents Olympique Lyon are lagging far behind their own standards at national level.
With a view to the performances shown in league play, the first prediction in the first leg at the Estadio do Dragao between Porto and Lyon must be in the direction of the home side. Nevertheless, the internationally experienced guests have the potential and the quality to create a promising starting position for themselves.
The fact that Peter Bosz’s team not only finished first in the group stage, but also won all three away matches, should definitely be taken into account. However, this impressive statistic does not change the fact that lower odds are being offered on the home win ahead of Wednesday night’s first leg between Porto and Lyon. The CL relegated side are rated very highly in front of their home crowd.
Porto – Statistics & current form
Before the last matchday in the UEFA Champions League group stage, FC Porto had every chance of progressing. With Liverpool beating AC Milan in a parallel match, a draw at home to Atletico Madrid would have seen the Portuguese side through to the last 16 in second place. However, coach Conceicao’s team lost this decisive match 3-1 and will have to make do with the second most important European club competition from now on.
That, however, should not be too difficult, as the Blue and Whites won the Europa League title once before in 2011. The last time the port city side took part was in 2019/20, when they were defeated by Bundesliga side Leverkusen after the first and second legs. In the round of 16 between Porto and Lyon, a tip on the ‘Dragons’ progressing is rewarded with a 1.90, which we would recommend in good conscience.
Porto still without defeat in 2022
Especially in the first leg, there is a lot to suggest that the leaders of the Portuguese Primeira Liga, who have won 20 and drawn four times in 24 league games and are therefore still completely unbeaten, will enjoy a full sense of achievement. This is also supported by the exciting home statistics in the European Cup, which show that Porto have won five of the seven times they have played their first match at home in the knockout phase.
On a positive note, the home side have already played international matches at a good level against Lazio Roma in the past two weeks. The 2-1 home win was followed by a 2-2 draw in the Italian capital.
In addition, the offensive can be seen really well. Porto have failed to score in only two of the 40 matches they have played this season. In addition to the aforementioned top form, which is also reflected in the fact that they have not lost a single match in 2022, the very appealing attacking play is definitely an argument for predicting a first-leg victory for the hosts between Porto and Lyon.
Predicted Porto line-up:
D. Costa; Mario, Pepe, Mbemba, Sanusi; Otavio, Vitinha, Uribe, Galeno; Evanilson, Taremi
Last matches played by Porto:
Liga Portugal
03/06 2022 – Pacos de Ferreira 2 – 4 FC Porto
Cup
03/02 2022 – Sporting CP 1 – 2 FC Porto
Liga Portugal
02/27 2022 – FC Porto 1 – 1 Gil Vicente
Europa League Final Stage
02/24 2022 – Lazio Roma 2 – 2 FC Porto
Liga Portugal
02/20 2022 – Moreirense 0 – 1 FC Porto
Lyon – Statistics & current form
Before the season, Olympique Lyon had set their sights high. With Peter Bosz on the bench and a certain Jerome Boateng in defence, two ex-Bundesliga players also play a not insignificant role at the French top club. At the same time, however, they are both partly responsible for the fact that the Gones have been a disappointment at national level so far.
After 27 match days, they are only in ninth place. Nevertheless, the gap to the European Cup places is only three points, so that there is still hope of seeing the Lyonnais on the international football stage in the coming season. The extremely mixed performances in Ligue 1 come as a surprise, by the way, as Bosz’s side have delivered much better performances in the Europa League.
Lyon hope for international face
Critics would now claim that the degree of difficulty of the preliminary round group with Brøndby, Glasgow Rangers or Sparta Prague was limited. But the optimists are right to argue that 16 of a possible 18 points have been taken and that, with the exception of the last game against Rangers, they have always scored at least two goals of their own. Consequently, it is also worth considering the odds on a goal or two between Porto and Lyon.
However, their current form is nowhere near as good as that of their opponents. Although the dress rehearsal was victorious at the weekend with a 4-1 win in Lorient, it was only the second victory in the past five league games. Only one clean sheet in the last six matches in the French top flight and a total of 33 goals conceded (19 of them away from home) are proof of the defensive vulnerability that the Portuguese’s top attack will certainly know how to exploit.
Predicted line-up of Lyon:
Lopes; Gusto, Boateng, Lukeba, Emerson; Caqueret, Aouar; Faivre, Paqueta, Toko Ekambi; Dembele
Last matches played by Lyon:
Ligue 1
03/04 2022 – Lorient 1 – 4 Lyon
02/27 2022 – Lyon 0 – 1 Lille
02/19 2022 – Lens 1 – 1 Lyon
02/12 2022 – Lyon 2 – 0 Nice
02/05 2022 – AS Monaco 2 – 0 Lyon
Porto – Lyon Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Four must-win matches have already been played between the two multiple champions of their country on the international stage. With the exception of a 1-1 draw in the 2003/04 CL Round of 16 in France, Porto have won every match, including a friendly in the summer of 2021, when the Portuguese side won 5-3 after 90 exciting and spectacular minutes, meaning they have never lost to OL.
Porto – Lyon Tip
The first two of seven remaining round of 16 matches in the Europa League will be played on Wednesday evening. The first leg between Porto and Lyon will take place at the Dragon Stadium. According to the betting odds, there is no clear tendency to see which of the two clubs is given the better chance by the bookmakers to enter the quarter-finals.
For the first match, however, we see the Portuguese at an advantage. On the one hand, because they have already proven their ability in the Champions League this season and eliminated Lazio Roma from the competition in the last two weeks. On the other hand, also because of their momentum, confidence and current condition.
OL are playing a disappointing season in Ligue 1 and are revealing major weaknesses, especially defensively. This could turn out to be a problem against the attack-minded Dragons, after all, Conceicao’s eleven scored in 38 of 40 competitive games this season.
We have therefore decided to place a bet on a home win between Porto and Lyon.
