Will the Foxes make it out of the crisis?

In the motherland of football, the FA Cup matches are on the regular programme this week. But there is also a league match on the agenda in the English Premier League, as the catch-up game between Burnley and Leicester takes place at Turf Moor. A mammoth programme awaits the two teams in the coming weeks and months.

Sean Dyche’s Clarets have three games in hand, Leicester have four and are also in the UEFA Europa Conference League. The Foxes, who have been disappointing in the league of late and are in danger of missing out on the international starting places, are in for a shock. But for the home side, too, this clash will set the tone, as a point could see Burnley climb above the ominous line

The hosts have been on an upward trend of late, going three consecutive games without defeat. The momentum is in favour of the home side, but the quality is in favour of the visitors. Burnley vs Leicester odds are offered at 3.00 for the home win, with the visitors win tempting at 2.50.

Burnley – Statistics & current form

Will Burnley FC actually be rewarded for their continued faith in Sean Dyche? Dyche has been head coach at the Clarets for over nine years and has experienced some highs and lows with the club. However, Burnley’s situation has never been as precarious as it is this season in the last six years since their promotion to the Premier League.

Three games without defeat

There have been more than enough arguments to relieve Dyche of his duties in recent months. After all, Burnley won only one of 21 league games – and yet the club always had a realistic chance of staying in the league. On the one hand, the competition has not been convincing either, and on the other, Burnley have always had the knowledge that they had a few catch-up games up their sleeve.

With every failure, the pressure became even greater, but recently they finally managed to get out of the crisis. The 3-0 away win against Brighton & Hove Albion was confirmed with a sensational 1-0 home win against Tottenham before a 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace last weekend. Seven points from three games provides plenty of hope, as the gap to the safety of the seventh tier is now just one point on 21 points. Should they win their home game against Leicester, Burnley would win two home games in a row in the Premier League for the first time since December 2020.

2.17 goals per game

The make-up game at Turf Moor will almost certainly be one in which the offensive lines will find few finishes. In Dyche’s 24 league games so far, there has been an average of just 2.17 goals per game on show. For a relegation candidate, 30 goals conceded in 24 games is a very good figure, but the attack with 22 own goals is the big problem. Only Norwich, at the bottom of the league, have scored less often. Therefore, a bet on Burnley against Leicester is that not both teams will score and also the under 2.5 is a good option.

Predicted line-up of Burnley:
Pope – Pieters, Mee, Tarkowski, Roberts – Lennon, Brownhill, Cork, McNeil – Weghorst, Jay Rodriguez

Last matches played by Burnley:

Premier League
02/26 2022 – Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Burnley

02/23 2022 – Burnley 1 – 0 Tottenham

02/19 2022 – Brighton 0 – 3 Burnley

02/13 2022 – Burnley 0 – 1 Liverpool FC

02/08 2022 – Burnley 1 – 1 Manchester United

Leicester – Statistics & current form

Brendan Rodgers’ Foxes have only played 23 league games and thus still have a whole four catch-up games up their sleeve. Accordingly, 13th place in the table is to be taken with a pinch of salt, but one cannot deny that the current season has been very disappointing. Compared to last year, the team has 16 points less. The last time there was a worse points tally than the current 27 was in 2016/17.

Five league games without a win

Despite this, the Foxes must not (or should not) write off their international ambitions quite yet, because on the one hand, the team is considered one of the hottest title contenders in the new Conference League, and on the other hand, the gap to the competition can be significantly reduced with a winning streak. However, Rodgers’ side must finally achieve a turnaround, as they have gone without a win in their last five league games.

A longer series of winless games in the English football top flight was last seen in February 2019 (six games without a win). The absence of veteran Jamie Vardy has certainly played a part in the misery. Despite his 35 years, he is still extremely important for the Foxes and is the top scorer with nine goals. When Vardy has been in the starting eleven this season, Leicester have won 40 per cent of their games; when Vardy has not been involved from the start, there has only been one win in eight games. Vardy will not be available on Tuesday due to a thigh injury.

Leicester had a weekend off

One argument in favour of the visitors, however, is certainly their physical advantages. After their Conference League success at Randers, Leicester were off again last weekend as league opponents Chelsea were active in the League Cup final. This gave them a chance to recharge their batteries after an intense few weeks, which undoubtedly played into the hands of Leicester’s busy players.

On a more positive note, it is now March again. In the third month of the year, the Foxes have the best winning record. Leicester have played 50 league games in the Premier League this month, winning 21 of them. There have been 13 wins (three draws, one defeat) in the last 17 March games. Value is definitely a given when predicting Burnley vs Leicester on the visitors given these numbers.

Predicted line-up of Leicester:
Schmeichel – Thomas, Söyüncü, Amartey, Pereira – Tielemans, Ndidi, Soumare – Lookman, Daka, Albrighton

Last matches played by Leicester:

European Conference League Final Stage
02/24 2022 – Randers FC 1 – 3 Leicester

Premier League
02/20 2022 – Wolverhampton 2 – 1 Leicester

European Conference League Final Stage

02/17 2022 – Leicester 4 – 1 Randers FC

Premier League
02/13 2022 – Leicester 2 – 2 West Ham

02/10 2022 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 Leicester

Burnley – Leicester Direct Comparison / H2H Record

In the recent past, the joy of scoring 1-0 was short-lived. In the last five games, the team that scored the first goal of the match did not win a single time (three draws, two times there was even a defeat). The last time the Foxes took the lead was in March 2019 and they ended up winning. The direct comparison in the Premier League also favours the visitors, who have won six of their 13 previous games (four draws, three Burnley wins).

Burnley – Leicester tip

It was unthinkable just a few days ago, but by now the momentum in the relegation battle is actually in Burnley’s favour. After three games without defeat, confidence has returned and the catch-up games now actually represent an advantage. The next game is on Tuesday and Dyche’s side could finally climb above the ominous line.

The Turf Moor hosts Leicester, a team that has been disappointing in the league lately. However, there is no doubt that Rodgers’ eleven has much more to offer than Burnley and that is why the betting on Burnley against Leicester also goes in the direction of the visitors. There is a certain amount of risk, but given the difference in quality, 2.50 for an away win is far too high. An absolute value bet, where a stake of six units is recommended.