Does ‘El Tri’ have to play it safe?
In the eleventh matchday of the 3rd round of the CONCACAF World Cup Quali 2022, current third-placed Mexico will host fourth-placed Panama. Eli Tri” is only one point ahead of the Canaleros. Accordingly, it is important that the Mexicans avoid a home defeat at all costs, which would see them fall to the ungrateful fourth place. A win at home, on the other hand, would be like taking a big step towards Qatar.
However, the Mexican side goes into this match in poor form. “El Tri” won only one of their last four qualifying matches. The Panamanian side, meanwhile, have won three of their last four matches. Nevertheless, the odds are clearly in favour of the hosts in the run-up to the clash between Mexico and Panama.
Mexico were held to a goalless draw by Costa Rica at home on Monday. Once again, “El Tri” struggled to score goals. Now they face the second best attacking team in the CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers. In view of the fact that a defeat must be avoided, the Mexican team must not act too offensively.
There is much to be said for a tactical duel between two defensively oriented teams. We therefore recommend betting on less than 2.5 goals for Mexico against Panama.
Mexico – Statistics & current form
The Mexican national football team is one of the strongest nations in the CONCACAF association. Accordingly, the last time “El Tri” failed to qualify for a World Cup final was in the run-up to the 1982 World Cup.
The last time the Mexicans took part in seven World Cups in a row, they always made it past the preliminary round before, curiously, ending up in the round of 16 at all seven events. Now the eight-time Gold Cup winners are heading for their next World Cup participation.
Four out of a possible twelve points from the last four qualifiers
The Mexicans have not exactly covered themselves with glory in recent international matches. Mexico have only managed to win one of their last four qualifying matches (one draw, two defeats), with the duels with the USA and Canada in particular bringing two painful defeats against the current group heads in the 3rd round of World Cup qualifying.
Accordingly, the ticket for Qatar is not yet booked, which would be endangered in particular by another home defeat against Panama. A win at home would be correspondingly important, whereby “El Tri” would already be able to defend third place with a draw.
Only eight goals conceded in ten qualifying matches
The plus point for the Mexican side is certainly their generally solid defence, which has only conceded eight goals in ten qualifying matches. Most recently, coach Gerardo Martino’s team kept a clean sheet against Costa Rica.
However, because they failed to score any goals of their own in the forward play, a goalless draw was on the record on Monday evening, leaving “El Tri” standing still. This interplay between a lack of offensive penetration and defensive stability also favours a bet of less than 2.5 goals in the duel between Mexico and Panama.
Mexico’s likely line-up:
Ochoa – Gallardo – Moreno – Montes – L. Rodríguez – C. Rodríguez – Álvarez – Herrera – Lozano – Corona – Jiménez
Last matches played by Mexico:
World Cup Qualifiers CONCACAF Finals
01/31 2022 – Mexico 0 – 0 Costa Rica
01/28 2022 – Jamaica 1 – 2 Mexico
Friendly match
12/09 2021 – Chile 2 – 2 Mexico
World Cup Qualifier CONCACAF Finals
11/17 2021 – Canada 2 – 1 Mexico
11/13 2021 – USA 2 – 0 Mexico
Panama – Statistics & current form
The Panamanian national football team had to show a lot of patience, but then made it to a World Cup for the first time in history four years ago. Admittedly, the Canaleros did not make it past the preliminary round at the 2018 World Cup in Russia.
Nevertheless, the number 63 in the FIFA world rankings tasted blood at the last finals and would now love to make regular appearances on the biggest possible stage in the world. An endeavour for which an experienced coach has been installed in the shape of Thomas Christiansen in 2020.
Only one point behind USA and Mexico
Although surprisingly, the Panamanian selection did not make it past the preliminary round at the 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup under the new coach. At least in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, however, the Canaleros are still on course.
Five of the ten qualifying matches were won. This gives Panama the second most wins in the 3rd round of CONCACAF qualifying behind Canada. They are just one point behind the USA and Mexico, both of whom could theoretically be overtaken with an away win in Mexico City.
The second best attack in CONCACAF World Cup Quali
Accordingly, the Panamanian national team will have to play to win a bit away at the Estadio Azteca. Given their attacking prowess – with 14 goals, Panama have scored the second most in the qualifying round – there could well be something to be gained in Mexico City.
However, the Canaleros cannot afford to play with their sights wide open. A defeat would increase the gap to a place in the World Cup to four points. At least the betting companies do not trust the supposed underdogs to pull off a coup.
Predicted line-up of Panama:
Mejía – Davis – Andrade – Escobar – Murillo – Godoy – Carrasquilla – Quintero – Bárcenas – Yanis – Blackburn
Last Games of Panama:
World Cup Qualifiers CONCACAF Finals
01/30 2022 – Panama 3 – 2 Jamaica
01/28 2022 – Costa Rica 1 – 0 Panama
Friendly match
01/16 2022 – Peru 1 – 1 Panama
World Cup Qualifier CONCACAF Finals
11/17 2021 – Panama 2 – 1 El Salvador
11/13 2021 – Honduras 2 – 3 Panama
Mexico – Panama Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 15 – 6 – 2
The two nations have faced each other a total of 23 times so far and with 15 victories, “El Tri” leads the direct comparison very clearly. In the first leg, however, the Canaleros held the Mexicans to a 1-1 draw at home in Panama City on 8 September 2021.
Mexico – Panama Tip
Mexico vs Panama is generally predicted to go to the Mexicans, who have won just one of their last four qualifiers and were held to a goalless draw by Costa Rica at the Estadio Azteca. They have too often lacked attacking punch in the current qualifying round, which is a factor that could well come into play against in-form Canaleros, who have won three of their last four qualifiers.
We expect “El Tri” to be primarily defensive-minded, as a home defeat would be the absolute “worst case” from Mexico’s perspective, while a draw would defend third place against their main rivals. It is true that goals are not out of the question. However, a goal festival is very unlikely.
