Will the Chiefs live up to their role as favourites?

After this unbelievable Divisional Games weekend all NFL fans have to come down a bit. They don’t have much time for that, though, because the next highlight is already on the agenda on Sunday night, when the Chiefs host the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.

The conditions are clear: Kansas City is the clear favourite in their own stadium, especially if we take their outstanding performance against the Bills as a template. The Bengals are the underdogs, which is understandable considering their O-line performance against the Titans.

The NFL doesn’t work quite that simply, but there’s still a lot to be said for the Kansas City Chiefs going to the Super Bowl for the third year in a row. Unless their defence plays consistently like it did in the fourth quarter against Buffalo.

However, we believe in a learning effect for the Chiefs and so for Kansas City vs. Cincinnati our prediction is a home win for the favourites in a game where some points should be scored again. The first meeting in Week 17 saw 65.

Kickoff of the AFC Championship Game is Sunday night at 21.00 in Kansas City. This can be watched live on ProSieben or on DAZN.

Kansas City Chiefs – Statistics & current form

This is why we love football. The Chiefs divisional game against the Bills will undoubtedly go down as one of the best playoff games in NFL history. For the performance, but also for the excitement and craziness.

For instance, the Chiefs were also on the verge of a shutout with 13 seconds left in regulation. They had exactly those 13 seconds to make two big plays, but all Pat Mahomes needed was ten seconds to get Harrison Butker in field goal range.

The rest is history and then in overtime Mahomes showed why he is considered a legitimate GOAT successor. This game against Buffalo will give the Chiefs a real emotional boost, making them the top favourites for the Super Bowl.

Revanche against the Bengals is coming up

In addition, the matchup with Cincinnati also holds further explosiveness. After all, they were the ones who broke the AFC’s No. 1 seed on the penultimate day of play. With a 34:31 victory in an also very entertaining game.

Two points have changed a lot since then, though. One, the Chiefs are now playing at home in the loudest stadium in the league, and two, the Bengals’ O-line is currently a shambles that won’t be mended by Sunday.

What face does the Chiefs defence show?

So the most intriguing point for Sunday will be how the Chiefs defense can dominate this vulnerable Bengals O-line. Or can it at all? Because against the Bills, this was exactly the part of Kansas City’s team that gave them the biggest stomachaches.

Just two numbers as an example: they allowed 12.2 yards per play against the pass and all opposing fourth down attempts were successful (4 of 4). Such a poor performance could also have consequences against Joe Burrow, as he is only slightly inferior to Josh Allen.

Since we expect Mahomes to work his magic again on Sunday, it all depends on the Chiefs’ defence. However, since we believe that they will improve considerably, we recommend betting on Kansas City in the Chiefs vs.

Key Players:
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
WR: Tyreek Hill
TE: Travis Kelce
K: Harrison Butker

Cincinnati Bengals – stats & current form

The Bengals have tied the knot in the playoffs. After 31 years of not winning a postseason game, they now managed to win two in a row. However, it was again very close against the Titans and they will not get a beauty prize for this victory.

But that doesn’t matter to them, because a win is a win and that’s exactly the motto they should use against their next opponent. Especially offensively the Chiefs seem to be much more potent than Cincinnati.

O-Line in disastrous form

But for it to be even a balanced game, some things have to change. First and foremost, their offensive line has to get back on track. They allowed an unbelievable nine sacks against the Titans, which was a negative record for playoff games.

The fact that the Bengals still managed 19 points in the end was solely due to the talent of Joe Burrow and kicker Evan McPherson. However, they shouldn’t rely too much on that, and 19 points won’t be enough against the Chiefs 99.9% of the time.

In addition to the nine sacks, they also lost 68 yards, the equivalent of almost an entire drive. As a result, only field goals could be kicked and only one touchdown was scored. Against the Chiefs, that will be too little.

Running game needs to be installed

Another point that desperately needs to improve is their own running game. Of course, this is again related to the weakening O-line, but the Bengals’ play calling also needs to be questioned here. With Joe Mixon’s speed, they should run a play or two more on the outside.

If they can do that against a susceptible Chiefs defence, then a surprise is possible. However, only if they can show well over 100 rushing yards at the end. Since this is not very likely, the odds against Cincinnati are more bettable for Chiefs vs. Bengals – even with a lead for Kansas City of up to seven points.

Key Players:
QB: Joe Burrow
RB: Joe Mixon
WR: Ja’Marr Chase
WR: Tee Higgins
K: Evan McPherson

Kansas City Chiefs – Cincinnati Bengals Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

This is the second meeting between these two teams in 2022, as they already faced each other in Week 17. On that occasion, the Bengals prevailed 43-32 and with four wins from the last five duels, they have a very good record against Kansas City overall.

However, they have only won once in Kansas City in the last ten years (2012) and Patrick Mahomes was nowhere to be seen then. Winning against Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium is almost an impossibility.

That’s how we see it, too, and we’re going with the Chiefs on this one. For Kansas City vs. Cincinnati, the betting odds for the Chiefs -7 prediction are our 1 betting option followed by a bet on the Chiefs to lead after every single quarter.

Kansas City Chiefs – Cincinnati Bengals Tip

Both teams are coming off extremely close wins and the Chiefs’ success in particular may have taken some emotional grit as well. Nevertheless, they are considered the clear favourites, as Mahomes and Co. have already mastered some of these situations in recent years.

For the Bengals, on the other hand, a conference championship game in this millennium is uncharted territory and so they and Burrow will be correspondingly nervous. For Chiefs vs. Bengals, a tip on the favourites is thus clearly to be favoured. In combination with over-points, the value could even be increased significantly.

An additional betting alternative for this Chiefs vs. Bengals matchup is to bet on a touchdown by Tyreek Hill.