Do the Eagles shake off their away slump?
This weekend, the motherland of football once again hosts a Premier League match on Friday night. Starting at 9pm, Brighton and Crystal Palace face each other at the AMEX Stadium. Two teams that are not among the top teams, but are in the safe midfield of the league.
The hosts from the south of England are currently four points ahead of the Eagles from Selhurst, despite having played one less game, and are in a very respectable ninth place in the table. Especially recently, the form curve showed a clear upward trend and accordingly, the bookmakers see the bet on the home win in the match between Brighton and Crystal Palace as the most likely outcome.
The Eagles’ poor away record certainly favours this bet, but are these significant odds in favour of the home side really justified? After all, two teams are facing each other that are basically on a similar level of performance.
Brighton – Statistics & current form
Having lifted the club to the next level – it’s hard to get higher praise. Graham Potter has earned this praise, most recently from Brighton legend Gary O’Reilly. The Seagulls’ football transformation has paid off. After two PL years of “kick-and-rush” (2017/18 and 2018/19), Potter took over and provided more and more playful solutions. The reward is the best first half of the season ever, with the Seagulls having 27 points after 19 games played. The previous record at this point in the season was just 22 points.
Negative run stopped – turnaround achieved
At the same time, fans have to ask themselves what could have been possible this season. After a fantastic start to the season with four wins from the first five league games, Brighton went without a win eleven times in a row. Despite this negative run, the club was allowed to continue working in peace and this confidence paid off recently. In the last three games, the Potter eleven collected seven of the nine possible points. In addition to wins against promoted Brentford and Everton, there was a remarkable 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge.
Six goals were scored in these three games. By comparison, it took Brighton & Hove Albion ten league games to score six times. Momentum is certainly an argument that underpins the prediction of a home win for Brighton against Crystal Palace on Friday night. Another argument is that the Seagulls have gone the last four Friday matches in the English football top flight all without conceding a goal (three wins, one draw).
Personnel situation is tight
Concerns are also present in the Seagulls camp, however, because like almost every team, Brighton are also struggling with some personnel problems. The absences of captain Lewis Dunk (injured) and six-man Yves Bissouma (away at the Africa Cup) weigh heavily. Therefore, 20-year-old Moises Caicedo was recalled from his loan from Belgium on Wednesday to give Graham Potter enough options.
Predicted Brighton line-up:
Sanchez – Cucurella, Burn, Webster, Veltman – Mac Allister, Moder, Lallana, Mwepu – Maupay, Trossard
Last Brighton games:
FA Cup
01/08 2022 – West Bromwich Albion 1 – 2 Brighton
Premier League
01/02 2022 – Everton 2 – 3 Brighton
12/29 2021 – Chelsea London 1 – 1 Brighton
12/26 2021 – Brighton 2 – 0 Brentford
12/15 2021 – Brighton 0 – 1 Wolverhampton
Crystal Palace – Statistics & current form
What Crystal Palace are experiencing this season is what Brighton & Hove Albion fans saw three years ago. Ultra-defensive football was done away with and more emphasis was placed on playmaking. In the post-Roy Hodgson era, the Eagles also presented themselves far more playful. The signature of the French former world champion Patrick Vieira is clearly recognisable. The only drawback is the fact that this has not yet been reflected in points. After 20 matchdays, Crystal Palace have the identical points tally as last season.
Zaha, Ayew & Kouyate were at the Africa Cup
With a twelve-point lead over the first relegation spot, the London team can continue to develop their game without any major sporting pressure. In the coming games, however, Patrick Vieira will be forced to improvise. With superstar Wilfried Zaha (Ivory Coast), Jordan Ayew (Ghana) and Cheikhou Kouyate (Senegal), three important players are away at the Africa Cup in Cameroon.
A year ago, these absences would hardly have been compensated for. It still means a loss of quality, but this can now be absorbed well. Conor Gallagher is the top scorer with six goals and three assists, and the 20-year-old Michael Olise has been in convincing form lately. This also applies to Odsonne Edouard, who has collected five points in his last four games. With many young, talented players, Crystal Palace deliver attractive football. These absentees can now ensure that the big talents take on even more responsibility.
TGIF – Thank God it’s Friday? Not!
On paper, it’s not just the absentees that are an argument for refraining from betting on the visitors at Brighton against Crystal Palace, but certainly the away record. Only six of the 23 points were collected by the Vieira eleven away from Selhurst Park. The team’s only away win came at champions Manchester City. In addition, Crystal Palace have never won a game on Friday night in Premier League history. In seven attempts, there have been three draws and four defeats.
Predicted Crystal Palace line-up:
Guaita – Mitchell, Guehi, Andersen, Ward – Schlupp, Milivojevic, Hughes – Edouard, Benteke, Olise
Last matches played by Crystal Palace:
FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Millwall 1 – 2 Crystal Palace
Premier League
01/01 2022 – Crystal Palace 2 – 3 West Ham
12/28 2021 – Crystal Palace 3 – 0 Norwich
12/26 2021 – Tottenham 3 – 0 Crystal Palace
12/15 2021 – Crystal Palace 2 – 2 Southampton
Brighton – Crystal Palace Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
The Seagulls from Brighton do not necessarily have good memories of the Eagles from London. In the last five Premier League games Brighton could not celebrate a single victory against the team from the capital (three draws, two defeats). The home advantage also only exists on paper, as four of Brighton’s last seven home games against Crystal Palace ended in defeat. According to the direct comparison, a tip in the direction of the visitors is provided with value for this weekend’s PL opener between Brighton and Crystal Palace.
Exciting fact on the side – in the last three league games between these two teams there was a goal in injury time. A late goal could therefore also be a very interesting betting opportunity in this match. Bet365, the bookmaker we tested, offers a bet on whether a goal will be scored after 71:59 minutes played – the statistics say yes.
Brighton – Crystal Palace Tip
The Seagulls’ three most recent league games, the two “Friday stats” in the Premier League and also the absences of the visitors are certainly arguments that underline the betting on the home win on 14 January between Brighton and Crystal Palace. Nevertheless, it is not recommended, because a 2.10 has no value despite these circumstances. The Eagles are also something of a fearful opponent for Brighton, who have failed to win five in a row.
In addition, the personnel situation is not only tense for the visitors, but also Graham Potter cannot rely on his best possible team. The role of favourite in favour of Brighton is certainly justified in view of the points listed above, but not to this extent. Therefore, in the Draw no Bet bet between Brighton and Crystal Palace, the forecast on the visitors is very interesting. Here, the risk is significantly minimised by the cashback on the draw and a 2.80 is still offered. The possibility of winning and the probability of occurrence are in a very good ratio here.
