Etabliert sich Union als Leverkusen Angstgegner?
After the winter break, which this time lasted only three weeks, the Bundesliga kicks off the second half of the season next weekend. Bayer Leverkusen had some wounds to lick under the Christmas tree. Wounds that the Rhinelanders more or less inflicted on themselves. After a first half of the season that was strong for long stretches, only a single point came out of the last three Bundesliga games in the calendar year 2021.
Instead of gaining a small lead on the Europa and Conference League ranks, coach Seoane’s team even dropped to fourth place and now needs a good second half to return to the top flight. A complicated task awaits in the first competitive match of the new year, although lower betting odds are offered on the home side between Leverkusen and Union Berlin.
The fact that the Eisernen have no need to hide is underlined by the fact that the capital club has only conceded four defeats so far this season, which is even one less than their upcoming opponents. As a result, it is quite difficult to make a prediction on the outcome of the match between Leverkusen and Union Berlin. So it tends to be better to look at the goal market.
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
For the third time in the last five years, Bayer Leverkusen finished the Hinrunde with exactly 28 points. However, while 2017/18 and 2019/20 both saw only fifth place in the final standings after 34 matchdays, this time around those responsible for Rudi Völler, who is in his final six months in a leading position, and Simon Rolfes are hoping for a final place among the top four.
This ambitious goal can certainly not be ruled out, but it will nevertheless be of elementary importance that coach Gerardo Seoane gets a better balance into his team’s play in the second half of the season. Although the 40 goals scored at this stage are the second best in the club’s Bundesliga history (43 goals in 2001/02), they have also conceded 28.
Seoane has to improvise defensively
With these numbers in mind, it’s almost self-explanatory that we think betting on a few goals in the course of the game on Saturday afternoon between Leverkusen and Union Berlin is a good solution as well. In twelve of Bayer’s 17 games, both teams managed to score, and a bet on the over 2.5 would have gone through in twelve cases as well. Both betting options are therefore equally recommendable for the match against the Köpenicker.
If you want to delve even more specifically into the matter, you should take note of another interesting statistic. Indeed, the Werkself has scored the most goals in the opening quarter hour, while Union are one of the most vulnerable teams in the opening 15 minutes of the game, conceding six goals. If Bayer are already ahead after ten minutes, a 7.50 in the top can be played on via the Bet365 app. In addition, improved super odds are also offered for this match at Bet365.
Another factor that should not be neglected for the weekend is the tight personnel situation. With Tapsoba and Kossounou, two centre-backs are away at the Africa Cup, while Aranguiz, Amiri, Fosu-Mensah and Baumgartlinger are all absent due to injury, as is the suspended Kerem Demirbay. All the more hopes rest on 16-goal man Patrik Schick, who, however, has never scored against Union.
Predicted Leverkusen line-up:
Hradecky – Frimpong, Tah, Hincapie, Bakker – Palacios, Andrich – Adli, Wirtz, Diaby – Schick
Last matches played by Leverkusen:
1st Bundesliga
12/19 2021- SC Freiburg 2 – 1 Bayer Leverkusen
12/15 2021- Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 2 Hoffenheim
12/12 2021 – Eintracht Frankfurt 5 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
Europa League Grp. G
12/09 2021 – Ferencvaros 1 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
1st Bundesliga
12/04 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 7 – 1 Greuther Fürth
Union Berlin – statistics & current form
Although Union Berlin are now only in their third consecutive season in the Bundesliga, it already feels as if the Eisernen have long been an old hand in the top flight. The fact that the capital club has never finished worse than eleventh after the first half of the season certainly contributes to this. Coach Urs Fischer’s men are currently in seventh place, just one point lower than in the first half of the 2020/21 season.
For the Swiss coach, however, the chasing duel on Saturday afternoon is not only about an important three points in the race for the European starting places, but also about the fight against his own demons. Indeed, Fischer is still waiting for his first away treble at a club also coached by a Swiss.
How does the Awoniyi absence make itself felt?
For the match between Leverkusen and Union Berlin, a prediction on a coup by the Köpenicker is of course still associated with a certain risk, especially as the Eisernen lost their first second-round match in each of the last two seasons. Fun Fact: FC St. Pauli are the only team in Bundesliga history to go without points in their first three first league matches on matchday 18.
It could therefore be an interesting alternative to look at the odds between Leverkusen and Union Berlin that both teams will score. After all, 24 goals have already been scored in the eight previous visits by Fischer’s team. In no less than six cases, betting on the “BTS” would have paid off. The only two exceptions were the games against promoted Fürth (0:1) and Bochum (1:0).
Especially against the supposed top teams, however, there was usually spectacle from Berlin’s point of view, such as the 2:4 in Dortmund, the 2:5 against FC Bayern or the 2:2 at TSG Hoffenheim. With Becker and Wszolek, two players are on the list of those absent due to viruses. The most serious, however, is definitely the absence of Taiwo Awoniyi, who has left for the Africa Cup. Without the most dangerous attacker, Max Kruse will have to carry the offence. In this respect, it gives hope that the ex-national player’s last four goal contributions have all come from away games.
Projected line-up of Union Berlin:
Luthe – Friedrich, Knoche, Baumgartl – Trimmel, Haraguchi, Prömel, Gießelmann – Kruse – Voglsammer, K. Behrens
Last matches played by Union Berlin:
1st Bundesliga
12/18 2021 – Vfl Bochum 0 – 1 Union Berlin
12/15 2021 – Union Berlin 0 – 0 SC Freiburg
12/12 2021 – Greuther Fürth 1 – 0 Union Berlin
Europa Conference League Grp. E
12/09 2021 – Union Berlin 1 – 1 Sl. Prague
1st Bundesliga
12/03 2021 – Union Berlin 2 – 1 RB Leipzig
Leverkusen – Union Berlin Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Five matches have been played between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin in the Bundesliga so far. After the Werkself won the first two games, the Eisernen have remained unbeaten against the Rhinelanders three times in a row. Including all encounters in the DFB Cup, these teams have scored an average of more than three goals per match. In the majority of cases, betting on “both teams to score” would have been crowned with success. This was also the case in the first leg, which ended in a 1-1 draw on matchday one.
Leverkusen – Union Berlin Tip
In terms of the standings, one of the most interesting games awaits us at the BayArena on Saturday afternoon as the second leg of the Bundesliga kicks off. The fourth-placed team receives the seventh-placed team in its own stadium. Only one point separates Leverkusen and Union Berlin. Nevertheless, the betting odds are clearly in favour of the Europa League eighth-finalists.
Although we also think a home win for Seoane’s team is the most likely outcome, we think it is even more interesting to bet on a goal or two being scored. On the one hand, because the Werkself, with 28 goals conceded already, looks anything but stable defensively and also has to do without two regular centre-backs. On the other hand, because the offensive has outstanding quality and is always good for goals.
In six of the eight away matches both teams scored. On average, the capital club scored three goals per game; in Leverkusen’s home games, the average was even more than four. From a purely statistical point of view, an attacking game seems anything but unrealistic.
We therefore play the betting between Leverkusen and Union Berlin that both teams will score.
